Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Zed Osmani, portfolio manager for the Martin Currie Global Portfolio Trust, says the domestic and global economies could avoid a recession this year, although he sees a 65 to 70 percent chance of a sharp slowdown instead. Osmani says the key word for the year is 'pivot,' the centerpiece of a 'healthy bull-bear debate' about whether central banks will pivot in 2023 and how fast they will pivot; the result of that back-and-forth will be heightened volatility and a tough outcome to predict. Ted Rossman, senior industry analyst at Bankrate.com, discusses the recent news that America's cumulative credit card debt had reached an all-time high, Hailey Neff discusses a recent survey from Todayshomeowner.com showing that one in 20 American homes carries a million-dollar pricetag but asking whether one in 20 Americans can afford that much, and Kevin Kelly of Kelly ETFs talks about thematic investing in the Money Life Market Call.

Michael Kahn, senior market analyst at Lowry Research Corp., says that the technical indicators that the market peaked several weeks, 'screaming overbought, screaming this is not the time to be buying if you are not going to be holding forever,' which has the market in a short-term downturn even as the long-term outlook is positive. He notes that in times like these with conflicting signals, investors can nibble and be selective buyers, but they want to stick to the best names with positive fundamentals that can be held in line with the longer-term positive forecast. Jon Maier, chief investment officer at Global X discusses thematic investing and which themes or specialties stand out under current market conditions and which to avoid. Maier says that capital expenditure from corporations remain strong and investors should ride with that idea, particularly at a time when it appears that consumers are ready to cut spending, fatigued by inflation. And in the Market Call, David Kalis, portfolio manager at The Fut

Kathy Bostjancic, chief economist at Nationwide, says in The Big Interview that the economic data showing that both the economy and inflation are running hotter than expected is going to force the Federal reserve to make some moves that are more likely to trigger not just a recession but a harder landing for the economy. Bostjancic says the Fed has plenty of reason to keep tightening and the markets are starting to price in a bigger rate hike for the March meeting; if February economic data shows continued economic heat, the central bank's response could be the catalyst for a more protracted downturn. But not all economists agree with Bostjancic -- or with each other for that matter -- as shown when Ken Simonson, chief economist for Associated General Contractors of America discusses the latest Outlook survey from the National Association for Business Economics, released today and showing that there is no strong consensus for how the current situation will play out. Plus, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts Doo

Jim Welsh, portfolio manager at Smart Portfolios and editor of the MacroTides newsletter, says that the next downturn is being set up by recent moves that have bolstered confidence and lulled investors into feeling good. When the market turns, closer to mid-year, Welsh thinks the disappointment of those investors will make the market more vulnerable to 'a significant decline,' which he believes will take the Standard and Poor's 500 down to the 3,500 level, with a hard-landing economy putting 3,200 within the realm of possibilities. In The Big Interview, Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group, foresees a 'growth recession,' likely to start in the second half of 2023 as consumers start to tighten up their spending. Rick says a recession, if it happens, will be mild. In The NAVigator segment, Steven Perry, vice president at XA Investments, discusses the benefits and risks associated with leverage in closed-end funds during a rising-rate environment, plus Chuck answers a listener's question about how he

Legendary mutual fund manager Bill Nygren of the Oakmark Fund, says that any recession would be an unusual one because there has never been such a weak economic environment with such strong labor and other key conditions. That makes it that auto stocks, consumer lending companies and other businesses that typically suffer in a recession could actually perform well. Nygren emphasizes that despite changing conditions, buying high-quality, cash-generating businesses at reasonable prices continues to work, noting that 'there are a lot of stocks today at single-digit P/E multiples,' and that investors who stock up on those names will look back in five years happy that they purchased the companies despite current chaos. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a young, unique fund that could diversify any portfolio his 'ETF of the Week,' and Mike Winter of Leatherback Asset Management and the Leatherback Long/Short Alternative Yield ETF makes his debut in the Market Call talking a mix of buys and shorts.

Brad Lamensdorf, strategist at The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report and chief executive at Active Alts, says the market is 'very, very extended' and is poised for a 20 percent correction that he expects to hit in the second quarter, driving the Standard and Poor's 500 below 3,500 before any real recovery can begin. Lamensdorf says the decline he expects will not be the result of a recession, because he believes the economy may be able to sidestep that kind of growth slowdown but stocks can't, owing to a fair value estimate that he pegs at 3,000 on the index. George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, looks at the same uncertainties and says they have moved gold to 'right where it should be,' positioned for a good year as the market sorts out everything from inflation and interest rates to geopolitical concerns in China and the war in Ukraine. Plus, Laura Adams discusses a Finder survey showing that more than half of American parents aren't paying their kids an allowance, and

Lisa Shalett, chief investment officer for wealth management at Morgan Stanley says 'Investors may be relying too much on recent trends to extrapolate corporate earnings resilience' at a time when corporate earnings are not impressive compared to  years past. Meanwhile, slowing economic growth means 'There's still a lot of room for downside in company earnings estimates if we just revert to the mean, forget about hard landing or soft landing." While Shalett thinks a recession is coming, nearly 70 percent of Americans believe it's already here, according to a recent survey; research analyst Jaime Dunaway-Seale of Clever Real Estate discusses the disconnect between economic numbers and consumer expectations. And in the Market Call, portfolio manager Eric McNew of Summit Global Investments discusses managing risk in current market conditions.

Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments, says that while the economic picture remains muddled, there has been an earnings recession -- successive quarters of decline -- and there is now potential for recovery. He says in The Big Interview that the Federal Reserve will not be able to put off a recession indefinitely, but that how investors feel about that economic slowdown can depend mostly on what level the decline starts from and gets to, and the Fed can mitigate a lot of the pain if it manages interest rates properly. feel different based on how far activity falls. Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, says that the technical indicators are all flashing go signs and 2023 is setting up strong with the market continuing to make higher lows and higher highs, with more and more securities participating in that rising trend. Fox says that if the market can stay above 4,300 on the Standard and Poor's 500, it will soon be testing levels as high as 4,500. In The NAVig

Joe Ferrara, investment strategist at Gateway Investment Advisers, says that a recent study done by his firm shows that many recent drivers of short-term market swings won't matter over time, because 'long-term returns after years like we had last year in 2022 are attractive but volatile,' which is precisely what he expects for the remainder of this year. Moreover, Ferrara notes that history indicates that -- if history holds true -- the market is likely to show a good five-year stretch after the troubled year, although that period will be rocky and is likely to include one down year too. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, goes back to the Vanguard Group for the second week in a row -- a rare move for him with any fund family -- to find his ETF of the Week, and Martin Leclerc, chief investment officer at Barrack Yard Advisors, says in the Market Call that he believes the market and economy have reached 'a generational pivot point' caused by the current form of capitalism 'not working for e

Chris Zaccarelli, chief investment officer for the Independent Advisor Alliance, says that the market has reached a time when the better things are in the present, the gloomier they set up for the future. He says that rather than a soft or hard landing for the economy, we could be facing 'no landing,' which further pushes back difficult times because 'the recession has not been canceled, it has just been delayed. I would argue that we are delaying the inevitable and ultimately the longer we delay it the worse it is going to be.' In the Market Call, James Abate, chief investment officer for Centre Asset Management and portfolio manager for the Centre Funds talks infrastructure investing. Plus, the latest installment of the Weird Financial News, featuring the 6-year-old who placed massive food orders from GrubHub when he was supposed to be playing on his father's phone.

John Mousseau, chief executive officer at Cumberland Advisors says that he sees the potential for the Federal Reserve to steer the economy clear of a recession, and while he expects volatility and notes that investors are right to be nervous about high inflation and the inverted yield curve, they should not be scared away from fixed income now. Mousseau notes that with inflation starting to ease up while rates have been rising, investors are being paid well for taking on short- and intermediate bonds.  In The Book Interview, Scarlett Cochran -- author of 'It’s Not About the Money: A Proven Path to Building Wealth and Living the Rich Life You Deserve,' discusses finding the right balance of savings and investing with spending and enjoying life, and she and Chuck discuss how one area where she diverges from most experts is in suggesting that debt be a tool to help consumers embrace and use smartly rather than avoid out of fear. Also on the show, Rona Guymon of Nationwide Annuity discusses the firm's eighth ann

Emily Roland, co-chief investment strategist at  John Hancock Investment Management, says that macroeconomic signals show that a slowdown and recession are coming in the second half of the year, and while investors should be happy with current conditions and technicals supporting a current rally, she believes that signs like a sharply inverted yield curve,  declines in new orders portend a major downtrend in growth. As a result, investors are facing a challenge in managing risk now, and she suggests leaning more into fixed income now with a hard landing ahead, while also resisting the temptation to pull away from the market when they see it moving toward a bottom soon. Roland did acknowledge that later this year there may come a time when investors are much less happy with the economic backdrop but quite pleased with the stock market conditions. Also on the show, David Trainer, founder and president at New Constructs delivers a Valentine's Day bouquet by talking about a stock he likes now, noting that it's in

Cheryl Smith, economist and portfolio manager at Trillium Asset Management, says the current rally is not a sign of a new bull market, but rather proof that the effects of the Federal Reserve's rate hikes haven't really had much impact on the economy yet. She expects labor market softness to increase, layoffs to start and unemployment to rise, with the Fed not pulling back on interest rates until 2024, and while investors are waiting for that pivot they are likely to feel the effects of a hard landing for the economy. Smith's short and intermediate take -- dramatically different than other experts in the Big Interview this week --- said that while  she can't say the forecast for the next year is particularly positive, she believes the returns for the next five years will be in line with historic norms. Jeff Bishop, chief executive at RagingBull.com, says that the technical indicators are all looking good, but he's wary of the fundamentals and while that caution has him leaning to the bearish side, the market'

