Trend Talks With Itr Economics

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest retail sales data and what it reveals about consumer resilience despite rising energy costs. With gasoline prices surging, many businesses are questioning whether demand can hold and how long margin pressure may persist. Lauren also examines growing political tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve, including leadership transition uncertainty and what it could mean for future interest rate direction. As confirmation battles unfold, businesses are left navigating an increasingly unclear policy environment.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by fellow Economist Tara Bayke to break down the growing risk of “profitless prosperity.” As the economy expands through 2026 and beyond, many businesses may see rising revenues but shrinking margins due to persistent cost pressures. From surging material and energy costs to labor challenges and AI investment, where should leaders focus to protect profitability? And what role will the Federal Reserve play as inflation pressures continue? Tune in for a timely discussion on how to prepare for growth while safeguarding your bottom line. Are you ready to grow profitably in the years ahead? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00 Trends Report Free Trial → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/trendsreport-free-trial

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the growing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership and what it could mean for market stability. With questions around Chair Powell’s term, potential legal challenges, and political pressure, businesses are left wondering how much confidence they can place in the Fed’s independence. Lauren also highlights a key economic indicator tied to business-to-business investment that is showing stronger-than-expected momentum. What does this signal about the direction of the economy and future demand? If you are trying to plan ahead in an environment shaped by both political uncertainty and shifting economic signals, this episode offers critical insights without the noise. Will markets continue to trust the Fed if political pressure intensifies?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down how AI is reshaping the labor market and why white-collar industries are seeing a different impact than blue-collar sectors. While many businesses are investing heavily in AI, layoffs and workforce shifts are not happening evenly across the economy. What does this mean for hiring, wages, and long-term workforce strategy? And why are some industries seeing more stability despite ongoing labor shortages? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00 Trends Report Free Trial → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/trendsreport-free-trial

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major data week, including a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP and a sharp rise in inflation driven by geopolitical tensions. With CPI climbing and energy prices surging unevenly across markets, business leaders are facing a key challenge: how to manage rising costs without eroding demand. Lauren explores what these inflation pressures mean for pricing strategies, consumer behavior, and the broader economic outlook. While headlines point to volatility, the bigger question remains: will the Fed hold steady, cut rates, or be forced to act more aggressively? Watch now for key insights that can help you navigate uncertainty and make more informed decisions in the months ahead.

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Economist Taylor St. Germain breaks down why aerospace and defense are emerging as key growth opportunities while other manufacturing sectors face ongoing challenges. With civilian aircraft production forecasted to grow at a leading pace and defense orders accelerating into 2027, where should businesses be focusing their time and investment? If your industry is facing slowing demand or uneven recovery, this episode highlights where momentum is building and how to think strategically about diversification. Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines how rising oil prices are complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move and what it means for businesses trying to plan in an uncertain environment. As energy costs climb, companies face margin pressure while consumers feel the strain at the pump. But does this inflationary shock justify higher interest rates, or could it slow growth enough to force rate cuts? Lauren also breaks down the latest retail sales data, revealing why strong headlines may be masking underlying weakness in consumer demand and what that signals for the months ahead. If you are navigating pricing pressure, demand uncertainty, or planning for the second half of 2026, this episode highlights the key signals you need to watch. Will rising costs force a shift in Fed policy, or will the economy absorb the shock?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the surge in AI investment, now exceeding $560 billion, and what it really means for businesses navigating rising labor costs and workforce shortages. While some industries are rapidly adopting AI, others are falling behind. What does this gap mean for your strategy? Discover where AI is gaining traction, why smaller firms are lagging, and why AI may not be the solution many expect for labor challenges in key sectors. Check out Brian and Connor's webinar presentation → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Brian Beaulieu examines why rising producer prices and ongoing global uncertainty may keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in 2026. With inflation pressures tied to oil and commodities still building, many businesses are struggling to separate headlines from reality. Brian breaks down what the data actually shows, why the Fed may stay cautious, and how shifting expectations could impact your planning strategy. He also shares insight into bond market stress, employment trends, and what companies should be doing now to protect margins before inflation accelerates again. If you are trying to make informed decisions in an uncertain environment, this episode will help you focus on what truly matters and avoid reacting to misleading signals. Are you planning based on headlines, or on the data that actually drives your business?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain breaks down encouraging signs in manufacturing and capital expenditure growth, offering a much-needed positive outlook after a prolonged downturn. But with economic uncertainty beginning to rise again, how confident should businesses be in their 2026 plans? Learn what the latest data is signaling, where growth is coming from, and what risks could impact your strategy moving forward.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down why the Fed held rates steady and what shifting market expectations signal for the year ahead. With rate cuts now pushed further into the future, many business leaders are asking: are we prepared for higher-for-longer interest rates? Lauren explores the growing possibility that the Fed’s next move may not be a cut at all. She also unpacks rising oil prices, inflation risks, and why today’s energy costs may not hit the economy as hard as in the past. Plus, insight into internal Fed debates and what leadership uncertainty could mean for policy direction. Are markets underestimating the risk of sustained or even rising rates?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the recent surge in oil prices following escalating tensions in the Middle East and what it means for businesses and consumers. With oil briefly pushing above $100 per barrel, many leaders are asking whether this spike signals sustained inflation and economic pressure. Taylor shares ITR Economics’ updated oil price forecast and explains why history suggests these price spikes may not last as long as headlines imply. He also explores how higher energy prices could affect consumer spending, retail sales, and business margins in the months ahead. Join ITR Economics Chief Economist Brian Beaulieu and Senior Forecaster Connor Lokar in our Executive Webinar on March 20 → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

