Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

It's Day Two of Money Life at Morningstar, featuring interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago. One of the themes of this year’s event has been the rise and fall and rebirth of 60-40 portfolios and Catherine LeGraw, partner at GMO, takes the side that the default allocation is too blunt to work for everyone, leaving them with too much risk which ultimately short-circuits their ability to reach their goals. Also on this show, Steve Romick of the FPA Crescent fund, Morningstar’s John Rekenthaler, John Hoffman of Invesco, Hunter Hayes of Intrepid Capital Management, Brian Portnoy of Shaping Wealth and Shana Sissel of Banrion Capital. Plus Tom Lydon of VettaFi with the ETF of the Week!

It's Money Life at Morningstar, the first of three days of interviews from the Morningstar Investment Conference in Chicago. Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab and Co., says that the market appears to be banking on a near-term recession, in which it takes the pain and the ill-tasting medicine, thereby allowing the Federal Reserve to take its foot off the economic brake. As a result, a recession sooner rather than later would be helpful for the economy. She kicks off seven interviews, including "Super Mario" -- legendary fund manager Mario Gabelli of the Gabelli Funds -- bond fund manager Warren Pierson of the Baird Funds, asset-allocation strategist Som Priestley of T. Rowe Price, Dan Lefkovitz of Morningstar Indexes, Nate Velarde of Chautauqua Capital talking international investing, and Alison Susko of Asset Map, a fin-tech company helping investors get a better handle on their finances.

Perth Tolle, founder of Life and Liberty Indexes -- the basis for the Freedom 100 Emerging Markets ETF -- says that companies based in countries run by autocrats are held back in many different ways, not the least of which is that they must compete for the favor of the government and the people in power, rather than being able to focus on serving the market and customers, and that investors who want to avoid much of the headline-making geopolitical risk present globally today from creeping into their portfolio will make freedom a factor in where they invest. Also on the show, forensic accountant Tracy Coenen, introduces us to Jackie and Derrick, the main characters in her book 'Find Me the Money,' and discusses financial dishonesty and the breakdown of joint financial control in marriage. Plus, former Wall Street Journal personal finance columnist Jonathan Clements -- now the editor at HumbleDollar.com -- discusses his new book, 'My Money Journey: How 30 People Found Financial Freedom and You Can Too,' and in

Simeon Hyman, global investment strategist at ProShares, says that investors are tempted in today's high-inflation environment to pursue stocks with high-but-fixed dividends, trying to generate any sort of positive real return. Instead, Hyman says investors should be looking for dividend growers -- companies consistently raising payouts -- rather than high current yields, because a stock with a dividend that's not growing 'is basically a fixed-coupon bond, and that's the worst thing to have in an inflationary environment.' Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs looks at an energy company that is underpriced and has room to do particularly well in a sector that he says is poised for solid growth, Sam Huisache discusses the latest survey from Clever Real Estate, showing that two thirds of the members of Generation X don't think they will be able to retire by age 65, and Hunter Doble of Hotchkis and Wiley Mid Cap Value talks growing value stocks in the Market Call.

Que Nguyen, chief investment officer of equity strategies at Research Affiliates, says that the high probability of an upcoming recession is being priced into the market, and the more a downturn gets priced into stocks, the less investors have to fear because the damage is being done in advance. As a result, she says investors need to be looking for the inflection point where they want to buy in to get ahead of a recovery, even if that means digging in and holding for as much as three years to see the rebound play out. Also on the show, Roxanna Islam of VettaFi discusses how exchange-traded funds that invest in closed-end funds give investors diversified portfolios -- and all the benefits of investing deeply in the closed-end space -- in a one-stop shopping wrapper. In the Market Call, Jeff Muhlenkamp of the Muhlenkamp Fund talks about how the fund is dealing with high inflation -- since inflation is a component of its stock-picking methodology -- holding more cash and waiting for the right opportunity to put

Jake Jolly, head of investment analysis at BNY Mellon Investment Management, says that recent turmoil in the banking industry 'will do the additional work' of tightening credit conditions to get inflation down, but creating a recession in the process, with the downturn taking hold late this year or in 2024. Because this recession is 'a typical, monetary-policy induced recession,' Jolly expects that policy can normalize quickly, which should limit the downturn to the short time it takes to slay the inflation dragon. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a niche-focused financial-services fund his ETF of the Week, noting that it could start trending positively as the banking sector moves past recent problems. Plus, we revisit a recent conversation with Whitney Tilson of Empire Financial Research.

