Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Michael Kelly, portfolio manager and global head of multi-asset at PineBridge Investments, says that investors should expect volatile choppy markets -- moving sideways at best -- while the economy pivots away from the rising inflation and interest rate trend, but that investors shouldn't expect much good news until at least May of 2023. Kelly says that he expects China to pivot on some of its policies early in 2023, which will make its economy and stock market the only market with higher cash flows and an easier central bank come springtime, encouraging investment there while the rest of the world markets are volatile and choppy. He also suggests that investors will want to take the reasonable yields they can get on bonds while waiting for the equity markets to improve. Also on the show today, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi goes international with a trend-following pick for his ETF of the Week, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com discusses all of the action around jobs and the labor mar

Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that fallout from the current global supply-chain crisis will be a worldwide shift to there is going to "near-sourcing," the ability to have suppliers closer to home, which will lead to Corporate American spending money to make it happen, which should benefit industrial companies and energy stocks moving forward. Those sectors plus health care should be leading as the market and economy head into a volatile 2023 that McKnight says may not include a recession if the Federal Reserve gets its moves right. Also on the show, Bankrate.com analyst Sarah Foster returns to the show to discuss how inflation has been hitting some of the biggest holiday expense items hard and how higher costs could be the Grinch to steal Christmas traditions this year, plus we revisit a recent chat all about the financial and banking sectors with David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large-Cap Financial and Hennessy Small-Cap Financial funds.

Glory Liu, author of "Adam Smith's America: How a Scottish Philosopher Became an Icon of American Capitalism," says that people evoking the famous economist's memory to support their thinking are typically wrong about his teachings, noting that the patron saint of capitalism had a lot of ideas that have mostly been forgotten by leaders and politicians trying to appropriate his fame and use it as an endorsement. She suggests it might be a warning sign as to what is being promoted using Smith as a tool. Also on the show, Patrick Fisher, founder of Creation Investments Capital Management, discusses active ESG investments in banking, micro-loans and fintech in underserved parts of the world, plus retirement planner Jeremy Keil of Keil Financial Partners talks about the impact that sustained inflation is having on senior clients and how people can respond and plan to get through price hikes.

Eric Boughton, portfolio manager/chief analyst at Matisse Capital -- which runs mutual funds that invest in closed-end funds -- says that investors can find attractive discounts in a few sectors right now, notably in municipal bonds, high-yield and bank-loan funds are worth investigating in fixed income, with foreign stocks and MLP funds (investing in master limited partnerships) leading the opportunity set in equities. Boughton notes that investors can do significant "discount capture" -- making profitable trades as discounts to net asset value narrow and change, using that volatility as an additional way to generate profits. Also on the show, Bankrate.com analyst Sarah Foster discusses the pressure consumers are feeling -- and especially younger shoppers -- to spend up this holiday season, plus we revisit a late October interview with Chris Davis, portfolio manager and chairman of Davis Advisors, a conversation Chuck has described as "one of the very best interviews we will do on the show this year."

It's Black Friday, ahead of Cyber Monday and the start of the home stretch for holiday shopping, but it's not just about what's happening with retailers. John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors sorts through the big discounts in the closed-end fund world right now and comes up with four issues -- two in stocks and two in fixed-income -- that would be sound additions to an investor's holiday wish list now. Then the talk turns to retail fraud as Melanie McGovern of the International Association of Better Business Bureaus, discusses how online fraud losses thus far in 2022 have hit record levels of nearly $400 million before the holiday shopping season even gets up to speed, then Julie Ramhold of DealNews talks about the differences between Black Friday and Cyber Monday and how consumers can make the most of both days and the rest of the holiday bargains, plus Chuck discusses steps that listeners can take to keep the holidays in perspective during times of rising interest rates and

Colin McWey, portfolio manager at Heartland Advisors, says that current market conditions are setting up well for value-oriented investors, because it is clear that many companies e market is building a scenario where a lot of companies will be worth much more in three to five years, although a number of stocks that were overpriced in 2020 and '21 will never re-attain past highs. The wash-out of companies that had a disconnect between fundamentals and enormous expectations was necessary, McWey says, but now the market is going through a healthy cleansing where the market is starting to respect a valuation discipline again, focusing on fundamentals in order to realize that profit potential as the market rebounds in the next few years. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a dividend-income fund with a covered-call strategy his pick for ETF of the Week, Regina Conway of Slickdeals discusses consumers' shopping expectations for Black Friday and hedge-fund manager Steven Grey of Grey Value Management talks

John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says that the market has reached a key point, and he believes the lows the market made in June and retouched in October -- in the 3,500 range for the standard & Poor's 500 -- will stick, and last several quarters. He remains positive on the market for now, noting that his key indicators remain green, but notes he won't be surprised if the market re-tests those lows before moving forward again in 2023. Also on the show, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management, discusses the rising cost of the "12 Days of Christmas," noting that inflation in the firm's Christmas Price Index is running even higher than inflation elsewhere in the economy, and how that reflects current events and broad economic conditions, author Paul Tucker discusses his new book, "Global Discord: Values and Power in a Fractured World Order" and, in the Market Call, Hank Smith, head of investment strategy at The Haverford Trust Co., discusses large-cap companies wi

