Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes the stock market could drop by as much as 25 percent this year before rebounding late, saying that stocks could end the year down 10 percent, although with positive surprises they could find a way to finish the year in the black, maybe even by double-digits. That surprise would depend on how quickly the market processes the turn in the economy, which he sees as transitioning toward better times with the worst of the high inflation/rate-hiking cycle now in the past. Cheryl Pate, senior portfolio manager for Angel Oak Capital, also talks about the economy, noting that it's late in the cycle for rate hikes, but still early in the cycle for profit expansion amongst banks and financial-services companies, which historically benefit from high-rate markets. Also on the show, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the ATAC Funds talks about how 2022 was an 'outlier' year statistically, and what that means for investors

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrte.com, says he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a full percentage point but to then hold the line for the rest of the year once that hike is in place. McBride was careful to note that he does not expect the Fed to backtrack and start cutting rates at all this year, even as it sees inflation start to ease. That environment -- higher rates but declining inflation -- will create opportunities for savers using high-yield banking instruments. Also on the show, legendary money manager Ralph wanger -- a small-cap ace who ran the Acorn Fund for more than 30 years -- notes that 'Bear markets exist to destroy the stupidities of the previous bull market' and talks about how the current market is in the process of unwinding those excesses. Plus, Tom Lydon of VettaFi goes international with a trending pick as his ETF of the Week, and portfolio manager Andrery Kutuzov of Seven Canyons Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he expects 2023 to be when inflation and interest rates start coming down, which will not be comfortable to digest but he says he expects the stock market to get through it and finish the year higher, overcoming a brief mid-year recession -- and possibly giving up some late 2022 gains as a volatile market bottoms out -- to register a 'better than sub-par year.' Also on the show, Joe Wiggins, author of  'The Intelligent Fund Investor: Practical Steps for Better Results in Active and Passive Funds' and, in the Market Call, Noland Langford of Left Brain Wealth Management talks about where he is finding growth and how corporate bonds have a chance to replace fast-growing companies as a safer, more reasonable way to navigate current market conditions, at least until the market can navigate the current rate and inflation environment.

Rob Arnott, chairman and chief executive officer at Research Affiliates, says that the Federal Reserve has made 'a series of mistakes' that he expects to continue with a pivot away from rate hikes that occurs too late to stop a recession. Still, Arnott believes that slowdown is already priced into the market, meaning that the worst of the bear market -- except for any last capitulation meltdown -- is behind us. Still, Arnott is not ready to invest much in domestic equities now, noting that he'd favor international and emerging markets stocks because they're better values and those markets seem to have already passed the 'peak fear' point that makes them more attractive than a U.S. market that's not quite there yet. Arnott also notes that value stocks are 'in their cheapest quintile in history,' making them a place for investors to turn once the market reaches the full-on buying stage again later this year. Also on the show, in the Market Call, Mark Travis, manager of the Intrepid Capital Funds, discusses the

Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments says that 2022 was harder than anyone anticipated for investors and markets, in large measure because the stock and bond markets came into the year 'ridiculously expensive.' The market's decline has brought valuations down, but Doll considers both stocks and bonds to be 'in no-man's land' now, better than they were a year ago but not yet attractive. Doll reviews his 10 forecasts made for 2022 and how the year turned out; he'll return to the show in early January with his predictions for the year ahead. Meanwhile, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors makes his forecasts for the closed-end fund business in 2023 today, and his top sector bets for the new year are some of 2022's weakest areas, most notably real estate investment trusts (REITs) and real assets. He also expects international bonds and more to be in the sweet spot, and suggested that investors tilt equity portfolios toward value, dividend and internat

John Bonnanzio, editor at Fidelity Monitor and Insight, says that the economy keeps chugging along, and that the data suggests that the economy can avoid recession and the Federal Reserve can deliver a soft landing. Speaking in the Market Call segment, Bonnanzio says he is making gradual shifts to portfolios, moving away gradually from large-cap stocks and technology companies and moving towards value stocks including the ones that are economically sensitive that he thinks could be poised to rebound if his recession/soft landing call comes to fruition. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi makes the iShares MSCI Turkey fund his pick for ETF of the week, noting that its the best-performing non-leveraged ETF out there for 2022, but that's no reason to think you want to jump in now, after the big gain and with so many other emerging markets and other parts of the world also presenting good values now. Plus, Chuck talks about some financial chores you can resolve, plan for or make your goals as you look ahead into

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer at The Leuthold Group foresees 'the best buying opportunity in the global stock market for at least a decade' to come into view after the market goes through a recession and some pain in the first half of 2023. He believes that valuations will reflect the economic ills first, saying investors should be prepared for 'significant further losses' of as much as 25 percent before the market reaches the purchasing point. Talking technical analysis, Chris Vermeulen, chief market strategist at The Technical Traders certainly agrees with the assessment that trouble is coming, but he believes the downturn will take root and that any recovery -- at least anything occurring in the new year -- is likely to be lackluster. Plus, Chuck interviews Rob Wells, author of 'The Insider: How the Kiplinger Newsletter Bridged Washington and Wall Street.'

