Macro Horizons

Trade tensions are mounting, accelerating the post-FOMC risk off sentiment. China let the yuan depreciate beyond 7 per dollar. US Treasury has formally labelled China a Currency Manipulator. 10yr Treasury yields have fallen by over 30bp this past week. The front-end is pricing two full rate cuts and a decent chance of a third before year-end. Credit spreads are wider and swap spreads are narrower. How much further will China let the yuan fall? What are the implications for the US economy, rates and spreads? How will Canada be impacted if the Fed cuts sooner or by more than the market expects?