James St. Aubin, chief investment officer at Sierra Investment Management, says that we are looking at 'unusually uncertain times given what the market is trying to process right now,' specifically how the increased cost of credit and the decreased availability of credit will work its way through the economy. St. Aubin -- who uses a quantitative, tactical approach -- says the market could go in any direction from here, but he notes that there is more downside risk here even though the economy appears to be only facing a mild recession. He says that equity markets look vulnerable now, which should make investors consider risk management to ride things out. In the Market Call segment, David Rolfe, chief investment officer at Wedgewood Partners, talks about picking highly concentrated stock portfolios, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about whether or not to pay down debt -- rather than plow money into savings -- while inflation is running higher than standard dividend yields or interest rates on bank de

Terri Spath, chief investment officer at Zuma Wealth, says that investors should be looking for ways to play a slowing economy and a light recession, and she says that international stocks are likely to outperform U.S. stocks while that plays out. She also is adding to domestic fixed-income exposure with both Treasuries and high-yield corporates, noting that the latter is an asset class she would not have touched as recently as last year. The show also debuts a new regular feature called 'Find Me the Money,' featuring forensic accountant Tracy Coenen talking all about the importance of honest family conversations and disclosures about money. Plus, Matt Brannon discusses a recent Clever Real Estate survey on how Americans are feeling and handling financial stress, and Chuck answers a question about the new Apple savings account, the technology giant's latest foray into the financial world.

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor-in-chief of the Stock Traders’ Almanac, discusses 'calendar effects' -- the traditional 'Sell in May and go away; buy in October to get yourself sober' strategy that may not kick in this year until as late as June, but which should involve avoiding the worst of the year and a lot of market softness but no recession. Hirsch notes that since World War II the market has made most of its gains between October and April and this year is no exception, which will leave the market looking at a squishy, back-and-forth summer before things pick up again near the end of the year. Also on the show, Liz Weston of NerdWallet discusses how people can and should consider Social Security in ways that will maximize their payouts, delivering the best long-term impacts of the program; David Trainer of New Constructs puts First Solar -- a stock that's a darling of ESG funds -- into the Danger Zone, anticipating an earnings miss, and Matt Schulz of LendingTree discusses the site's latest survey showing what

Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says that the economy is headed for a mild recession likely to hit home during the second half of 2023, but she notes that last year's big drop in the stock market did a lot of work to the downside, and while the market's hot start to this year means there is room for more back-sliding, she thinks those declines are mostly buying opportunities for the recovery that will follow the recession. Mahajan isn't expecting a blockbuster bounce-back, but says that recoveries tend to be at least as long and strong as the downturns they follow. Also on the show, Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, discusses the municipal bond market thus far in 2023 -- when it has been swinging wildly around headlines and macro changes -- and says investors need to drill down to look at individual issuers to deal better with the mixed signals the market is sending. In the Market Call, Clark Kendall, chief executive officer at Kendall Capital Manage

Harin De Silva, manager of the Allspring U.S. Long/Short Equity, says that there are a lot of companies 'priced for perfection in a slowing economy in a slowing global business cycle,' creating a big opportunity for investors who are shorting stocks, betting that they will fall in price. De Silva says that the long side of his job -- finding stocks to buy -- is challenging, and he notes that his biggest concerns right now are wildcard risks like the banking crisis, war and more. De Silva expects the situation to return to more normal times -- favoring the buys and moving away from the shorts -- by the fall. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a big, brand-name fund full of giant brand-name stocks his ETF of the Week, financial adviser Robert Levitt talks about how Americans may find that their retirement savings lasts longer abroad, but notes that there are challenges to making the move, and Chuck discusses what Wednesday's inflation news does for the future attractiveness of inflation-protected U.S.

Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that the stock market is close to its fair value right now, but that 'the expensive industries the way we measure value are leading and the bargains are lagging and very sluggish,' a situation that is unsustainable and that will lead to volatile, choppy, sideways markets for the next few months. Callahan says he is holding more cash than normal but he expects to be fully invested by the fall of 2023, when he expects the market to be 5 to 7 percent higher than it is today. Also on the show, Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp., discusses the 'golden handcuffs' that the rapid increase in mortgage rates have put on many long-time homeowners, locking them into their properties and altering the housing market's prospects in ways typically overlooked by buyers and sellers, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's recent survey showing that a majority of Americans are considering job chan

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says there are 'so many different headwinds' facing the market that 'we feel we're not quite through this yet.' He says that macro-level indicators are suggesting that the market will either re-test prior lows or set new ones, noting that current conditions suggest that there are enough positive indicators that investors should 'sit on your hands' and stand pat while watching the technicals play out. Also on the show, Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors and publisher of the Forbes/Fridson Income Securities Investor newsletter, says that  'the very rapid, most aggressive tightening of of rates that we have seen in a number of decades is behind us,' and that the bond market is 'more normal' than it has been in years, even as pockets like junk bonds and others are still a big concern for investors. In the Market Call, Gerry Frigon, chief investment officer at Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about bu

