Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Two different market observers -- Patrick O'Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.cmo and Andy Kapyrin, co-chief investment officer at RegentAtlantic -- say that while the Federal Reserve telegraphed its strategy for tapering bond purchases and raising interest rates, how it follows through will determine just how volatile and troublesome the stock market will be in 2022. Both say they expect more volatility and lower returns, but they note that if the Fed must get more aggressive with rate increases and other strategies, it could change the outlook for earnings growth, which would mute the market's ability to keep moving. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks an esoteric new fund from a hot fund company as his 'ETF of the Week,' and Dean Brauer of GoHenry.com -- a site dedicated to making children financially capable -- discusses the money lessons that can be distributed along with the gifts this holiday season.

Steve Sosnick, chief strategist at Interactive Brokers, says investors should expect market conditions to be more uncomfortable next year than they have been in 2021, calling for a return to volatility that will include air pockets that can drop the market suddenly, and for more than a few days. That said, Sosnick does not expect the current news cycle from the Federal Reserve to dramatically change the market for the remainder of this year. Also on the show, Ted Rossman from Bankrate.com discusses a survey showing the perils of lending money to friends and family, Chuck takes an audience member's portfolio question, and Stephen McKee of the No-Load Fund Mutual Fund Selections & Timing newsletter talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.

Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners talks in the Market Call about the importance of changing asset allocations to overcome the low-yield environment, and maintaining the delicate balance between wanting to own funds that are the best in their category against the danger of moving in and out of funds too rapidly, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discusses the site's recent survey showing that consumers don't fully understand how deferred-interest programs work -- leading them to fall into classic financial traps -- and Vivian Tsai of the College Savings Foundation talks about how easy it has become for people to give a gift of college savings. Plus, we revisit a recent chat about the markets with Jack Ablin from  Cresset Capital Management.

Rodney Brooks, personal finance columnist at U.S. News and World Report -- author of "Fixing the Racial Wealth Gap" -- says that for all of the causes behind racial and ethnic wealth divides in America, the biggest, best solution is not government programs but basic financial education, literacy combined with opportunities so that, in time, minorities will not hold a nickel's worth of generational wealth compared to every dollar held  by white people. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, discusses the current rise in neutral sentiment among investors, David Trainer of New Constructs offers up a holiday gift -- an attractive stock instead of the usual troublesome ones -- in The Danger Zone, and Ben Johnson, director of global ETF research at Morningstar, talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call. 

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group, says that stock market valuations are at levels last seen at the peak of the Internet bubble, but that the number of stocks trading at highs is broader than it was back then. With that in mind, he expects a "return towards sobriety' for the market ahead, with high-priced growth and technology stocks likely to get market down significantly in 2022, while financials, energy and traditional value stocks have much better prospects ahead. Also on the show, Zach Jonson of Stack Financial Management talks about the high-risk environment that he sees based on key technical indicators, Harin DeSilva of 361 Capital discusses the changing volatility picture and how it should make investors think about getting defensive, and potentially balancing their long positions with short ones, and fund attorney Thomas DeCapo of Skadden Arps covers the changing backdrop for activism in closed-end funds in The NAVigator.

Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, says that with cash generating nothing, bond yields being paltry and interest rates and inflation on the rise, "it's not an easy market for allocators." McKnight says that his response for about the last six months -- despite heightened volatility and prospects for slower growth -- has been to overweight equities, tilted heavily towards domestic stocks, though he also sees developed international looking like more of an opportunity than emerging markets moving forward. Also on the show, Tom Lydon makes a top-rated municipal-bond fund his ETF of the Week pick, and, in the Market Call, Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management explains why he'd sell Apple shares -- despite liking the company and its products -- and the importance of properly valuing the businesses you are buying.

Neil Hennessy, president of Hennessy Advisors and the Hennessy Funds, says that despite legitimate worries over inflation, interest rates, the continuing pandemic and more, the economic underpinnings and stock market fundamentals are so strong that he believes the current rally has legs that will last well into 2022.  He does expect pullbacks and corrections ahead, "but it's not going to be the end of the bull market." Also on the show, Freddy Garcia, of Left Brain Wealth Management discusses year-end moves investors should be evaluating before the timing gets tight, Matt Zajechowski or Northstar Inbound talks about a survey done for HomeAdvisor.com looking at the surprising amount that homebuyers spend correcting "mistakes" made by their home's prior owner, and Chuck talks about stocks for the Christmas stockings this year, and which companies might be appropriate gifts for the young-uns in your life.

