Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Nigam Arora, editor of The Arora Report says that there's a disconnect between the messages being sent by market and economic fundamentals and technicals, with the technical indicators turning bullish despite longer-term economic data sending bearish signs. As a result, Arora says investors should expect significant volatility and should put more money into the short-term technicals to take advantage of the back-and-forth even as they become more conservative in their long-term investments. Michele Schneider, director of trading education and research at MarketGauge.com, echoed Arora's take on improving technicals, noting that until something changes in those indicators, 'We rally to resistance.' Also on the show, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the site's research into the record percentage of Americans who say they can't afford to pay a $1,000 emergency bill without going into debt. In the Market Call, Ryan Jacob, chief investment officer at the Jacob Funds talks about early

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the market is likely to close the month having achieved the 'January trifecta,' which is a Santa Claus rally (over the last five trading days of the old year and first two of the new), plus a positive January barometer -- where January's results set a trend for the year -- and then the 'first five days early warning system,' which holds that if the first five trading days of the year are up the full year's results have been positive more than 80 percent of the time. With two of those three indicators set and the third likely to be confirmed when the month ends tomorrow, Hirsch notes that his firm has upped its 2023 outlook to a 'best case scenario' for above-average pre-election year gains of 15 to 20 percent. If there's a surprise, Hirsch says, it is that the projection would be too low. Also on the show, Christian Mitchell discusses the latest results from Northwestern Mutual's 2022 'Planning and Progress Study,' which shows that Generation Z has bi

Tom Samuelson, chief investment officer at Vineyard Global Advisors, says that while the headlines and fundamentals are making investors nervous, there has been a shift to the positive in technical market measures, which he believes are starting to show signs of a market bottom and turn that has him bullish on the potential for a good year. Samuelson lays out a number of different technical reasons for optimism and says they turned quickly in the fall and early winter noting, for example, that 81 percent of global indices are now above their 200-day, long-term trend -- versus only 10 percent in October -- which shows that this 'has a lot of the underpinnings of the cusp of a new bull market.' In The Big Interview, Scott Lynn, founder and chief executive at Masterworks -- which created a marketplace for shares in works of art -- discusses the fine-art market, how it weathered the storm of the market's downturn in 2022 and why investors might turn to it for diversification now. Plus, Eric Purington of the abrdn

Phillip Wool,  head of research for Rayliant Global Advisors, says that investors who expect the U.S. economy to weaken or to suffer the effects of inflation for longer will find that emerging markets are more compelling than domestic markets in 2023, and he finds China particularly interesting as it pivots to a growth stance coming out of a Covid lockdown and reversing insular policies of the last few years. In a wide ranging Big Interview segment, Wool talks about how he is worried that private investments -- both equity and credit -- are headed for liquidity problems that could hamstring investors who are not expecting the whipsaw that comes when hard-to-value securities must be sold into a down market to meet redemption demand. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi celebrates 'the granddaddy' of exchange-traded funds with his ETF of the Week, Sarah Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's annual survey of checking-account fees, and Jim Cullen,  chief executive officer at Schaefer Cullen Capital Manage

Ron Sanchez, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Company International, says that he expects a modest slowdown and mild recession that is short-lived and shallow, and that the economy will show resilience in rebounding from that, but he notes that the following recovery will be equally mild and modest. Also on the show, Emily Brandon talks about a U.S. News and World Report survey showing that consumers are cutting back on retirement savings in the face of inflation and day-to-day cost-of-living increases,  Megan Moncrief of travel insurance portal Squaremouth discusses how travellers can protect themselves against potential pilot strikes and events like the recent Southwest Airlines breakdown, and David Wagner, portfolio manager for Aptus Capital Advisors and the Aptus actively managed exchange-traded funds covers stocks in the Market Call.

Larry Adam, chief investment officer at Raymond James, says the economy is going through a series of rotating, mini-recessions affecting certain industries, which will lead to a modest recession in the middle of the year, but once but that happens he expects interest rates to start falling, inflation to keep slowing and the Federal Reserve ending its tightening cycle, he expects price/earnings multiples to expand which should help markets go higher.  Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy at Fundstrat Global Advisors, is equally optimistic in the Talking Technicals segment, saying he expects the Standard and Poor's 500 Index to end the year up more than 15 percent near 4,500, with technical indicators suggesting to him that the worst is over and that the market bottomed out in October of 2022.  In The Market Call, Tom Graff, head of investments at Facet Wealth, discusses altering ETF portfolios to reflect coming changes in inflation, interest rates and more.

Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire, says he is tilting portfolios away from value and toward growth because investors have been willing to pay up for growth at times when there is no growth. As a result, with an economic slowdown being almost certain, Pursche is repositioning to take advantage of where the money is likely to go; he also sees opportunity in fixed-income and in the alternative income space, noting that yields have come up enough to be worth considering. Pursche notes in the Market Call, that despite the anticipated domestic slowdown, he is not turning to international investing right now. Also on the show, numismatics expert Bret Leifer talks about the market for collectible coins and whether it's performed in line with precious metals as inflation has returned in ways not seen in decades, Matt Brannon discusses a recent survey from Clever Real Estate showing that retirees saw their life savings decline by 10 percent in 2022 due to a mix of market losses and increased spending

David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com -- the president, Sierra Alpha Research -- says that until the stock market can get above its long-term trend line and show fundamental strength, investors may want to question how good things are really getting. Keller notes that there are plenty of reasons for optimism, but 'the proof is in the price,' and he will stay skeptical until the major benchmarks follow through on major barometers. Keller notes that the 3,800 level on the Standard and Poor's 500 is a key level to watch, as if the index drops below that level -- the low from December -- it could unleash some negative probabilities that investors may want to plan for. In The Big Interview, Paul Espinosa, lead manager of the top-rated Seafarer Overseas Value Fund, discusses why international markets and especially emerging markets are priced right for a rally, even as they digest issues ranging from war to inflation and more. The NAVigator segment features Nate Jones of closed-end fund powerhous

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners, says he believes what Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell has been saying about keeping the Fed funds rate elevated for longer, and if the central bank indeed pursues that strategy, the probability of a recession is high towards the end of the year or early in 2024. Mullaney says that for the first time in six years he is looking at increasing bond exposure to help get through what he expects to be a rough year. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi, looks at trends on the rise in emerging markets for his ETF of the Week, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com discusses some alarming trends in consumer credit, and Rob Lutts, president/chief investment officer at Cabot Wealth Management goes looking for good ideas among stocks in the Market Call.

Axel Merk who is president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says that while there are signs that the economy is improving, we're 'not out of the woods yet,' and the Federal Reserve 'can't declare victory.' Still, he thinks the central bank will get into wait-and-see mode after two more interest-rate hikes, noting that there may not be a trend reversal this year but that just stopping the hikes should be seen by investors as a good sign. Also on the show, Julie Ramhold, consumer analyst at DealNews.com, tells Chuck -- and you -- how to get a better bargain, or at least a better fit, if you are shopping for gym memberships now that the busy holiday period has ended and, in the Market Call, Mike Cerasoli, portfolio manager for the TrueShares Eagle Global Renewable Energy Income ETF gives his take on the energy market now.

Elliott Gue, editor of the Energy and Income Advisor newsletter, says in today's Money Life Market Call that even after the good year that energy stocks had in 2022, the sector has just started its first steps into a 'multi-year super cycle' driven by supply shortages caused by a lack of investment capital put into the sector over the last eight to 10 years. Gue says he expects 'significant outperformance from energy stocks versus the broader market,' continuing the results from 2022 for years to come. In The Big Interview, Giorgio Caputo, senior fund manager and head of multi-asset strategies at J.O. Hambro Capital Management, is worried about how central banks and markets will respond to rising commodity prices, which could lead to the return of six-dollar gas prices later this year; Caputo says that he is mindful of the risks facing long-duration assets if there is indeed another bout of inflation. That condition also would be a headwind for growth stocks, technology companies, utilities, bond-like equitie

Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers, says that the key disagreement in the market right now -- the one that it struggles to price in -- is when the Federal Reserve will stop raising rates and start cutting rates. Until there is some clarity there, the market will continue to struggle, and investors should be eyeing earnings season to see what it says for the strength of the economy and what it signals about a potential recession. Jeffrey Bierman, founder of TheQuantGuy.com, says that he expects the next set of economic data to sound a downbeat note that will turn the market from a soft rally toward six months of trouble that will end in the fourth quarter with a rally. And Axel Merk, chief investment officer of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, says that the market is pricing in a recession already, but that assumes the Fed will get its moves right; he says there could be significant volatility if the central bank struggles to achieve its goals, and notes that gold is being embraced

Jason Vaillancourt, global macro strategist at Putnam Investments, expects a recession that impacts corporate earnings more than it does Main Street, though the downturn he foresees is not immediate. Vaillancourt expects the market to be messy, even though he does not think the market will make new lows much beyond the worst of 2022, but he thinks the market will suffer due to the pressure on corporate earnings. Vaillancourt likes international markets right now, notes that there is a wide dispersion of earnings but the conditions in Europe are relatively cheap compared to the United States. The ETF of the Week features Tom Lydon, vice chairman of VettaFi discussing the JPMorgan Equity Premium Income fund, which Chuck bought after it was discussed in the segment a few years ago, but which he sold recently during tax-loss harvesting season. And in the Market Call, Jason Browne, president at Alexis Investment Partners and manager of the Alexis Practical Tactical ETF says that international funds are looking goo

Veteran money manager Bob Doll, chief investment officer at Crossmark Global Investments has been making 10 forecasts for every new year since the 1990s and he unveiled his 10 predictions for 2023 today, calling for a shallow recession that is followed by an equally shallow recovery before year's end. Doll says inflation will fall by a good amount but not get near the Federal Reserve's target rate of 2 percent, which leaves the market caught in the middle hoping that the central bank will change its policies to appease the market. He doesn't think the Fed will back off, especially when it comes to moving interest rates up to 5.5 percent, where he thinks they will remain into 2024. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the mixed bag of results from the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, and Tom McIntyre of McIntyre, Freedman and Flynn talks about investing in stocks while reacting to the news in the Money Life Market Call.

