Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Money Life is back for Day 2 from the Morningstar Investment Conference, and the action heats up with more interviews covering wider grounds. A day after T. Rowe Price star manager David Giroux said there's no reason for investors to invest internationally, Chautauqua Capital's David Lubchenco will come back with a counter-attack, talking about how and why foreign stocks are poised to outperform domestics in the next market cycle. Also on the show, Christine Benz of Morningstar on how current market conditions impact retirement planning; two interviews on dividend investing with Scott Davis of Columbia Threadneedle  covering domestic stocks and Sid Bhargava of Matthews Asia on overseas opportunities; Ed Rosenberg of American Century ETFs talks about exchange-traded funds and Jonathan Good of the Baird Funds dives into what's happening with small and mid-cap stocks.

Money Life travels to the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago, where David Giroux, portfolio manager for T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation, kicks things off by saying that most investors have no good reason to buy international stocks, noting that they can instead purchase U.S. multi-nationals, and pointing out that the recent market downturn has made many of those companies significantly more attractive now than they have been in years. The rest of today's lineup from the conference: Will Jacobsen of Toggle.ai -- a fintech investment platform company -- Tony Tursich of Calamos Investments discussing ESG investing, Pete Dietrich of Morningstar Indexes talks about the evolution toward personalized indexing, and Mary Ellen Stanek of the Baird Funds  talks about bond investing in a high-inflation, rising-rate market.

Paul Dlugosch, portfolio manager for the Buffalo High-Yield, says that the high-inflation and rising-rate environment has been mostly priced in to the high-yield bond market, which will make the quality and strength of corporate earnings the big determinant of whether the junk-bond market can recover or if it will face troubles that linger to 2023 and beyond. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs fills the Danger Zone with mutual funds that get good star ratings from research firm Morningstar, but which get dangerous ratings from his firm, author Tony Delauney talks about "The No-Regrets Retirement Roadmap," and Corie Colliton, senior industry analyst for Security.org discusses the site's recent survey showing how many people are now investing in cryptocurrency and which surprising demographic groups are joining the trend.

Veteran technical analyst Martin Pring of Pring Research says the market is showing signs that the current bear market could be part of a larger, secular bear market. If indeed those long-term trends are bad -- so that the current downturn is part of a larger downtrend rather than a blip in the long-running bull market -- Pring says the current downturn will stick around for 12 to 18 months. Pring also notes that he believes the Bitcoin bubble has popped, though he's not expecting any kind of rebound until more damage has been done to the price of cryptocurrency. Everett Millman of Gainesville Coins -- mostly talking about precious metals investing -- also weighs in on Bitcoin, as does Big Interview guest Jim Masturzo of  Research Affiliates, who discusses how investors can and should use alternatives to make progress amid the market troubles. The show also features Bill Kelly, president of the CAIA Association, discussing how many investors place too much importance on having daily liquidity in the funds, wi

Tom Lydon, chief executive at ETFTrends.com, says that with inflation entrenched in the economy right now and not looking like it will go away for several years, investors need to take steps to deal with the impact that global-supply chain issues and more are having on their investment holdings. To that end, he made the VanEck Inflation Allocation fund his "ETF of the Week," noting that the real-asset strategy will diversify a portfolio by going beyond just using gold as an inflation hedge, mixing in commodities and other real assets that won't be so in-synch with the market. Also talking about exchange-traded funds, Dodd Kittsley, national director for Davis Advisors, discusses the evolution of active ETFs and whether investors should expect active strategies to outperform the passive in today's hyper-sensitive market. Danetha Doe, economist for Clever Real Estate, talks about a survey of college students showing that they are wildly inaccurate in the earnings they project for themselves once they graduate a

Brian Levitt, global market strategist for Invesco says that there is some good news in the market -- with signs that the bond market is expecting inflation to slow and ease and other indicators showing promise -- but everyone should be watching the impact of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes to see how long the current doldrums drag on. Levitt noted that less than 25 percent of companies on the New York Stock Exchange are trading above their 200-day moving average, and that the market typically bottoms out when that number reaches 15 percent, but he noted that commodity prices, interest rates and inflation all must moderate before the market gets to a more solid footing. Also on the show, Professor Pelin Pekgun from the Darla Moore School of Business at the University of South Carolina discusses inflation and how supply chain issues typically get resolved so that an economy can break the cycle of rising prices and shortages to return to normal, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses the record levels of hou

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance;, says that the current economic situation is different from the Covid meltdown or other recent difficult times because "This time, the Fed doesn't have your back." As a result, investors should not expect a V-bottom to the downturn and a quick bounceback, and investors should be making marginal changes to their portfolios, playing defense and not relying on a rising tide to raise up indexes in the short- and intermediate term. In the Talking Technicals segment, Willie Delwiche, investment strategist at All Star Charts, says that the market needs to see capitulation before it can start to rebuild, and the recent heavy action has not yet represented that kind of market emotion. Also on the show, portfolio manager Lance Cannon of Hood River Capital Management talks small-cap stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck talks crypto and more in the Weird Financial News.

