Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

For years, Chuck has offered the kids in his neighborhood a chance to pick cash or candy, to decide between a trade or a treat. Every Halloween, however, Chuck tweaks the game, making a few subtle changes to keep things interesting for him and the kids. This year, he is changing something he never expected to change, ever, and he talks about how Halloween will work at his house -- and maybe yours if you follow suit -- come Oct. 31. Plus, Andrew Krei, co-chief investment officer at Crescent Grove Advisors, talks about how the higher-for-longer rate environment -- coupled with the narrow stock market -- has given investors an opportunity to reposition and rebalance portfolios to play defense while being compensated with better yields, but he does warn that there may be more maneuvering to do once rates start to fall again. Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree discusses record credit-card rates and the alarming number of lenders now issuing cards with a 29.99 percent rate or higher. In the Market Ca

John Kosar, chief market strategist at Asbury Research, says the stock market hit a key support level at the beginning of October, which typically has been triggering market rebounds. As a result, he sees current conditions as a "low-risk, high opportunity" place to put money to work in the market now. Mary Ryan, senior wealth advisor at The Vanguard Group, discusses the firm's research showing that investors who have the option of contributing to a health-savings account can goose their long-term investment returns by prioritizing the HSA, rather than thinking of it solely as a savings account to pay for medical costs. She suggests that savers turn to HSAs higher in their priority list for savings, just behind getting the free money of an employer's matching monies, but ahead of additional retirement-plan contributions and Roth IRAs. Plus, Allison Hadley covers a survey by AllStarHome.com on the financial impacts of living at home or in their hometown, and Gerry Frigon of Taylor Frigon Capital Management ta

Craig Callahan, founder and chief executive officer at ICON Advisers and the ICON Funds, says that he's not seeing the overpricing you'd expect at a market peak or the bargains visible in typical market bottoms, so he expects the market to "drift higher" over the next six to nine months. But those gains will be led by different stocks and sectors than what drove the market to gains earlier this year. Callahan says the market has turned since May 31, with energy leading, and economically sensitive areas like financials have been strong too; "that really narrow market that we didn't think made sense, it ended May 31st" he said. "We're in a new market now." Also on the show, Kyle Guske, investment analyst at New Constructs revisits a stock that has been in the Danger Zone for years, but that has rebounded well this year to set up the next round of troubles, John Cabble of J.D. Power discusses the firm's latest look into payment patterns and looks at the deteriorating credit situation for most Americans, and Bob

Brian Andrew, chief investment officer at Johnson Financial Group, sees more potential negative economic outcomes than positive ones, ranging from a likely recession to possible stagflation, which should keep investors cautious but looking for opportunities in the year ahead. While he worries about the troubles ahead -- particularly with two wars in the world right now -- Andrew says he does not expect a deep global recession, but something more isolated and affecting some pockets of the market -- like interest-rate sensitive businesses -- harder than the rest. Also on the showm,  harder than others. Roxanna Islam of VettaFi discusses how ETFs that buy closed-end funds have held up in a year when closed-end funds have delivered high yields but low total returns and seen widening discounts. Dan Passarelli, founder/chief executive, Market Taker Mentoring says the market is currently stuck between its 50 and 200 day moving averages, which makes movement hard to determine but which is creating short-term volatili

Nate Thooft, chief investment officer at Manulife Investment Management, says that the strength of domestic stocks has been such that they are overpriced relative to international issues, which is why he has been light on U.S. equities of late. Thooft expects equity conditions to change at some point in the next year as a recession sets in, bringing with it "value destruction" that . Once that happens and there's been some "value destruction," it will be time to be more excited about stocks, but particularly the domestic issues. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes an active-income strategy his ETF of the Week, Matt Brannon discusses research from Clever Real Estate showing that one in four Americans is falling deeper into credit-card debt each month, and Clark Kendall, president of Kendall Capital Management, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that stock valuations are running high right now, making it that "the compensation for equity isn't nearly as good as it has been for the better part of a decade," which has made fixed-income investments look like a better bargain. Moreover, while Sanchez is calling for a soft landing economically and believes that the Federal Reserve is done raising interest rates, it is creating opportunities for bond investors now. Jeff Muhlenkamp, portfolio manager at the Muhlenkamp Fund does the Market Call, noting that the fund has put some money to work in the six months since he was last on the show, but explaining why he's not fully invested now and doesn't expect to be for a while, and noting that individual investors might follow his lead. Plus, Russel Kinnel, director of manager research at Morningstar, discusses research showing how money flows into or out of funds after changes are made to the firm's medalist and star ratings,