Patrick O'Hare, chief market analyst at Briefing.com, dislikes the cliche of a 'stockpicker's market' but he says the proverbial shoe fits for the year ahead, because while the overall tenor of the market has been muted and the economy has been bordering on recession, there are industry-leading stocks with solid balance sheets and profits and nice dividends that investors can build a portfolio around. O'Hare says the first half of the year will be challenging until inflation is under better control, and that the entirety of 2023 could be a struggle if the Federal Reserve and the markets don't get on the same page fairly soon; as a result, investors will want to look at income-production and safe havens in stocks and bonds to ride it out to better times. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discusses the uncertainties, worries and concerns that a majority of consumers have entering the new year, noting that this may be the worst year he's ever seen in terms of how shaky consu

Rusty Vanneman, chief investment strategist at Orion Portfolio Solutions, says that persistent inflation -- for longer than most observers are expecting -- is going to keep the Federal Reserve hawkish for longer, which investors will have to adjust to by diversifying away from the mega-cap stocks that have been a particular drag on portfolios this year. He suggests that investors look to small-cap stocks, non-US issues plus real assets and value investments to smooth out the ride in the year ahead. In The NAVigator segment, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Alliance looks back at 2022 for the closed-end fund industry and reviews his forecasts, most notably how his basket of five funds for the year came out ahead of the market and poised to rebound in the new year. Plus, University of Toronto professor Opher Baron discusses how retailers are changing return policies in response to consumer habits and global supply-chain issues -- saying that consumers must pay more a

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management says that investors can expect a recession and market troubles during the first half of the New Year, but a recovery to start later on, noting that he expects the stock market to bottom out while the economy gets to where interest rates and inflation start becoming more reasonable.  Cronk says that investors looking to be back in the market next year should be dipping into sectors where demand is consistent regardless of the economy, meaning health care, life sciences, defense companies and energy stocks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi -- the founder of ETF Trends -- reverts to his roots and makes a trend-following fund his pick as the ETF of the Week and, in the Market Call, Scot Bennett of Invest With Rules talks about how the rules apply and how well they have been working in today's difficult market conditions.

Roger Aliaga-Diaz, Americas chief economist and head of global portfolio construction at The Vanguard Group, says that the Federal Reserve and other central banks will be reluctant to stop interest-rate hikes in 2023, and while they will get inflation under control it will be a slow process to get it down to the 2 percent level they are hoping for until at least 2024 and possibly 2025. As a result, any economic recovery is likely to be lackluster, featuring more choppiness and sideways movements than significant, fast rebounds. Alliaga-Diaz says the stock market looks better now than a year ago -- when it was trading at up to 40 percent over fair value -- but that it is positioned to deliver between 6 and 10 percent annualized over the next decade, which means returns going forward will struggle to reach historic norms. In the Market Call, Rob Spivey, director of research at Valens Securities, says he expects a 'supply chain super cycle' to help sustain or even spur economic growth as consumer spending slows

Dana Telsey, chief executive/chief research officer at Telsey Advisory Group -- a leading analyst of the retail industry -- says she is cautious about the status of consumers and how they will respond to continuing inflation, noting that spending has moderated a bit. Telsey thinks retailers will see less spending and success than the last two years, but she thinks that retailers who can get through these times without much leftover inventory will be healthy enough to weather the storm that's coming early in 2023; she expects that to spur a few last-minute deals that consumers can take advantage of this week. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on how to beat back sequence-of-return risk, Fidelity's Meredith Stoddard discusses the firm's 14th annual survey on financial New Year's resolutions, and Stephen Dodson, manager of The Bretton Fund, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist for Charles Schwab and Co. says that investors should be hoping that the medicine necessary to help a weaker economy reduce the inflationary fever would be best taken sooner than later, leading to 'a much more meaningful deterioration of the economy ... that sets up a Fed pause.' With that in mind, Sonders expects more short-term market pain, setting up a recovery and better opportunities beyond that. David Trainer of New Constructs puts Digital Realty Trust back into the Danger Zone this week, noting that while the stock is already down significantly, it could drop another 75 percent before he thinks the market price will reflect the company's true value. Plus, Vivian Tsai, chairman of the College Savings Foundation discusses programs for gifting future college tuition monies for the holidays, and Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, makes his debut in the Market Call talking investments in exchange-traded funds.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that with the market being driven by inflation, there is a very slim chance that the Federal Reserve 'sticks the landing, gets it just right and we're off to the races again,' but an equally small worry about the central bank taking rates too high and making a giant mistake that craters the market. He believes the Federal Reserve likely lands somewhere in the middle, triggering a small, shallow recession. Ritholtz says investors need to stay focused on their goals and not get too excited by market moves in 2023, noting 'You have to be short-term greedy, not long-term greedy.' Also on the show, Stacey Morris, head of energy research at  VettaFi, talks midstream energy infrastructure investing in The NAVigator segment and, in the Market Call, Eric Schoenstein, chief investment officer at Jensen Investment Management discusses focusing on quality amid volatile, choppy markets.