John Waggoner, financial editor at AARP.org, says that the return of volatility has investors on the edge, expecting a downturn that feels overdue, but he notes that economic conditions and the market are strong enough that people should just calm down, look at diversifying and keep on plowing ahead. Waggoner also gives his take on crypto investing, emerging markets and much more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. Also on the show, Yelena Shulyatyeva, senior U.S. economist at Bloomberg Economics discusses the National Association for Business Economics December outlook survey, which forecasts full-employment for the country by the end of 2022, though the status is not likely to be achieved by conventional methods; in the Market Call, Jerry Parker of Chesapeake Capital -- one of the original Turtle Traders -- talks about riding trends and which stocks he likes in current market conditions.

Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, says that the economy has such rock-solid fundamentals that periods of volatility and downturn remain opportunitie4s to jump in and expand your investment positions. That could change if the latest Covid variant takes off, if the Federal Reserve 'panics and raises interest rates' too soon or too far and more, but until or unless that happens, Gayle notes that he doesn't know anyone forecasting a recession next year, meaning 'the ground for further gains remains fertile.' Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts United Airlines in 'The Danger Zone' for overstating its earnings, author Harry Margolis discusses 'The Baby Boomers Guide to Trusts,' and we revisit a recent chat about the market with Ed Clissold, chief US strategist for Ned Davis Research.

John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says investors who have been conditioned to buy every stock market decline may want to be patient with current volatility, because the market hasn't busted through support levels. He worries that investors could sell now, only to have support hold up so that investors actually are getting out at the bottom 'and two weeks later they'll be pulling their hair out.' Kosar says the current decline should not be sold until the market moves dives a bit further. Also on the show, Parth Doshi, vice president of closed-end funds at Nuveen, discusses why investors might want to use new interval funds -- rather than traditional closed-end funds -- for their municipal bond holdings, Mark Hamrick of BankRate.com talks about the jobless claims numbers and what the report is signalling for the economy ahead, and James Abate of Centre Asset Management talks stocks in the Market Call.

Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that investors' only real chance to outrun inflation in these markets is with risk assets like stocks, though he says that investors are going to want to tilt to companies with pricing power to withstand inflation. Stone says that investors will still want to keep an allocation to bonds as a safe haven to help them through short-term volatility, but he says investors needing income must be aware of interest-rate and inflation risks even in looking for parking places for cash. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes one of the hottest funds in 2021 -- a niche fund trading in carbon emissions futures --  his 'ETF of the Week,' and author Casey Michel discusses his new book, 'American Kleptocracy: How the U.S. Created the World's Greatest Money Laundering Scheme in History.'

Rob Sharps, president and chief investment officer at T. Rowe Price, says that the stock market has mostly taken in stride and priced in the Federal Reserve reducing its bond purchases and raising interest rates sooner than had previously been expected, and that it can weather the inflation/rate-hike storm without a major bear market. Sharps worries that the economy will have to stand more on its own -- with the end of Covid stimulus packages -- to keep things moving, so he does expect some slowing, but he sees opportunities in small- and mid-cap stocks as the recovery slows its roll. Also on the show, Jeff Auxier, manager of the Auxier Focus Fund, talks about finding long-term buy-and-hold businesses at reasonable prices in the Market Call, and Ken Tumin, founder at DepositAccounts.com, discusses the banking fee structures that have been changed -- for better or worse -- as a result of the pandemic.

Joe Keefe, president of Impax Asset Management and the Pax World Funds, says that investors should be focused on good news about the economy, balancing out concerns with inflation and interest rates to come away expecting a pretty good year in 2022. Keefe doesn't expect the market to see the kind of high returns it has delivered this year, but he says the economy still has a lot of potential to grow to make the new year better than many expect. Among those not seeing great things ahead is Scott Crowe, chief investment officer at CenterSquare Investment Management, who says that Covid concerns, high inflation, the expectation of rising interest rates and more factors to lead to a 'mid-cycle slowdown.' Crowe also says of real estate markets that 'Office is the new retail,' meaning that demographic and other changes impacting the commercial real estate market are likely to be every bit as impactful on office space as the evolution of the Internet and at-home shopping has been on retail properties. Also on the sh

