Fallacious Trump

In the fortieth episode we explore the Texas Sharpshooter fallacy, starting with Trump talking about new job numbers, claiming he intended the UN to laugh at him, and tweeting the only good metric from a very bad poll.In Mark's British Politics Corner we look at the post hoc claims of YouGov's polling methodology, and rival recruiting firms' very different takes on the same data..In the Fallacy in the Wild, we check out examples from Numb3rs and Derren Brown, and also talk about an XKCD comic and five-thirty-eight's p-hacking tool.Jim and Mark go head to head in Fake News, the game in which Mark has to guess which of which of three Trump quotes Jim made up.Then we breakdown some 2020 predictions from Psychic Nikki and speculate on how she achieves her amazing success rate.And finally, we round up some of the other crazy Trump stories from the past week.The full show notes for this episode can be found at our new website at http://fallacioustrump.com/ft40You can contact the guys at pod@fallacio