Art Of Boring

The Epistemology of Investing: A Near Insurmountable Challenge | EP133

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Synopsis

Why genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges.   Highlights: Context setting: What does “epistemology” mean, and why did we get excited about it in relation to investing? What is knowledge? How do you create it? The two founding blocks: Inductive and deductive reasoning A contrast in knowledge approaches and evolutions—e.g., the airline industry vs. astrology The resonance behind the learning, trying to “win by not losing” How we aim to build knowledge by “closing the loop” on inductive learning: Journaling, timestamping, governance (and the Mawer Lab) Forecasting tournaments and “adjacent games” Also: Learning isn’t cost free Drawing from the wisdom of crowds—what conditions help foster learning within an organization? ChatGPT and AI: Potential implications for the learning process in investing