Arnim Holzer, global macro strategist at Easterly EAB Risk Solutions, says that he is concerned that investors don't understand just how badly their portfolios will perform in 2022 when interest rates start to rise. The way tech stocks and high-momentum sectors of the market are already reacting, Holzer said, should make investors cautious and have them looking at financial stocks and insurance companies, plus utilities, going forward. Also on the show, Ted Rossman talks about the latest Bankrate.com survey covering the shopping issues that more than three-quarters of Americans were facing before the holiday season got into full swing, David Trainer of New Constructs put AMC Entertainment -- one of the original meme stocks -- back into the Danger Zone, questioning whether there is any real value to the company's stock at all, and Robin Wigglesworth, columnist for the Financial Times, discusses his new book on the creation and evolution of the index fund and how it went from being ridiculed and scorned to bein

Abhay Deshpande, founder and chief executive officer at Centerstone Investors, says that tech and growth-oriented investors could see some trouble ahead, as growth rates slow from Covid-era comparisons, leading to a potentially significant correction next spring. Value investors -- and Deshpande is one -- should see their methods continue to pay off because they don't rely on continuing multiple expansion to drive their profits. Also on the show, Gaal Surugeon, portfolio manager at Brookfield Asset Management's Public Securities Group, discusses real assets and their potential with the passage of the new infrastructure bill, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a brand-new ESG fund his ETF of the Week, and author Maura Thomas offers tips for improving the organization and eliminating the clutter of your email inbox.

Two portfolio managers provide a lot of reason for investor optimism in today's show, with Larry Cordisco of Osterweis Capital Management discussing 'pockets of opportunity' in the market, highlighted by quality names that have actually been lagging behind the market as it has returned to record-high levels. Cordisco sees opportunities in dividend-paying stocks, which is particularly important for investors looking for income. Meanwhile, Jack Janasiewicz of Natixis Investment Managers says that strong corporate earnings and consumer spending should be able to overcome inflation concerns to limit the market's potential for a downturn, turning any downturn into a buying opportunity for long-term investors. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research revisits Nvidia and Bath and Body Works to see if they can continue their fast-growth trajectory after positive third-quarter earnings reports, and Chuck answers an audience-member's question about U.S. Savings Bonds.

David Wright, lead portfolio manager at Sierra Investment Management, says that the market is currently so overvalued that it has a lot more downside room to run than upside. While Wright remains fully invested right now -- and isn't calling for a major reversal in the immediate future -- he cautioned that investors should be looking to protect gains from heightened market volatility ahead by using stop-loss orders on their biggest and most risky positions. Also on the show, Leo Leydon of Financial Focus Advisory Services says that he thinks the market is due for a technical pullback -- possibly before the holidays -- before it can go off on another run, while Greg McBridge of Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent survey showing that a majority of American workers feel like they are behind when it comes to retirement savings. In the Market Call, Mark Lehmann, chief executive officer at JMP Securities talks about fast-growth companies in the technology, health care, real estate and financial-services sector

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that the inflation spike created by the global supply crisis that has pushed inflation to the 6 percent level will last for another three to six months before fading, but he notes that there are structural elements that are also pushing inflation higher, and those conditions are not transitory. As a result, he expects inflation to retreat to the 2 to 3 percent range later in 2022 and to remain there for the next three to five years. Also on the show, Meredith Stoddard discusses Fidelity Investments' 2021 American Caregivers Study, author Jeffrey Hooke focuses on his latest book -- “The Myth of Private Equity: An Inside Look at Wall Street’s Transformative Investments” -- and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts Peloton stock back in the Danger Zone after the company's most recent earnings report.

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist for Ned Davis Research, says that the market has room to run into next year, but that 2022 is likely to see much more volatility and much slower growth, even if inflation concerns start to fade and interest rates don't move dramatically higher. Clissold expects an earnings environment that is less friendly, traditional mid-term election year doldrums and more to hold the market to an average year overall, but with more pullbacks and downturns en route to that profitable finish. By contrast, Jim Welsh, macro strategist at Smart Portfolios, says the technicals -- along with some market history, plus higher inflation for longer than he believes most are expecting -- suggest that trouble is coming next year; unlike most technicians who have appeared on the show, Welsh expects the market to take a step back before starting a Santa Claus rally to finish 2021. Also on the show, Stephen Hester, partner at Wide Moat Research and editor at the Intelligent REIT Options Advisor newslett

FeiFei Li, head of equities at Research Affiliates,  says that any negative shock to the market could cause a 'very big correction,' but even without that kind of surprise events, she says that 'the market is facing a risk of delivering negative returns in the second half of 2022.' Despite the changing environment, Li is bullish on value investing moving forward, saying it should come to the fore as the market struggles. In the Market Call, Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management, talks about global deep-value investing and the trouble some companies and industries must get into in order to be undervalued in today's market conditions; and with the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com explores a new, leveraged trend play in a narrow industry that's not for the faint of heart.