Patrick Luce, economist at ITR Economics, says that current economic trends are building a storm that will result in a depression in the 2030s, and a small recession next year, but he notes that investors should treat the 2024 decline as a buying opportunity, positioning themselves for the market to pick up before the big trouble comes in the next decade. And while Luce sees that big event damaging portfolios, he notes that prepared investors will build portfolios leading up to it, and be positioned to profit as the market rebounds out of it long-term. Will Rhind, chief executive officer at GraniteShares, returns to the show to discuss single-stock ETFs and the various flavors of them -- long, short and leveraged -- that his firm has unleashed and how investors should approach them. Also, Steven Benna of travel-insurance company Squaremouth discusses how travelers are expecting trip costs to be higher next year, and why those higher prices are not just about global inflation, and forensic accountant Tracy Co

Alan Gayle, president of Via Nova Investment Management, says that the current negativity around the bond market has hidden "the opportunity [longer-term investors] have been waiting for," noting that government and investment-grade corporate bonds are now delivering the kind of yield that -- after years of bonds paying nothing -- can help achieve long-term income goals. Gayle does not believe a recession is happening soon, but as consumers lose strength -- and they have since the start of the year -- and the impact of rising rates eventually hurt economic growth rates, the likelihood of trouble late next year or beyond increases. Also on the show, economist Jack Kleinhenz discusses the latest Outlook Survey from the National Association for Business Economics -- released today -- showing that less than half of the surveyed economists expect a recession now. Plus David Trainer of New Constructs puts a stock in the Danger Zone that he thinks is due for a big miss during the upcoming earnings season, and Janet

Matt Gertken, chief strategist, global and U.S. political strategy at BCA Research, says that higher levels of leadership uncertainty lead to lower stock prices, and that the peak polarization in U.S. politics has taken the government's eyes off the ball when it comes to the actions of Russia and China, which could lead to policy mistakes and real costs on Americans in the global marketplace. Gertkin explains that the political gridlock is not all bad news for investors, noting that it restricts how far either side can go in blowing out the budget, but says that a recession is likely to lead to one party being swept into control. Jerremy Newsome of Real-Life Trading says the market's recent pullback "is a healthy rotation on the general broader uptrend of the markets," meaning that declines are buying opportunities because the market has room to run higher and is showing signs that it will, although much of that continuing rally may still be in mega-cap names. In The NAVigator segment, Robert Bush, director o

Steve Rick, chief economist at TruStage, expects the economy to slow in 2024 -- resulting in "a growth recession" rather than a traditional full-blown economic meltdown -- likely staving off a major stock market decline. Rick says he has heard from more nervous bank and credit union top dogs who are scared about economic conditions than at any time in his 30 plus year career and he worries that a slowdown in lending could be a trigger for something bigger and worse than he currently expects. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman, VettaFi make a managed-futures fund his pick for ETF of the Week, Chuck talks the $1.2 billion Powerball jackpot from Wednesday night and why the lump-sum payment was one of the lowest any big-prize distributions in years, plus Brian Drubetsky -- manager of the Cullen Small Cap Value Strategy fund -- talks small- and mid-sized stocks in the Market Call.

Bill Stone, chief investment officer at Glenview Trust, says that third-quarter earnings season is likely to be where the market turns the corner to get positive year-o-ver-year comparisons, which may help the market get past the hurdle of higher interest rates and higher yields which has been a big reason why the market has struggled to have a broad-based rally this year. Stone says recession has been delayed, not canceled, though it could be well into next year before that happens. Also on the show, Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, discusses the firm's new funds based on ether futures; ether is the world's second-largest cryptocurrency behind bitcoin, and was the subject of new funds released by three different fund companies this week. In the Market Call, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses exchange-traded funds.

Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says in the Talking Technicals segment that he expects "strength coming into the end of the year," with the stock market re-touching and potentially breaking all-time highs, but "from that point, I will get pretty defensive" because of the "very significant selloff" he expects in stocks. Grimes notes that he expects a protracted bear market for stocks, which doesn't change his long-term positive outlook for equities but which he says will hurt investors who haven't seen that kind of downturn in about 15 years. Nobel Prize winner Sir Angus Deaton returns to the show to discuss his new book, "Economics in America: An Immigrant Economist Explores the Land of Inequality," which is out today and which discusses how societal problems were exacerbated by economic platitudes and not enough attention paid to workers and the poor living through trouble. Plus, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen returns with the latest "Find Me The Money" segment, talking about the right way to hir

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, says that Affirm Holding's gains this year  -- the stock has more than doubled year-to-date -- have fooled investors into thinking there might be value in the purveyor of buy now, pay later programs, so he put the company back in "The Danger Zone" for the third time in three years. Trainer noted that the stock -- despite this year's gains -- is down more than 80 percent from when he first said it was headed for trouble in 2021, and he says the firm remains a "zombie stock," likely to run out of money within two years. Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst/Washington bureau chief at BankRate.com discusses the agreement in Congress that allowed Congress to avoid a government shutdown this weekend, but what lies ahead for lawmakers and the economy, financial adviser Eric Beiley of the Beiley Group worries about the economic troubles ahead and suggests bak CDs as a possible alternative for investors who want to be on the sidelines now, wait

