Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says that while headlines are driving investors to distraction, the stock market right now is neither too hot nor too cold. Other than regional banks, he says there's no blood in the streets, the market 'isn't screaming cheap or hugely overvalued either,' making this a time for investors to grind it out and work on their holding, rather than buying or selling. 'The key,' he says, 'is not in picking the next calamity, but avoiding the crazy nonsense.' Sarah Foster discusses her recent story on Bankrate.com on how inflation is damaging the finances of younger generations and how that has the potential to damage the economy as Gen Z and millennials adjust their spending and savings habits. And, in the Market Call, Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors looks at the macro picture and talks about which exchange-traded funds can take advantage of the current opportunities.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, expects a modest recession where investors can benefit from riding it out with a greater exposure to fixed income and a more-balanced portfolio, but he also notes that there are plenty of worrisome wildcards that could impact the market and economy. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market is going through 'a bottoming process,' but needs more confirmation that a new uptrend has developed before shifting from a current-defensive stance to something more aggressive; he is looking for better performance from growth stocks moving forward, noting that they typically thrive about six months after a rate-hike cycle peaks. Plus, in The Book Interview, author Liz Hoffman tells tales of pandemic perseverance and recovery as detailed in 'Crash Landing: The Inside Story of How the World's Biggest Companies Survived an Economy on the Brink.'

Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the last 15 months have shown a persistent lack of bullish sentiment, with roughly 20 of the 70 lowest readings ever for optimism in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey, a weekly poll that dates back to 1987. Likewise, bearishness has been near record levels consistently. Rotblut notes that the survey did not show this kind of consistent high-pessimism/low-bullishness sentiment during the global financial crisis, the dot-com bust, the Gulf War and more. Also on the show, Mervin Jebaraj discusses the National Association for Business Economics study released today showing that more than 70 percent of economists believe the Federal Reserve will not be able to get headline inflation numbers to or below 4 percent this year. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs, singles out MGM Resorts International as the stock with the most overstated street estimates, and discusses how that is likely to translate into continued deeper dec

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that the market is just starting a whole lot of market pain that will continue into 2026 before reaching a real bottom and the start of another long-term buying opportunity. McClellan says there will be great trading opportunities within the downturn -- including the month of April -- but emphasized that the economy has a lot to digest before real recovery begins. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects a recession to begin in the second or third quarter of 2023, but says the decline is likely to be shallow, extending for six to 12 months depending on how the Federal Reserve responds to it. For investors looking to deal with those issues, Steve O’Neill, from RiverNorth says in The NAVigator segment that municipal bond closed-end funds are 'in the 99th percentile of cheapness,' making them a good relative bargain for investors willing to ride out the current storm. And in the Market Call, Allen Bond, head of research at Jensen Inv

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says that the Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it still needs to fight to get the Fed Funds rate above the rate of inflation to put the brakes on the economy, and while the Fed seemed to hint that it would only hike rates one more time this year, it's entirely possible that there will be more increases. What there won't be are rate cuts; McBride sizes up what it all means for consumers in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, turns to a popular and trending gold fund as an inflation/banking alternative with his 'ETF of the Week' and, in the Market Call, Brian Bollinger, president at Simply Safe Dividends talks about 'dividend safety scores' and finding appropriate income levels given rising rates and inflation.

Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, says that the financial concerns springing from the current bank concerns are building a currency and economic crises for the rest of the world, noting that the situation has changed interest-rate expectations for central banks around the globe. He expects the Federal Reserve to follow the path set by the ECB -- Europe's central bank -- moderating expectations and hinting at rate cuts starting late this year, triggering significant market volatility as investors respond to the news. Also on the show, Stan Haithcock — Stan the Annuity Man - returns to help Chuck answer a listener’s question about dollar-cost averaging into annuity products, Chuck discusses stock-picking gone wrong and Jim Cramer in today’s wild markets, and Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at Nixon Peabody Trust Co., talks stocks, funds and ETFs in the Money Life Market Call.