John Bonnanzio, editor at Fidelity Monitor & Insight, says investors need to be as cautious as possible right now, focusing in on their investment time horizon so that they can ride out the potential downturns on the table in the short- and intermediate-term as the market sorts out the high-inflationary environment. Bonnanzio notes that investors with long time frames may want to consider how some of Fidelity's biggest-name large-cap funds are already in bear market territory, which actually has them priced relatively cheap and poised for a profitable bounce-back once the market sorts current conditions out. Also ont he show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts two stocks in the same industry - Equinix and Digital Realty Trust -- into the Danger Zone, and Larry Swedroe of Buckingham Wealth Partners discusses his latest book, "Your Essential Guide to Sustainable Investing."  

Jim Welsh, macro strategist at Smart Portfolios and the author of MacroTides, says he still believes the market can rally during the last half of the year, but he says investors have to respect the current downtrend, which is likely to get worse before any bounceback. Welsh notes that consumer savings should help absorb inflation, business spending is up, demand is higher and he believes the economy has enough internal strength to avoid recession so long as the Federal Reserve doesn't have to raise rates above 2.5 percent. If rates rise higher, Welsh says it could lead to a recession in 2023. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors discusses how to find the right issues to deal with the rising-rate, high-inflation conditions, Chuck discusses some things that he has never head said by experts during the first 10 years of the show, and Janet Brown of FundX Investment Group discusses funds, ETFs and the "upgrading" investment style in the Market Call.

Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management says that "the path forward is different than the path we have been on," and that investors must now keep  inflation and interest rates "top of mind" as they rethink what is possible and reasonable for the market. He noted that Regions' forecast of returns of 1.5 to 2 percent annualized gains for bonds and roughly 6 percent average gains for stocks over the next decade, which along with heightened volatility will be hard for many investors to stomach. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes a long-running, big-name dividend-paying fund his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about investing in I-bonds, and advisor Oliver Pursche of Wealthspire talks about stocks and investing defensively in the Market Call.

Lawrence McMillan, president of McMillan Analysis, says that he is seeing signs of a bear market -- which he believes we are in -- in the form of heightened volatility where rallies are in full force one minute and wiped out the next. McMillan says that while the market is showing signs of being oversold, it's not time to act on that yet because only one of the eight primary indicators he tracks is bullish right now, "and it will take a while for them to come around." Also on the show, Bob Powell, the editor of Retirement Daily, talks about how poorly prepared many retirement savers are for dealing with long-term heightened inflation, noting that 'You won't be able to invest your way out of this,' Ted Rossman discusses a Bankrate.com survey on how people are altering summer travel plans based on the economy, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks about growth investing in the Market Call.

Charles Rotblut, editor of the AAII Journal -- Money Life's all-time leader in guest appearances, but also the person responsible for maintaining the American Association of Individual Investors' sentiment survey -- says that investor optimism over the last three weeks has reached some of the lowest levels seen since the group started its survey in 1987. Rotblut says that when optimism is unusually low, "you tend to see outperformance in the Standard & Poor's 500 over the following six months and 12 months. ... When people are too negative, it's usually a good time to get greedy." But in the Market Call, Stephen McKee of the No-Load Mutual Fund Selection & Timing newsletter says that he still sees too much bullish sentiment and that he doesn't think the market will turn around until investors get negative; until that happens -- and for many months now -- McKee and his newsletter have been bearish. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst for BankRate.com discusses the Federal Reserve's

On the 10th anniversary show for Money Life, legendary bond fund manager Dan Fuss, vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co., says that the Federal Reserve is "trapped," and will not be able to fully control inflation and that investors will be living with higher inflation and interest rates "for likely the next 10 years." Fuss compares today's bond market conditions to the Korean War era, and says investors need to adjust their expectations and get used to living with it. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs revisits some of the most successful Danger Zone selections that -- despite being hammered since they were labeled as dangerous -- remain poised for more damage, and money manager Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman & Flynn, who appeared in the first-ever Money Life Market Call -- is back talking stocks in that segment again today. 