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says the market's wild swings after its hot start are the kind of action investors will have to put up with until the market sees inflation start to give way and confidence grows that the Federal reserve has made real progress. That said, he expects a recession this year but notes that the economy is lacking the conditions that typically make a downturn deep and protracted so he believes it will be mild and brief before a recovery starts. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, president at Closed-End Fund Advisors, discusses private equity and debt in closed-end funds as a way of diversifying yield and risk in portfolios now, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts another electric vehicle firm onto the list of 'zombie stocks' in The Danger Zone, and Bill Davis of Stance Capital and the Stance Equity ESG Large Cap Core ETF talks stocks in The Market Call.

Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. says investors should minimize portfolio moves — mostly to place a slightly greater emphasis on bonds — as they won’t be waiting long to see a mild recession lead to a reasonably robust recovery. Schutte expects small-cap companies and international investments to be among the leading group, with large stocks suffering during the decline  Also on the show, Tom Rieman, head of wealth solutions at J.D. Power, discusses the firm’s look at how investors are largely dissatisfied with their current financial advisers after struggling through 2022, and Tom Lydon from VettaFi makes a fund with an entrepreneurial focus his ETF of the Week  

Alan Gayle, president of ViaNova Investment Management, says that positive economic fundamentals are being tempered and offset by higher inflation and interest rates, giving investors a laundry list of concerns over growth and the stock market, but he notes that the bond market is looking more like its old self than it has in years, giving investors asset allocation choices that will help them ride out the brewing economic storm. Also on the show, Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, discusses why gold has been on the upswing despite not effectively playing its traditional role as an inflation hedge over the last few years, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com covers a survey showing that consumers aren't effectively using credit card rewards, and Chuck talks about how now is a time when investors may want to focus on 'active holding' rather than buying or selling securities.

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says a mild recession is coming, and he is diversifying internationally as part of his moves to deal with it, noting that international markets not only have valuation advantages against their U.S. counterparts, but as a currency play, noting that a rally in the yen or the Euro would create a tailwind for investors. In The Book Interview, Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist of The Oxford Club and author of 'Get Rich With Dividends' -- the new third edition was released today -- talks about dividend strategies in a rising-rate environment. Plus, Chuck takes a contentious listener question about laddered portfolios now, and Sam Huisache of Clever Real Estate talks about the alarming rate of inflation in home prices compared to the higher prices consumers are paying on everything else.

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says he is doubtful that the market's current rally can go on for too much longer, and when he sees profit levels decline it will be time to lighten up on equities and buckle up for a recession and downturn. In The Big Interview, he says the firm is diversifying and nimble, with real assets, TIPs and other fixed-income securities providing ballast to a portfolio that includes a lot of international exposure to balance out domestic equities. Greg McBride, chief financial strategist at BankRate.com discusses the firm's recent survey showing that online savings accounts have become much more attractive, but investors and savers aren't using them despite their improved payouts, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Carrier Global Corp. -- with highly overstated street earnings -- in the Danger Zone, and Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments talks about 'Warren Buffett style value investing in The Market Call.

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says that 'people are way underallocated,' nervously sitting in cash and Treasuries while waiting for market troubles to play out, but when those investors get FOMO -- a fear of missing out -- and the money starts flowing back into investments, it will lift both the stock and bond markets. DeGarner expects a big comeback in 60-40 portfolios this year and says that several commodities markets are now trading at levels that present a good opportunity for investors to get back in, in turn spurring the FOMO of investors to help the rally pick up speed. In The Big Interview, Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, notes that the year has been a surprise due to the banking crisis and other problems that didn't stop the NASDAQ from having its best quarter in years, and he expects the market to digest problems and get healthier over the next six months. In The NAVigator segment, Cheryl Pate of the Angel Oak Financial Strateg

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says the current troubles with the banking industry and the market's struggles with inflation are  setting the stage for a new cycle, noting that if inflation comes down and the Fed backs away from its stance it typically will improve conditions for investors. Levitt notes that investors are wondering whether the current situation looks like the 1990s -- when a downturn represented a great opportunity -- or like the 2008 financial crisis, where recovery took much longer, noting that he doesn't see conditions looking like they will result in the protracted, painful downturn. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, plays the uptrend in cryptocurrency with his pick for the ETF of the Week, and Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management, talks about finding growth at a reasonable price -- and what constitutes 'reasonable' -- in the Money Life Market Call.www.invesco.com/us