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the stock market's current issues around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others has investors revisiting their feelings and emotions from the financial crisis of 2008. This '2008-itis' is leading them to act scared at a time when they should instead be doing a temperature check to decide if their asset allocation is appropriate for what lies ahead, which Janasiewicz sees as a mild recession later this year. In the Market Call, however, Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor say that he expects a deeper downturn and recession as the economy struggles for inflation significantly longer than most people have expected. Conrad says dividend-paying stocks can help investors ride out the turmoil, provided they are consistent and acquired at the right price. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest survey from Bankrate.com on how taxpayers are reacting and responding to current conditions as they plan ahead for refu

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says he expects the stock market to end up in a ‘flattish trading range for 10 years, similar from 2000 to 2012,' but makes it clear that outcome is not going to be the fallout of current events in the banking industry but rather is the result of long-standing economic trends. Katie Reichart, director of equity strategies manager research at Morningstar, goes 'Off The News' discussing the impact that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has had on some mutual funds and how investors should react if their funds produce surprising results based on bad calls in the sector. Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a badly categorized 'mid-cap growth fund' into The Danger Zone and, in the Market Call, Salem Abraham, founder of Abraham Trading Company and manager of the Abraham Fortress Fund, talks about managing risk while picking stock.

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that the problem at the heart of the current banking crisis is the speed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, noting that it was nearly impossible for bankers to adjust their portfolios to absorb bond losses driven by those higher rates. Now, Doty says, the Fed may need to take steps to help inject liquidity back into the market -- even if that stops the progress made on inflation -- to give institutions a breather and stabilize the banking system. In the Big Interview, economist Lawrence Kotlikoff of MaxiFi.com says the current situation has the potential to develop into a full-blown, long-remembered crisis, and discusses what can be done to stop it from getting that far. In the Market Call, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi talks about investing in exchange-traded funds.

 Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist at Dreyfus-Mellon, says that for all of the concerns investors have about the economy -- fears that have been heightened due to headlines about bank collapses -- economic activity remains strong and is likely to stay that way for much of the time the Federal Reserve is trying to curb inflation. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks at a banking fund that has been buffeted by current events as an exemplar for trend-following with his ETF of the Week, Matthew Tuttle of Tuttle Capital -- which recently opened funds based on the picks of Jim Cramer -- discusses the pundit's call on Silicon Valley Bank, and Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com answers a listener's question.

Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says that the market has overreacted to the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank, pricing in the start of Federal Reserve rate cuts -- rather than the hikes it had been expecting -- as if the problems with the troubled bank was systemic and likely to take down a lot of institutions. While acknowledging that the situation muddies the outlook, Weisman says that he doesn't think history will remember the bank's collapse as the thing 'that precipitated the end of this expansion, the end of this tightening cycle and the next crisis.' Also on the show, Nick Nefouse, global head of multi-asset retirement solutions at BlackRock discusses how the changing economic environment and rising yields are impacting target-date and life-cycle strategies, and Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com answers a listener's question about the pros and cons of accepting a credit-limit increase. Plus, Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners talks stock investing in the Market Call. 

Matt Lloyd, chief investment strategist at Advisors Asset Management, says that investors should expect lower long-term returns over the next decade, with buy-and-hold strategies struggling more than in the past, with the change largely caused by shortened cycles in various sectors of the market that force investors to be more selective and to tilt portfolios based more on the shifts driven by economic activity. Lloyd says while he believes value investing will carry the day, his primary focus is on quality at a reasonable price. Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst for BankRate.com discusses the fallout from the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank. Plus, Matt Zajechowski discusses a Forbes Advisor study showing which subscriptions Americans will keep and cut as they react to inflation this year, and portfolio manager Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management looks at stocks with consistent earnings in the Money Life Market Call.

Blerina Uruci, chief US economist at T. Rowe Price, says the outlook for the economy is 'very, very challenging for 2023,' but the economic numbers are strong enough to keep momentum rolling but slowing for much of the year. She says the probability of a recession in the next 12 months is 'above 50 percent, and significantly so,' but the timing of when that happens depends mostly on the actions of the Federal Reserve, noting that if the Fed resumes larger rate hikes, it likely draws forward the recession and makes it happen sooner, while keeping hikes lower will push the downturn back into next year. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Sweetgreen -- which he put into the Danger Zone before it went through its initial public offering in 2021 -- onto his list of 'zombie stocks,' and Max Wasserman of Miramar Capital talks about income-producing stocks in the Market Call.

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says that most of the damage to the stock market caused by rising interest rates has been done, and that downside risk to valuations has been priced in, leaving the market in a situation where 'We don't need to have a lot of good news to end up with a good year.' McMillan expects the market to end the year on a positive note, although he expects the story to be high volatility throughout as investors digest interest rate and inflation news. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors, checks in on business-development companies as they complete their earnings season and after a harrowing day on the market on Thursday. Emily Thornton discusses the 2023 Tax Procrastinators Report from  IPX1031, showing that at least one in three Americans has reason to put off getting their taxes done this year. In the Market Call, Jeffrey DeMaso, editor of The Independent Vanguard Adviser talks about Vanguard funds and ETFs.