Craig Johnson, chief market technician at Piper Sandler, says "the trend between here and year-end is up, and 4,825 [on the Standard and Poor's 500] is my objective, and he expects the rally to broaden -- moving beyond the Magnificent Seven that have led to this point in the year -- and spreading into small- and mid-cap stocks. Chris Huemmer, senior client portfolio manager, at Flexshares, talks about why he believes real assets and natural resources play are important to help balance out a portfolio in the conditions that lie ahead; he also likes parts of the bond market -- notably junk bonds -- disdained by most of the show's recent guests. Duncan Farley, manager of the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund -- which Morningstar places at the very top of its peer group over its five-year existence -- talks about how special situations are plentiful in the current marketplace, but the risks associated with those better yields are not so high as to turn off investors who can get 5 percent yield

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says it typically  takes about a year from the start of a rate-hike cycle to impact the revenues of companies and then another nine months before layoffs and other fallout hits home. She says soft landings require increases in government spending, banks to ease lending requirements and labor costs coming down, and those factors aren't in the cards. Coupled with higher energy costs, the continuing strain on consumers and more, Fernandez says the economy and market is likely to take a hit early next year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi hums the tune of a new specialty fund for his ETF of the Week, Catherine Collinson of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses their new research -- out today -- showing how the expectations of pre-retirees differ from the realities experienced by actual retirees, and Adam Peck of Riverwater Partners talks social investing in the Market Call.

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at John Hancock Investment Management, says that there is a lot of value opening up in fixed income, allowing bonds to do "more heavy lifting" in a portfolio than in recent years. She notes that bonds will ride out the choppy market until a recession sets in and yields fall precipitously, at which point bond prices will rise, goosing returns amid an economic contraction. Roland made it clear she does not believe in a no-landing" outcome, but she says "the time to prepare a roof is when the sun is shining," and investors should be working on their portfolios now. Also on the show, financial advisor Chris Collins discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2023 Planning and Progress Study, which showed that even millionaires -- and a surprising number of them -- worry that they will outlive their money, Chuck discusses how podcast host "Dr. Matt, the Cash-Flow King" wound up being charged this week with running a Ponzi scheme, and Will Rhind of GraniteSh

Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says that while he expects the stock market to challenge its support levels and take a small step back soon, he expects "a buying opportunity between now and year-end" because the market cycle has plenty of strength -- particularly in industrial and energy stocks -- to keep the bullish phase running. Still, he expects a recession early in 2024, but says the market is prepared for a downturn that he expects to be short and shallow. In the Book Interview, Princeton University history professor Michael Blaakman discusses America's first market mania, the land rush of Revolutionary times and how it dictated much of what the country has seen and done since. Forensic accountant Tracy Coenen returns for another episode of "Find Me The Money," talking about protecting your finances post-divorce, making a clean break on joint accounts, updating beneficiaries to retirement accounts and insurance policies and stopping an ex from accessing new credit in your na

David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs, puts an initial public offering into the Danger Zone for the third straight week, always jumping on deals he considers overpriced before they are even out of the box. Trainer says that this week's pick, Birkenstock, is another company that can show profits, but where the private-equity backers are pushing to get way more for those profits than the market is paying for the competition. Trainer's last two picks -- ARM Holdings and Maplebear (Instacart) -- have dropped below their IPO pop prices almost immediately after coming out. In The Big Interview, Stash Graham of Graham Capital Wealth Management, says that"there is pain ahead" for the economy; he says the business cycle starting to shift in ways where the higher cost of capital caused by increased interest rates and the struggles consumers and businesses are seeing due to lingering inflation are going to hit home and create serious market problems. Plus, Ted Rossman discusses Bankrate.com's latest stu

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell's message this week was largely positive -- suggesting we're "in a mode to get a soft landing" -- but the market seized on confusing parts where he suggested that the central bank is not afraid of going through some pain. Garretty notes that there are already plenty of "pain points" already visible in the economy, but that it hasn't created real trouble yet. The question, she noted, is whether that pain will be felt down the line. Also on the show, John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors talks about how muni-bond closed-end funds have seen discounts widening well past historic norms -- but notes that investors may want to be cautious before diving in -- Chuck answers a listener's question on unit investment trusts, and Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that technical indicators suggest the market will challenge support levels -- taking a small setback -- before t

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research, says the Federal Reserve is putting "arrows in the quiver" to deal with a recession if it happens, but that the central bankers have signaled that "if there's a rough landing ... they won't be so quick to react to it." Roberts says the economy remains strong -- and that the U.S. is still the best market in the world -- despite the market acting like it's in a correction. He sees the narrow, large-cap rally continuing for the foreseeable future. Plus, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, picks up on the quality theme he discussed a week ago, but turns in the small-cap direction with his "ETF of the Week," Chuck goes off the news with a consumer story that impacts every adult in the country -- and which serves as a reminder to take care of your financial chores -- and Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet, returns to the Market Call to discuss exchange-traded funds.