Brian Overby, senior markets strategist at Ally, says that the market is in a good place to have a Santa Claus rally into the end of the year, boosted by the strong consumer, but he noted that good news could carry into 2023 with an economy that could actually pull off a soft landing so long as employment, inflation and spending numbers stay where expected and continue current trends. Overby noted that while current conditions are rocky, it makes for a selective buying opportunity while waiting for the Federal Reserve to show its cards for the new year. Also on the show, Marc Zeitoun of Columbia Threadneedle discusses a survey showing that advisers and investors are looking for more flexible strategies to get by in rough markets, David Trainer of New Constructs puts a low-priced maker of oat milk and similar products in "The Danger Zone" and, in the Market Call, Bernie Horn, manager of the Polaris Global Value Fund talks about buying stocks in the messy market conditions currently being experienced around the

Jacob Channel, senior economist at LendingTree, says that while everyone is counting on the Federal Reserve to beat back inflation and tackle the economic problems facing the nation, 'the reality is that some of the issues we are facing aren't the kind of issues that the Fed has the ability to fix." He warns that if global supply chains struggle, prices will remain high no matter what happens with interest rates, and a worst-case scenario would be stagflation where unemployment is rising but prices email high; while that is not his base case for what's next, he expects a recession in 2023 as the price paid for getting a handle on inflation and returning the economy to more normal times. Also on the show, Michael Grayson, portfolio manager for three interval funds from First Trust Capital Management, says that investors should be giving up some liquidity to get the flexibility to invest in assets that their standard mutual fund or ETF can't hold responsibly, allowing investors to generate decent returns at tim

Barry Metzger, managing director of trading and education at Charles Schwab, says that the firm's latest trader sentiment survey shows that nearly 60% of traders feel like the United States is already in a recession or will be in one by the end of the year, with nearly that entire group believing that the economic slowdown will last less than one year. These traders -- investors who make 80 or more transactions in a year, but not part of the day-trading community -- are largely bearish, but believe there are opportunities in energy, health care and consumer staples. They are rotating toward value stocks and fixed income. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about a fund that was up double-digits just a week ago off of the inflation news, a move so big that it moved the ETF above its 200-day moving average and put it back into buying territory. Chuck answers a listener's question on cryptocurrency trading and the concept of "not your keys, not your coins," and the show revisits a recent interview

Jeff Spiegel, U.S. head of iShares megatrend and international ETFs at BlackRock, says that high inflation is not a megatrend that will last decades, but it has created an environment in which investors will want to be more selective, looking for compelling reasons for long-0term growth. Specifically, he identified infrastructure and clean energy plays, health-care innovation and cybersecurity and robotics as industries with the juice to grow now but the potential to keep growing for decades. Also on the show, Rachna Ramachandran, an analyst on the high-yield strategies team at GMO, says that junk bonds yielding 9 percent today are priced as if default rates could reach 14 percent, dramatically higher than even the most bearish observers expect, which ultimately is making it worthwhile for investors to take on more high-yield risk. And Chuck goes Off the News with veteran financial columnist Allan Sloan of The Washington Post, who notes that the storied stock winners of just a year ago -- the FAANG stocks mos

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that while there are real positives to take away from recent market activity, the lag effect from Federal Reserve actions will slow growth, earnings and profit margins sufficiently to create a small recession in the spring or summer of 2023. She recommends selectively managing portfolios to add balance, but warns against "taking wild swings at this market because things can change too quickly and you'll get caught on the wrong side of that." Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Turner Research says that most of the indications he is seeing on the secular trend are negative right now, which is why he is keeping powder dry waiting for signs that there is more potential for real upturns rather than short bear-market rallies. Plus, Vern Sumnicht, chief executive officer at iSectors.com, makes his debut in the Market Call talking exchange-traded funds. 

Amber Fairbanks, portfolio manager at Mirova on the firm's global sustainable equity strategy, says that she thinks a recession is coming, likely early next year and while she expects it to be mild, investors and experts are mostly guessing at that because there is no real precedent for the kind of high inflation, rising rate environment we are seeing today. Fairbanks, speaking in the Market Call segment, also talked about sustainable equities, which is a good comparison for the Big Interview segment featuring Venk Reddy,  chief investment officer for sustainable credit strategies at Osterweis Capital Management, who also noted that market conditions are going to favor active managers who can separate the worthy credit investments from the ones that will get caught up in negative market conditions. Plus, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits a recent Danger Zone pick that he says has joined the walking dead of zombie stocks, and Christian Mitchell discusses a recent Northwestern Mutual survey showing that

Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that buying smart in the stock market requires making investments when they feel bad, which despite this week's rally is still the case today. He foresees some recessionary troubles for 2023, but thinks the recovery from a bear market will be "normal" and likely accomplished within two years. Thus, even while he warns that earnings and conditions will look worse in the short run, the long run will benefit people who keep investing now. Likewise, Buck Klintworth, senior vice president at Chase Investment Counsel, thinks that the overwhelming evidence in the market is that this week's rally is not the start of a new bull market, but rather is a reprieve in a  downturn that has longer to run. He too believes that there are good opportunities among some sectors that don't look great in current conditions, but which might lead the way next year.  Also on the show, Mitchel Penn of Oppenheimer & Co. discusses the ups and downs of business development c

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund and the Dividend and Income Fund, says that investors have to adjust their psychology to recognize that it is a preserve of value, and while it has struggled this year in its traditional role as a hedge against inflation, it will hold up well against bonds, where investors have been lured by higher yields that look good but can't keep pace with inflation. Winmill says central bankers around the world have been buying it and that they have a good track record for timing a recovery, which he thinks will happen gradually ove the next three to six months as the dollar weakens. Winmill notes that investors who have tried to use cryptocurrency instead of gold as an inflation hedge have suffered much larger losses than gold investors this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com takes an unusual step -- pegged to this week's election -- as his pick for ETF of the Week is influenced by politics, and Mike Bailey, director of research at FBB Capital Partners, talks abou

Joe Kalish, chief macro strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the Federal Reserve will begin scaling back its rate hikes by March, creating a good environment for bonds and cash to generate a real return with minimal risk. But first, he says the stock market will likely rally down the final stretch of 2022, but that because the  stock market has never bottomed ahead of the start of a recession he expects a reversal that takes out the lows before the Fed pivots and the market can start a slow recovery during or after a mild recession in mid- to late 2023. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index and how the crush of rising prices at the gas pump outshined the euphoria from dramatically rising stock prices in October, leaving investors feeling more down in the dumps than ever, plus, in the Market Call, Tom Plumb, chief executive officer at The Plumb Funds, talks stocks and valuation and market changes in the current high-in

Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, says that inflation could begin dropping next year while unemployment remains low, conditions which run counter to the traditional recessionary playbook. He says that the reasons for inflation over the last few years could be unique to the Covid era -- fiscal stimulus, unusual supply chains, a shift in how people spend money moving from services to goods, war in Ukraine and more -- which could set up "a great scenario" and a potential soft landing. He sees the economy side-stepping recession until late next year or 2024, and sees strong potential investment opportunities in the interim. Also on the show, David Ellison, portfolio manager covering the financial services sector for the Hennessy Funds, says that Wall Street is in recession but the rest of the economy isn't, and while Wall Street wants that kind of pain -- because a recession is good for Wall Street -- he doesn't see that kind of downturn materializing right now, agreeing with Cleveland tha

Adam Ballantyne, senior analyst at Cambiar Investors, says the Federal Reserve needs to keep talking as if inflation is far from over because their job is to dare us into a recession or near recession to cure the economy's problems, but he notes that "The reality is we might be peaking right here." Half of the inInflation is driven by housing, energy and medicare costs, and Ballantyne says those items do appear to have topped or are near to it, meaning "It could very well be the case that the next Fed rate increase is the last one." Ballantyne believes that the economy can also post a reasonable recovery from the current troubles, because consumers are not overextended, so they will be ready to participate once they are certain that prices are again under control. Also on the show, Ted Rossman from CreditCards.com discusses the pitfalls that consumers have experienced and worry about when lending money to friends and family, David Trainer, of New Constructs revisits his troubling take on Shopify, which he put

Shep Perkins, chief investment officer for equities at Putnam Investments, says that once the Federal Reserve sees an uptick in unemployment and the economy slowing and cuts back on rate increases, the stock market will find a bottom and begin a sharp recovery once the all-clear is sounded. While investors will need to be patient waiting for that rebound to start, Perkins says there are plenty of compelling values for patient investors who are willing to wait for investments made into today's bad news to pay off in tomorrow's profits. Also talking about compelling values on today's show is John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, who says that today's rate uncertainty has created attractive entry points for some municipal-bond funds because they are trading at big discounts and, in many cases, have gone through a dividend cut, which reduces the potential for another cut moving forward. Plus, Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the market has reached a sweet

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that the Federal Reserve's forth jumbo rate hike of the year -- announced yesterday -- is not likely to trigger a deep inflation, but the central bank did leave consumers wondering just how effective the rate hikes will be at slowing and ending inflation. - hiking activity will end or, at least slow, the rise in consumer prices. Bory adds that while higher yields are not great for all financial assets, they do help fixed-income investors to generate a reasonable real return now. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi also delves into interest rates by making a short-duration bond fund his pick for ETF of the Week honors, andi n the Market Call, Simon Lack of SL Advisors returns to the show to discuss energy infrastructure and pipeline companies.