Doug Roberts, chief investment strategist at Channel Capital Research -- best known for his book on following the Fed to investment success -- says that investors are terrified that the Federal Reserve will overshoot on its strategy and throw the economy into a deep recession, but they have largely discounted the central bank's recent and current actions while they wait to see whether Chairman Jerome Powell decide just when a pivot can occur that drops interest rates and pushes inflation lower. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a 200-day moving-average play on a single-country fund covering a surprising market, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses a recent survey showing how many credit-card users are missing out on potential savings from balance-transfer offers and, in the Market Call, Chase Investment Counsel CEO Peter Tuz -- co-manager of the Chase Growth Fund -- talks about finding growth stocks at reasonable prices in a market that is struggling with today's headline risks.

James Choi, a professor of finance at Yale University, discusses his recent study on 'Popular Personal Financial Advice versus the Professors' -- which examines the recommendations of personalities like Suze Orman and Dave Ramsey compared to the standards of economists - -and discusses how the standard advice of saving 10 percent (or as much as possible) of your income from the beginnings of your working life leads to more times of struggle and no less in assets come retirement compared to smoothing savings out more proportionately against income over a lifetime spent saving, earning and spending.  Also on the show, Jeremy Pagan, equity research analyst at Morningstar discusses his recent analysis on the pros and cons of investing in REITs versus putting money directly into real estate in a rising-rate environment and, in the Market Call, Chris Natividad, chief investment officer at Equbot -- which runs the AI Powered Equity ETF -- talks about using artificial intelligence as a means of picking stocks.

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments says that the market has rallied this year on the hopes of a pivot from the FederalReserve, but the strong economic results have pushed the prospect of a Fed change in policy have moved farther out. Now, he says, the market is looking at 'an inflection point for earnings,' and he notes that current conditions have historically lead to a recession, which he sees as coming next year though he acknowledges it may not be a deep, long recession. Senitra horbrook, credit cards editor at ThePointsGuy.com talks about how rewards and loyalty programs are facing inflation the same way as the rest of the economy, and how consumers should respond to those changes. Plus Stan Haitchcock -- best known as 'Stan the Annuity Man' -- talks about how savers should be looking at annuities in a rising rate, high-inflation environment.

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market has never bottomed before the start of a recession, so if the current downturn doesn't rise to that level yet but you think it will, then the bottom has not been reached. The market, historically, peaks about six months before a recession, and it appears to be climbing to that peak and perhaps holding it longer than normal. It mean, he said, that there is likely a rally that ends in trouble later this year. Meanwhile, Matt Harris, chief investment officer at The Hausberg Group, says that the market has been in a trendless environment for months, failing to reach higher highs or lower lows to signal either an uptrend or downtrend; he sees continued opportunities in individual stocks even as the market moves sideways until it sorts things out. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs discusses a stock that looks good until you read the footnotes of its quarterly earnings filing carefully, but also highlights a stock investo

Adam Grimes, president of Talon Advisors, says investors have good reason to be defensive right now because while he sees strong potential for the market to make new highs in the next six months to the end of the year, only to then embark on a deep bear market. He says 'you have to approach this market by being bullish and bearish at the same time.' In The NAVigator segment, Jay Rhame, chief executive officer at Reaves Asset Management -- president of the Reaves Utility Income Fund says that the dividend-growth potential for utility companies makes them a viable investment option despite today's high interest-rate, high inflation conditions which typically are bad for the sector. Also on the show, Sam Huisache discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that 75 percent of Americans who move have regrets about the changes they've made, and Chuck Carlson, chief executive officer at Horizon Investment Services -- editor of The DRIP Investor newsletter -- talks stocks in the Market Call.

John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that the stock market has come back around to a good time for investors to buy the dips, largely because the market's decline last year did 'so much of the heavy lifting' to put stocks in a better buying position. While Petrides expects continued earnings contraction, he says 'We're probably closer to the bottom than we were at this time last year.' Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi picks a precious metals fund for a 200-day moving average play on current conditions, Meagan Dow, senior strategist at Edward Jones discusses the firm's recent survey showing that Americans are prioritizing financial wellness but aren't making much much progress toward it., and Burns McKinney of NFJ Investment Group, talks about buying value stocks in the Money Life Market Call.