Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Kathy Bostjancic, chief US financial economist, says the current recovery 'is what we've been waiting for' and is a story of spending and pent-up demand tempered by a global supply shortage that is generating inflation and symbolizes the bumps in the road that should temper  consumers' enthusiasm. Bostjancic notes that getting supply and demand rebalanced could take a year or more, with the meantime being when inflation and interest rates could grow into a significant problem. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left Brain Investment Research talks reopening plays, noting that 'The truth-teller will be the earnings and what the revenues have done a quarter or two past this,' portfolio manager Nate Velarde of  Chautauqua Capital Management discusses the areas where he thinks investors can develop long-term investment convictions now, and Aliza Vigderman of Security.org covers a new survey showing that more than 20 percent of Americans experience identity theft in the aftermath of a relationship breaking up.

Lawrence Kotlikoff, an economist and the founder of Maxifi.com, says that the current increase in inflation is nothing compared to what he fears is coming, which he said could be several years of the high single digits all the way up to hyperinflation levels. Kotlikoff says that investors need to factor what inflation will do to the ability of their financial nest egg to maintain purchasing power and fund a lengthy retirement. Also on the show, Leo Leydon of Financial Focus Advisory Services discusses technical analysis, noting that the market is looking like it is in a sideways pattern that could last for the summer, and David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com talks mutual funds and notes that one hot, popular fund company looks to him like a train wreck that's on the track with unavoidable damage dead ahead.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist at S and P Global Ratings says that the economy is being turned back on in the middle to late stages of the economic cycle, which is different from the standard exit from a downturn, raising questions about the impact and effectiveness of policy decisions going forward. Still, he remains constructive about the market, noting that the U.S. economy could come out of the pandemic without too much scarring, with reasonable growth rates -- much lower than current levels --with markets remaining reasonably calm as the economy gets sorted out. Also on the show, Minouche Shafik, director of London School of Economics and Political Science, discusses her new book, 'What We Owe Each Other: A New Social Contract for a Better Society,' and Christopher Zook, president of CAZ Investments, talks long-term thematic investing in the Market Call. 

Bob DiMella, co-head of municipal managers at MacKay Shields, discusses the surprise that muni bonds have been since the start of the pandemic, coming through what were expected to be tough times with superior performance among fixed-income investments and positioned to be a leader in the bond space amid rising interest rates and inflation in the future. Also on the show, Randy Anderson of the Griffin Capital Institutional Access Real Estate fund discusses the changing opportunities in real estate investing now, Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF talks technical analysis and why he dislikes financials and energy stocks right now, and Barry James of the James Advantage Funds talks about stocks -- and why he actually favors financial companies -- in the Market Call.

Barry Ritholtz, chairman of Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that the coronavirus pandemic and the current re-opening have economic parallels to what the United States experienced after World War II, noting that key industries and economic conditions will be changed forever. He believes that current concerns about inflation are overblown when viewed through a long-term lens, and expects economic stimulus -- funded at historically low rates for Treasury yields -- to continue to stoke expansion and recovery. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends looks at a new, actively managed fund for his ETF of the Week and Chuck Self, chief investment officer at iSectors, talks commodities ETFs and more in the Market Call.

Mark Travis, president of Intrepid Capital Management, says in the Market Call that there will be a battle going forward between the Federal Reserve and the marketplace and Treasury yields -- where various economic pressures will meet -- but that the brewing fight over rates and inflation have yet to negatively impact the stock market. It does have him looking at some securities and favoring their bonds over the stocks as he looks for 'compounders' that can grow in this environment. Also on the show, Jan Eeckhout, author of 'The Profit Paradox: How Thriving Firms Threaten the Future of Work,' Ken Tumin of  DeositAccounts.com on a survey of how people are putting record amounts into bank accounts despite payouts that amount to nothing, and Chuck takes an audience member's question on what to do with checks that she neglected to deposit in a timely fashion.

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Management, says that while inflation is rising, he doesn't expect it to reach the kinds of dangerous levels that could crash the stock market.  He notes that, historically, markets do well when inflation is under 4 percent, provided that spikes are avoided, which he believes the central banks globally will control. Still, he has tempered expectations for the future, noting that he expects stocks to return 5 to 7 percent in 2022. Also on the show, Washington Post columnist Michelle Singletary discusses her new book, 'What to Do With Your Money When Crisis Hits,,' and Peter Donisanu, president/chief financial strategist for Franklin Madison Advisors talks exchange-traded funds in the Market Call.