Craig Johnson, senior research analyst at Piper Sandler, says that the market's current washout is setting up "a very healthy rally into year-end" that could see the Standard & Poor's 500 finish the year above 4,700, a particularly healthy move because the current pain and decline has longer to go before the turnaround begins. Johnson is currently overweight in energy, basic materials and large-cap technology stocks, and underweight in health care, communications/media stocks and consumer cyclicals. That interview contrasts with Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, who suggested that investors hold tight to fundamentals and the teachings of Warren Buffett, understanding that while there may be a rally in the market, there is a recession on the horizon, likely arriving after the next year. Also on the show, Nathan Shetty, head of multi-asset for Nuveen, discusses diversifying to generate consistent gains and safety in a low-return environment, and author Scott Nations discusses his new b

Frank Holmes, chief executive/chief investment officer for U.S. Global Investors, says current economic and socio-political conditions have the market in the middle of a downturn that could grow into a full-blown recession accompanied by a bear market, but he expects central bankers and politicians to print as much money as is necessary to keep economic engines running and to minimize the setbacks. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com makes the Invesco Water Resources fund -- a long-running fund that is a different kind of play on the natural resources space -- his ETF of the Week and Craig Hodges, chief investment officer for the Hodges Funds, talks bottoms-up investing in stocks in the Market Call.

Thomas Winmill, manager of the Midas Fund, says that while gold has not done well in its traditional role as an inflation hedge over the last year as higher prices have gripped the country, it would be too early to give up on precious metals filling that role, especially as inflation stays in place for longer than was initially expected. Winmill also notes that if the economy heads into a recession, the permanence of gold will elevate it over cryptocurrencies and other hot assets that have been proposed as alternatives to precious metals in troubled times. Also on the show, Rob Williams of the Schwab Center for Financial Research, discusses a recent survey showing how younger generations are re-imagining retirement, resulting in better preparedness for their golden years, even as those times will look different than the standard retirements of the past. In the Market Call, Brent Wilsey of Wilsey Asset Management talks about crunching the numbers on stocks, especially during volatile times like what investors

Sameer Samana, senior global market strategist at the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says that the stock market has been seeing its various drivers falter since last year, starting with uptrends turning to downtrends in developed markets like Europe, then in emerging markets, then small- and mid-cap stocks, and now domestic large-cap stocks. With less than half of the market sectors showing positive trends now, Samana says "This is not a time to be playing offense, this is a much better time to be playing defense." In The Big Interview, Dhaval Joshi, chief strategist at BCA Research, talks about inflation and how he believes the drivers for it have peaked, which should mean it begins easing significantly, even if that doesn't show up in the measures for a while. And in the Market Call, George Young of the Villere Funds talks about long-term investment strategies with small-company stocks.

Economists -- as judged by the latest Business Conditions Survey released today by the National Association for Business Economics -- do not see inflationary pressures subsiding immediately but they believe the damaging impact to the market of high inflation, rising interest rates and global supply-chain issues will stop short of creating a recession in the United States. Economist Lester Jones discusses the survey results, and the prospects for the domestic economy while inflation and war persist. Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at Rayliant Global Advisors, says that the China market is tenuous right now -- with the country dealing with a continuing Covid crisis and also trying to be neutral in the Ukraine War -- but also poised to be a good opportunity for active investors now. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs gives us new reasons to dislike Gamestop and Carvana, as he puts them back into the Danger Zone, and Chuck Carlson of Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsl

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager for Stack Financial Management, says that inflationary pressures that haven't been seen in over 40 years and the tightest labor market in history mean that what has worked in recent years will not be panning out so well going forward. That means "This is not your father's market," Jonson says, and investors need to go old school and get more defensive, expecting to see some pain before they the market gets positioned for a long-term recovery. Jonson also notes that the average constituent of the NASDAQ Composite Index is down 42 percent from 52-week highs, so while index returns have yet to show substantial drawdowns, a lot of investors have already suffered serious pain, which is likely to get worse from here unless they make defensive moves. Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence and the Active Investment Company Alliance, talks about how closed-end funds fared during the rugged first quarter of the year,  Derek Izuel of Shelton Capital  Management

Before even getting to today's interviews, Chuck discusses the fallout from Netflix losing one-third of its value on Wednesday, and how a big popular security being challenged this way becomes the perfect opportunity for individuals to see if their portfolio has passed a key stress test. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks a new fund highlighting the consumer market in India as his ETF of the Week, David Rainey of the Hennessy Focus Fund discusses the market and the challenges of concentrating a portfolio during times with high inflation and rising interest rates, and Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners, talks stocks in the Market Call.