Want to Learn about having "you're own" ITR Economist on your team?→ https://promotions.itreconomics.com/en-us/insights-from-itr-economics Don't miss our Executive Webinar on March 20th→ https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest inflation data and what it means for the Federal Reserve’s next move. With CPI and Core CPI still running above the Fed’s target, inflation remains stubbornly persistent, raising new questions for businesses and consumers alike. Lauren also examines how rising geopolitical tensions and potential disruptions in global oil supply could influence energy prices and consumer budgets. While the impact may be temporary, the combination of higher energy costs and growing electricity demand from AI and data centers could complicate the Fed’s path toward rate cuts. What does this mean for inflation trends, business planning, and the likelihood of interest rate relief this year? Wa

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain shares an update on the commercial construction outlook and why the industry may have already passed its cyclical low. While the data still shows contraction, key leading indicators suggest momentum is building for growth later this year. What signals should contractors and construction suppliers be watching right now? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker unpacks February’s surprising jobs report and explains why one weak headline number doesn’t necessarily signal trouble for the economy. With job losses making headlines and uncertainty lingering, many leaders are asking the same question: Is the labor market starting to crack? Lauren breaks down what’s really behind the data, from temporary healthcare job losses to ongoing labor shortages in key industries like manufacturing and construction. She also explores why wages are still rising and what that means for inflation, interest rates, and the Federal Reserve’s next move. For business leaders navigating slower growth and persistent inflation, the bigger risk may be something ITR calls “profitless prosperity.” What does that mean for your strategy in 2026? Are you making decisions based on headlines, or on what the data is actually telling us?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines the rapid growth in electricity infrastructure and what it means for your business strategy through 2030. With data center construction in 2025 and record highs in electric power transmission and distribution production, demand for energy is reshaping industrial markets. Rising electricity costs are adding pressure to margins and contributing to inflation in the second half of the decade. How should you position your business to capitalize on electrification growth while protecting profitability? Tune in for the data, the risks, and the long term opportunity.

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Locar breaks down January’s hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index report and what it means for interest rates as we head into March. With inflation data coming in warm and money supply growth accelerating at the fastest pace in nearly four years, the likelihood of a near-term rate cut appears to be fading. At the same time, bond yields are dipping below 4 percent, raising new questions about growth expectations and market sentiment. Add in the latest 10 percent tariff action under Section 122 of the 1974 Trade Act, and businesses are once again facing pricing uncertainty. If you are trying to plan capital spending, manage borrowing costs, or protect margins in an environment of persistent inflation pressure, this episode will help you frame what matters most right now. Are markets signaling confidence, or concern?

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the latest labor market data and what it means for your workforce strategy in 2026. While employment growth is slowing, wage inflation remains elevated above historical norms, creating ongoing margin pressure for businesses. We examine industry specific wage trends, regional disparities, and why a role by role and state by state approach is critical in today’s environment. As the economy positions for growth in 2026 and 2027, is now the time to act on hiring and compensation strategy?

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major Supreme Court decision striking down the administration’s use of emergency powers to impose tariffs, and what that means for inflation, business costs, and economic uncertainty ahead. With fourth quarter GDP coming in at 1.4% and core PCE inflation rising to 3%, headlines are painting a mixed picture. Is growth really faltering? Are inflation pressures reaccelerating? And how should business leaders interpret the latest data amid shifting trade policy? Lauren unpacks what is signal versus noise, why government shutdown effects matter, and why inflation may not fade as quickly as some hope. Most importantly, she explains why the tariff ruling does not automatically mean lower prices for businesses and consumers. If you are navigating margin pressure, pricing strategy decisions, or concerns about profitless prosperity, this episode offers critical context. What does this ruling really mean for your cost structure in 20

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the downgrade to the 2026 US Single-Unit Housing Starts forecast. Despite lower mortgage rates and moderating home prices, affordability challenges remain a major headwind for builders, buyers, and industry suppliers. Why are most states still facing income deficits when it comes to buying a home? When will meaningful recovery begin? And which regions are positioned to outperform even in a down cycle? Tune in for the data-driven outlook and strategic insights to help you plan for 2026 and beyond. How is your region preparing for continued housing market pressure?