Jason Thomas, chief economist at AssetMark, says that individual investors are focusing too much on near-term risk management at the expense of their long-term goals, noting that anyone with time frames of five years or more can be confident that current concerns about inflation, rising interest rates and more will not cause long-run economic scarring. He believes that domestic markets will remain stronger than international markets, he suggests that governments and central banks are prepared to prop up economies against deep recessions and notes that America is well positioned for the future due to technology being such a key cornerstone to future growth. Also on the show, Kimberly Flynn of XA Investments discusses how financial firms should be developing new products overseas that will ultimately find an audience in the US, Vivian Tsai of the College Savings Foundation discusses research on how the pandemic has changed attitudes and savings/spending plans for future college students, and Scott Klimo of Satu

Terri Spath, founder and chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says the market seems to be in the middle of a correction now, with a choppy trend that is challenging investors' patience and judgment. She says investors are having a tough time determining if inflationary pressures are transient and temporary or if they represent real trouble, and she says that story will play out in the currency and cryptocurrency markets as well as in the bond market later this year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com picks a core fund that takes a leveraged approach as his ETF of the Week, and Garvin Jabusch, chief investment officer for Green Alpha Advisors, talks about 'Next Economy Investing' in the Market Call.

Sam Stovall, chief investment strategist at CFRA Research says that there are plenty of reasons for investors to be concerned about the stock market now, though he notes that since World War II the market has mostly avoided significant downturns in the month of June. He is not opposed to turning defensive and rotating into health care and consumer staples -- rather than retreating from potential troubles -- but he relies on stock market history as 'virtual valium,' a calming agent that reminds him that investors who get out of the market historically tend to do worse than investors who ride out the troubles. 'It is typically better to buy than bail,' he says, and he suggests that investors should be looking for things to be buying next, as the market gets volatile as the economy adjusts to reopening from the pandemic. Also on the show, Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research talks about how the changing market has the firm looking for more growth-at-a-reasonable-price picks,and that Salesforce.com looks

Axel Merk of Merk Investments says that the stock market is due for a correction, but not necessarily a bear market, noting that the economic recovery has gone far and that the reopening will fight some of the downward pressures. Merk says that while the market is seen as being 'different' right now, the traditional 'sell in May and go away' thinking might be in place, at least through Labor Day; he's been protecting profits and taking chips off the table but noted that he would not be going short the market now. Also on the show, Simon Zhen of MyBankTracker.com talks about just how much change Americans will stop to pick up, Chuck takes a question about travel insurance now, and David Barse of XOut Capital talks about stocks and enhancing indexes in the Market Call.

Market forecaster Harry S. Dent Jr. says the next stock market crash -- which he thinks could hit as early as the next six weeks -- will be a 50 percent decline in two to three months, but he says that the decline is a re-set needed to pass a bubble and that the carnage will be over by late in 2022 or 2023. 'The upside is limited, the downside is somewhere between 65 and 80 percent on stocks,' he says in an extended Big Interview. Dent says that Bitcoin has been 'the best leading indicator of the market,' and he notes that if Bitcoin's mid-April peak holds up -- and the crypto is down about 50 percent since then -- then the market would be due to start its significant fall by the end of June. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs discusses a new and different way that some companies are hiding some troubling numbers from investors, and Chuck talks about the various forms of risk and how investors -- even nervous ones -- want exposure to all of them.

Economist Lacy Hunt of Hoisington Investment Management says that the economic rebound and recovery is peaking now, in terms of growth rates, and he believes that later in the year economic growth will be well below the pre-pandemic levels of 2019. He believes that the stimulus efforts will prove to be temporary help, but will leave behind debt that will lead the economy to 'death by slow strangulation.' Also on the show, Mark Asaro of Noble Wealth Management talks about how closed-end funds can be used to build a paycheck-replacement system for investors, and Eric Boughton of Matisse Capital Management discusses closed-end funds, master-limited partnerships and more in the Market Call.

Meir Statman, professor at Santa Clara University and one of the world's leading experts on behavioral finance, talks about the approach he took when looking into making a major donation of his own money, and the decision-making that prompted him to give generously 'with a warm hand,' rather than waiting until his death. He also discusses why he doesn't rebalance his portfolio, or stick to a common asset allocation for a man his age, how he has given up on using money-market funds and replaced them with short-term bond funds -- despite the cost of occasional fluctuations -- and more. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com puts a new fund based on an index that is built to achieve consistent performance into the ETF of the Week spotlight, and Craig Copeland of the Employee Benefits Research Institute covers the group's most recent retirement-confidence survey.