Mike Liss, portfolio manager for the American Century Value fund -- who uses a relative-value approach and is always trying to find the stocks that are "most undervalued" --  says that there has been a shift in what represents a great risk-reward since the beginning of 2022. While energy stocks remain a reasonable value, Liss says that health care, industrial and real estate investment trusts are areas that have become particularly attractive entering the new year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a small, young fund that focuses on offsetting carbon emissions as his ETF of the Week, Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses holiday financial stress and how inflation and rising interest rates are contributing to consumers' agitation this year, and Chuck talks about Wednesday's news that the Securities and Exchange Commission is advancing its first big changes to trading rules in nearly two decades.

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research says that investors in 2023 will find out "the difference between an all-weather radial tire and a 30-percent total return," with one being "a Goodyear and the other a great year." Dad jokes aside, his look ahead for the New Year includes the idea that 2023 will not be a repeat of 2022, and while there will still be significant volatility, he otherwise thinks that the market's leadership will turn over, with lagging sectors coming to the fore and the few hot places of the market receding. Moreover, he expects solid returns from the stock and bond market, though he thinks it may take until the second half of the year for those gains to materialize. Also on the show, Ed Carson of Investor's Business Daily discusses the rebound in investor optimism -- it was a big move, though the IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index remains in pessimistic territory -- and Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates talks growths tocks in the Market Call.

Harry Dent, the founder of Dent Research, says that the stock market's troubles in 2022 were just a precursor to real trouble, with the next wave in a downward cycle coming early next year, right after the market wakes up to the fact that there is neither a Santa Claus rally or a January effect to get the new year started on good footing. Dent has been calling for a market decline of 85 percent or more in stocks -- moving from their peak to their trough -- and sees the massive decline being the next step, but he notes that the one silver lining is that bond funds are set up to not only be a safe haven but for significant gains. Also, he notes that once the market completes the crash cycle, he expects the next long bull market to begin. Dent's opinions tend to be outliers, and that is proven on this show as D.R. Barton Jr., chief investment strategist at Finiac, says he actually expects a Santa Claus rally this year, and he believes that technical indicators are showing that a market bottom may already be in p

Brian Nick, chief investment strategist at Nuveen, says that a soft landing for the economy is achievable, so long as inflation comes down without dramatically increasing the unemployment rate. He says it's 'so far, so good,' in terms of current conditions, though he notes it is still early. Nick expects a mild recession in 2023, but says 'Investors can get some pretty good deals with some of the yields that are available across the spectrum in fixed income, and that includes the equity markets too,' noting that dividend payers and growers are well positioned for the New Year. Dave Breazzano of Polen Capital Credit talks about the state of the corporate credit and high-yield markets, noting that the market's expectation that high interest rates will create more bankruptcies has priced paper attractively for investors who don't expect a spike in defaults. Also on the show, investment analyst Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts Five9 in 'The Danger Zone' as the latest 'zombie stock' with a destiny of running out

Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles, says that while interest rates and inflation are rising, the rate of those increases is slowing, and that part of the classic cycle doesn't ever get resolved quickly. is part of the classic cycle that has historically taken time to work out. The 89-year-old bond investing legend says the Federal Reserve has a tough job on its hands and places the central bank's odds of being successful in executing a soft landing are about 10 percent, though he thinks there's a better chance that it can push through the cycle without a downturn turning into a crash. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on how many stocks, funds and ETFs is too many for one investor to won, and portfolio manager Steve O'Neill of RiverNorth discusses why 'Tis the season for investors to go bargain hunting and discount shopping for closed-end funds.

Jeff Rosenkranz, manager of the Shelton Tactical Credit Fund, says that the fixed-income market is waiting for proof that the Federal Reserve's moves are starting to beat back inflation, but that stability in interest rates -- likely to be in place until the Fed starts cutting rates late in 2023 or into 2024 -- will drive good performance in fixed income over the next six to 12 months. Rosenkranz says that will help investors who are about to live through a recession which he says will be 'harder rather than softer in nature.' On the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi discusses a China fund that is on the upswing but not quite yet trending, which he says investors may want to add to their watchlist entering the New Year. Also on the show, Anthony Sassine, senior investment strategist at KraneShares, gives his assessment of the electric vehicle sector -- going way beyond Tesla -- and Chuck answers a listener's question about ways to save a little more money in 2023.