Patrick Luce, economist at ITR Economics says that the slowing cycle the economy will be going through this year will result in a hard landing late this year and into 2024. Luce still sees the consumer being in good shape to help power the economy along, which is why he expects the recession to be mild and reminiscent of the mid-1990s. Still after a recovery that will run most of the second half of this decade, Luce says the market is headed for real trouble -- another Great Depression -- in the 2030s. Dan Zanger, chief technical officer at ChartPattern.com offers some short and intermediate optimism, noting that the first week of the year tends to portend the action for the entire year and 2023 got off to an optimistic start. Zanger sees the best current opportunities in international stocks, particularly some big-name companies in China. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about taking an annuity or a lump-sum as they leave behind an employer who offered them a pension settlement, and Abby

Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, says the end of the overheating economy is drawing near, which is why the economy will continue softening early this year, setting up a rebound once the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates which he expects to happen in the fall. Adams expects the Federal Reserve to have two more rate increases over the next two months, driving down economic activity as a result, ultimately delivering the drop in inflation that the Fed is aiming for. Also on the show, Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, discusses investors sentiment and which investment strategies held up best for individuals during the downturn of 2022, Silvio Tavares, President and CEO at VantageScore talks about the average American's credit score and how it is trending now that inflation and interest rates are running at their hottest levels in decades and, in the Danger Zone segment, David Trainer of New Constructs explains why pet-supply retailer Chewy is a barking dog of a stock right now.

Frank Holmes, chief executive and chief investment officer at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes the stock market could drop by as much as 25 percent this year before rebounding late, saying that stocks could end the year down 10 percent, although with positive surprises they could find a way to finish the year in the black, maybe even by double-digits. That surprise would depend on how quickly the market processes the turn in the economy, which he sees as transitioning toward better times with the worst of the high inflation/rate-hiking cycle now in the past. Cheryl Pate, senior portfolio manager for Angel Oak Capital, also talks about the economy, noting that it's late in the cycle for rate hikes, but still early in the cycle for profit expansion amongst banks and financial-services companies, which historically benefit from high-rate markets. Also on the show, Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the ATAC Funds talks about how 2022 was an 'outlier' year statistically, and what that means for investors

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrte.com, says he expects the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates by a full percentage point but to then hold the line for the rest of the year once that hike is in place. McBride was careful to note that he does not expect the Fed to backtrack and start cutting rates at all this year, even as it sees inflation start to ease. That environment -- higher rates but declining inflation -- will create opportunities for savers using high-yield banking instruments. Also on the show, legendary money manager Ralph wanger -- a small-cap ace who ran the Acorn Fund for more than 30 years -- notes that 'Bear markets exist to destroy the stupidities of the previous bull market' and talks about how the current market is in the process of unwinding those excesses. Plus, Tom Lydon of VettaFi goes international with a trending pick as his ETF of the Week, and portfolio manager Andrery Kutuzov of Seven Canyons Advisors talks stocks in the Market Call.

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says that he expects 2023 to be when inflation and interest rates start coming down, which will not be comfortable to digest but he says he expects the stock market to get through it and finish the year higher, overcoming a brief mid-year recession -- and possibly giving up some late 2022 gains as a volatile market bottoms out -- to register a 'better than sub-par year.' Also on the show, Joe Wiggins, author of  'The Intelligent Fund Investor: Practical Steps for Better Results in Active and Passive Funds' and, in the Market Call, Noland Langford of Left Brain Wealth Management talks about where he is finding growth and how corporate bonds have a chance to replace fast-growing companies as a safer, more reasonable way to navigate current market conditions, at least until the market can navigate the current rate and inflation environment.

Rob Arnott, chairman and chief executive officer at Research Affiliates, says that the Federal Reserve has made 'a series of mistakes' that he expects to continue with a pivot away from rate hikes that occurs too late to stop a recession. Still, Arnott believes that slowdown is already priced into the market, meaning that the worst of the bear market -- except for any last capitulation meltdown -- is behind us. Still, Arnott is not ready to invest much in domestic equities now, noting that he'd favor international and emerging markets stocks because they're better values and those markets seem to have already passed the 'peak fear' point that makes them more attractive than a U.S. market that's not quite there yet. Arnott also notes that value stocks are 'in their cheapest quintile in history,' making them a place for investors to turn once the market reaches the full-on buying stage again later this year. Also on the show, in the Market Call, Mark Travis, manager of the Intrepid Capital Funds, discusses the