Jason Hsu of Rayliant Global Advisors says that China -- which was first into and first out of the pandemic -- is a good economic precursor for the rest of the world to watch now, as its stock market euphoria from 2020 has backed off with more mundane returns this year. Hsu notes that China's path through the pandemic was different than for much of the world, highlighting that there has been some de-coupling between global markets, less correlation where one nation's issues lead to problems elsewhere; that, he notes, is good for diversification and a reason to give international investments a bigger role in portfolios. Also on the show, Noland Langford of Left brain Investment Research discusses how the stock market's recent rotation has him looking for growth in some non-traditional places, Chuck talks about the latest research around the '4 percent rule' for retirees, and David Brady of Brady Investment Counsel talks growth stocks in the Market Call.

Willie Delwiche, investment analyst for AllStarCharts.com, says that the market is on solid ground now, even as it enters the second year of a cyclical rally. He suggests looking for clues on where to invest from the current 'digestive phase,' which saw the market take a turn for the worse; despite that downturn, Delwiche notes that financials and materials stocks reached new highs, showing their strength -- which he expects to continue -- in this market. Also on the show, Doug Loeffler of Sierra Investment Management talks about the market and investors' changing risk profiles, Chuck answers a question from a novice who is considering cryptocurrency investments, and Brian Smoluch of the Hood River Small-Cap Growth Fund returns to the Market Call for the first time in roughly five years.

Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn -- who has been on the Market Call more than any other guest -- returns to the show and says that for the first time since the Reagan Administration, he is genuinely concerned about the prospect of rising inflation. He sees oil rising to 100 dollars a barrel and says commodity prices are showing upward pricing pressure every day. Also on the show, David Trainer of NewConstructs.com puts the SquareSpace IPO -- due to launch on Wednesday -- into the Danger Zone before it even hits the market, Morgan Henderson of Choice Mutual talks about the poor end-of-life financial planning decisions that many Americans are making, and William Burckhart talks about changing the face of investing, as described in his new book, '21st Century Investing.'

David Ellison, manager of two Hennessy Funds focused on financial-services stocks, says that the market has technology companies trading at 15 times revenues while banks are trading at 10 times their profits, creating a valuation edge that 'makes it hard to see how [financials] will not do well over the next couple of years,' and that's before factoring in rising interest rates and other factors that could change and help the financial landscape going forward. Also on the show, Mike Taggart of Taggart Fund Intelligence discusses how investors need to look past discounts when analyzing closed-end funds, technical analyst D.R. Barton Jr. discusses how current market volatility looks mostly like a buying opportunity, and Jamie Cuellar, manager of the Buffalo Small Cap Fund, says in the Market Call that investors need to be picky with small stocks as market volatility grows over the remainder of the year.

Bill Stone, chief investment officer for Glenview Trust, says that current inflation may be on the rise, but the increase may be caused in part by bottlenecks in certain commodities that have caused prices to increase, and that pressure should ease over time. He expects value stocks to continue their recent outperformance over growth during the rest of the year, with a strong economic recovery and the slight inflation blip pushing that action along. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com discusses a cash-cow investment strategy with his pick for the ETF of the Week, Jerome Clark discusses how the pandemic played out in family money talks, as measured by the T. Rowe Price 2021 Parents, Kids & Money Survey, and Roger Conrad, editor of Conrad's Utility Investor, covers a wide range of utility stocks in the Market Call.

Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, says that the light at the end of the pandemic's tunnel is getting brighter and that as conditions improve the astronomically high expectations for economic growth keep moving higher, as do the already heightened expectations for Standard and Poor's 500 earnings. 'The overriding theme,' Gayle says, 'is that the fundamentals continue to improve,' creating the proverbial rising tide that is lifting all boats. Also on the show,  Brian Dress of Left Brain Investment Research discusses what growth investors should be thinking now that volatility has made the ride much bumpier, and Ted Rossman of CredtCards.com covers a new survey showing that many parents helped their children get through the pandemic financially, but to the detriment of their own finances. In the Market Call, Andre Weisbrod of Quantum Financial Advisors makes his debut on the show discussing stocks and ETFs.