Marko Papic, chief strategist at Clocktower Group, says that equities bottom when inflation peaks, and that process -- typically coupled with the Federal Reserve becoming less hawkish -- is well underway. Papic says the Fed's downshift in the size of rate hikes at a time when inflation remains elevated is a sign that the central bank has already shifted its policy focus, and will lead to consumers having more money in their pocket and setting up 'a pretty bullish environment.' Papic expects the market and economy to be strong through 2023, but does seem some storm clouds on the horizon for late 2024, fertilized by some Fed action in trying to ultimately hit target inflation numbers. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to small-cap stocks -- which financial advisers have been looking at as one of the more promising areas of the market for this year -- and makes a growth fund his ETF of the Week, Matt Zajechowski discusses a study done for Forbes Advisor showing that nearly 80 percent of the members o

Jeanette Garretty, chief economist at Robertson Stephens Wealth Management, says there is a higher probability of a soft landing today than anyone foresaw at the end of 2022, and that the stock market's  strong January proved that investors are buying into the narrative. That said, Garretty says that what people expect a soft landing to be is 'fuzzy.' She expects a time of slowdown and belt tightening, with a little bit of pain and discomfort. Also on the show is Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which shows that the strong start to the year has investors feeling better than they have in months, although the improving feelings are tempered by an increase in consumers' financial stress levels. Also, Financial adviser and author Anthony Saccaro, discusses his new book, 'More Life Than Money: How Not to Outlive Your Savings,' and Chuck answers a listener's question about using an old credit card that is no longer needed for day-to-day fin

Sheraz Mian, director of research at Zacks Investment Research, says we may be 'close to the finish line with respect to how much [earnings estimates] needed to come down,' noting that earnings estimates have already come down about as far as they are likely to. Still, that doesn't give Mian reason to expect a strong rebound; he says corporate performance will lag the earnings cycle, which will lead to a sideways market with the real rebound to come in 2024. In the Talking Technicals segment, Jason Brown of The Brown Report says that he believes the market has stopped falling but has moved into a sideways channel, which could last for a while but which will help to build a base for a new bull market rally. Also on the show, Vince Shorb of the National Financial Educators Council discusses a survey showing that Americans believe they are losing a big chunk of money every year to their own financial illiteracy. In The Market Call, Mark Salzinger, chief investment officer at Salzinger Sheaff Brock, talks about t

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy at SLC Investments, says that 'everything is lining up pretty well that the Fed can shepherd the economy to the other side,' and that the markets are starting to agree with that conclusion, expecting a soft landing -- anemic growth but avoiding a deep decline -- and price improvement from here. Mullarkey also notes that he sees 2023 as 'the year of the yield,' which he described as 'a great opportunity to go to the fixed income buffet table and pick from it right now,' noting that he particularly likes U.S. corporate bonds. In The Book Interview, author Drago Dimitrov, discusses what he thinks investors should really know about the underlying operations of the stocks they purchase, as covered by his book 'What Does This Company Do? Understanding a Business and its Risks' David Trainer, president at New Constructs, takes that conversation a step further as he discusses a real-estate company that's a 'zombie stock,' but also part of a troubling wave within an industry.

Lawrence McMillan of OptionStrategist.com, president of McMillan Analysis, says that the technical indicators have all lined up so where there are no sell signals and the market could easily move up to recapture its August highs, though he acknowledges that the big concern is not something in the charts but rather is the Federal Reserve, 'which is not exactly bending over backwards to help the markets.' McMillan notes that he would like to see a confirming signal from a cumulative volume indicator to be convinced that it's a full-fledged bull market, but he intends to ride the trends while determining if the market is building long-term confidence. In The Big Interview, Tadas Viskanta, editor at Abnormal Returns, discusses how the changing landscape of financial blogs and media has left investors swimming in a sea of data that can be hard to cut through without succumbing to confirmation bias and other bad behavioural concerns. John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the chairman of the Act

Anastasia Amoroso, chief investment strategist at iCapital, says that while the market and economic fundamentals look pretty bad, those problems have been so obvious for so long that the market has adjusted to where it is now letting slight improvements in the data lead it higher. As a result, even if the numbers show just slight improvement, the market can react positively, which should make it that both the economy and market look much better late in 2023. Amoroso is concerned that the technicals overreacted to a good January, which could lead to short-term volatility or downturn, although she generally finds technicals showing a longer-term positive trend. In the ETF of the Week segment, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, revisits his pick from last week -- the classic Standard and Poor's 500 fund that started the exchange-traded fund business -- with a twist, making an equal-weight index fund his selection. And in the Market Call, Lauren Hill, portfolio manager and research analyst at Westwood Investmen

Contrarian-minded commodities expert Adam Rozencwajg, co-manager of the Goehring and Rozencwajg Resources fund says the energy market 'has a really unique setup' where prices have risen but money and investment has not flowed to the business, which is likely to extend the positive edge and duration of the current energy cycle. Rozencwajg says tight energy supplies will continue, having bullish implications for the whole sector until investors start pushing money into the sector. Also on the show, Jenna Lemair of Insuranks.com discusses the petflation and the site's survey on how animals and pet owners have not been immune from rising prices for food and medical care, Chuck answers a listener's question about tax-loss harvesting in the new year, and Sandy Villere, co-manager of the Villere Balanced and Villere Equity funds, talks stocks in the Market Call.