Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Legendary bond fund manager Dan Fuss -- the vice chairman at Loomis Sayles & Co. -- says that while the Federal Reserve was "caught and delayed" in responding to inflation, he gives them "a whole lot of credit" for pulling the economy out of the doldrums while avoiding a crash, noting that this central bank's performance is among the most impressive for any central bank he has watched in his 60-plus year career. Fuss says the market is "fund, it is one of the most impressive accomplishments he has seen from the central bankers. Fuss expects the yield curve the return to normal, but he says long rates will not come down as much as investors might expect. He remains positive on U.S. markets, though he says stocks look pricy and the bond market is fundamentally solid, albeit thinner than it has been due to higher rates, a situation he expects to change once the Fed begins cutting rates in 2024. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question on the state of 60-40 portfolios today; it's a follow-up ques

Garry Evans, chief asset allocation strategist at BCA Research, expects a recession in 2024 but says that the Federal Reserve has eased conditions enough that it will happen later in the year and likely will be mild. Still, he says the risk is that inflation is not really dead, and what happens if it starts to re-ignite. As a result, he is hedging against inflation and while he would like to use gold to do it -- although he notes it is "a hedge against central banks turning too dovish," and not a hedge on gold -- he is suggesting that the high price of precious metals makes it that he favors TIPs [Treasury inflation-protected securities]. Catherine Collinson, president of the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies discusses recent research on the retirement outlook for women. The Center's latest report shows more than half of the 3,000 women surveyed feel they don't have enough income to save for retirement, and less than one in five are very confident that they will be able to fully retire with a comfor

Jon Wolfenbarger, founder and chief executive officer at BullAndBearProfits.com says he foresees a market downturn of 60 percent in the next year or two, and that it could be down 50 percent from current levels a decade from now. Wolfenbarger bases that forecast on valuation levels "that are the highest they have been in history, higher than they were in 1929" or at the peak of the tech bubble. Wolfenbarger says a recession is coming soon if it hasn't already started, and that economic conditions will deteriorate from here based on indicators that are showing that trouble is about to hit home. Also on the show, Jason Callan, portfolio manager at Columbia Threadneedle Investments -- manager of the Columbia Strategic Income Fund -- says in the Big Interview that the economy still has some consequences to pay for the protracted inversion in the yield curve and how to position portfolios now that the Federal Reserve has indicated that it is likely to stop hiking rates but hasn't given more than mild ints about w

Doug Ramsey, chief investment officer for The Leuthold Group, says the stock market's recent rally most likely pushes the economic cycle out by a month or two, but he says that the amount of tightening that is already in place and the impacts of the inverted yield curve hitting the economy will finally come to roost in economic fallout that "down the road is going to be severe." Ramsey expects a recession in the first half of 2024, and has a lot of economic data that he suggests support that conclusion. Also on the show, David Trainer, founder/president of New Constructs, heads to "The Danger Zone" for one final time in 2023, noting that investors who think the market rally has removed all pressure from stocks are wrong. In The Market Call, Tom Hancock of GMO -- manager of the new GMO U.S. Quality ETF -- talks about what makes a quality stock and how to use those issues in a portfolio.

Bryan Cannon, chief portfolio strategist at Cannon Advisors, says we're in a secular bull market right now, but he notes that a secular bear -- usually not recognizable until it's in the rearview mirror -- could be close, because "you've never had inflation without a secular bear market." Cannon expects the current rally to continue into the new year, but he notes the charts and the trends could change along with the calendar, making it hard to read 2024. Also on the show, Sarah Foster discusses the latest Bankrate.com survey showing that some 60 percent of Americans say that their income has not kept pace with inflation. In The NAVigator segment, Adam Sparkman -- part of the team running the Thornburg Income Builder Opportunity Trust -- says "it's a different menu within fixed income entering 2024 than it was a couple of years ago," which has him increasing credit quality, taking less risk and lengthening maturity as we start seeing how potential rate cuts take shape.  Plus Daniel Kern, chief investment offi

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer at Wells Fargo Wealth & Investment Management -- president of the Wells Fargo Investment Institute -- says the market's current rally has it ahead of where it should be, and he expects a slowdown both for the economy and the stock market early in 2024, lasting until the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates and stimulates the economy, kicking off a strong second half of the year. In discussing Wells Fargo's outlook for 2024, Cronk recommends that investors keep some dry powder waiting for that inflection point. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi looks to a genomics fund that has been a bit out of favor for his ETF of the Week, noting that he thinks the fund and the area it invests in are ready for a takeoff. Plus, Glenn Tompkins, senior global market strategist at VectorVest makes his debut in the Market Call, and Chuck has a surprise extra segment based on the day's headlines.

Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management -- the nation's largest crypto index fund manager -- says that cryptocurrency has historically moved in four-year cycles, with a big move upwards followed by a big reset. Last year, when crypto suffered losses bigger than the down market, was the setback; now crypto assets are in the recovery phase -- which he says most investors aren't paying attention to -- setting up "a significant and sustained bull run in crypto." Also on the show, Brendan Ahern, chief investment officer, KraneShares -- the editor of ChinaLastNight.com -- says that a four-year losing streak in China has positioned the market there as a global value play, noting that he thinks many investors are lost in the headlines over trade concerns and focusing portfolios on the "very crowded trade" of U.S. markets rather than eyeing the potential for an economic turnaround/comeback in China. In the Market Call, portfolio manager Brian Mulberry of Zacks Investment Management, talks abo

Jurrien Timmer, director of global macro at Fidelity Investments, says that at surface levels it looks "like the Fed will stick the soft landing," but he notes that the markets "are primed and priced for that," and if the central bank falls short on its goals and inflation is more persistent than expected, that could be where trouble shows up for the stock market. Timmer says that part of his outlook on the Federal Reserve is that many of the conditions that lead to recession have played out, but have happened in fits and starts, allowing the economy to get through trouble without, on the whole, falling into a full recession. He expects that to continue -- at least delaying any recession if not postponing it indefinitely -- as the economy works through its remaining trouble spots. Also on the show, Toni Turner, president of TrendStar Group, says she expects the market to challenge new highs during a Santa Claus rally, though she does expect the market "to pull into a rest stop soon." Plus, David Snowball, fou

Michael Rosen, chief investment officer at Angeles Investments, says that while he believes the Federal Reserve is done increasing interest rates, it's not yet close to cutting them, and investors will want to lock in good returns for the longer term, so he is starting to lengthen maturities now to protect against reinvestment risk. Rosen notes that he does not currently expect a severe economic downturn in 2024, because he doesn't see the major imbalances or problems that typically cause a recession. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses a new Bankrate.com study which shows that holiday tipping -- annual gifts to service workers people see regularly rather than the kind of tipping that happens in restaurants -- is on the rise this season, despite economic conditions which would seem to motivate pullbacks, David Trainer of New Constructs weighs in on energy -- the top sector for stocks right now -- and real estate (the worst) in The Danger Zone, and Peter Tuz, president of Chase Investment Counsel, talks ab

Axel Merk, president and chief investment officer of the Merk Funds and Merk Investments, says that "higher for longer is not a strategy," which means that the Federal Reserve is setting up investors for a longer-lasting fallout than investors expect now. As a result, Merk says that the downside risk of the market right now is much greater than the upside potential now. Jeff Bishop of Raging Bull and Bullseye Trades sees the market as taking a small setback before the start of a Santa Claus rally that carries into the New Year, portending a strong year ahead for the market in 2024. Plus, Mike Taggart, closed-end fund specialist at Aberdeen, says that discounts in closed-end funds are "overplayed," and that investors who focus instead on income will likely be happier with the long-term outcome from their investments, and Patrick Healey, president of Caliber Financial Partners, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Jay Jacobs, U.S. Head of Thematic and Active Equity ETFs at BlackRock, says in The Big Interview that artificial intelligence will move from the early stage where people are investing because they love the concept into its commercialization phase where investors are attracted by the profits as they see new technologies emerge and start to take hold in 2024. Among his other investment themes for the year ahead, medical innovation, which he also expects to be helped along by the use of AI. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi looks at what's glittering now with his ETF of the Week, Will Hansen of the Plan Sponsor Council of America discusses the group's 66th Annual Survey of Profit Sharing and 401(k) Plans, which shows that Americans' have cut back on savings with the end of pandemic-driven stimulus dollars, and Amber Fairbanks of Impax Asset Management -- co-manager of the firm's new Global Social Leaders fund -- talks stocks in the Market Call.

Alan McKnight, chief investment officer at Regions Asset Management, sees a series of rolling recession hitting certain sectors and industries in 2024, but does not see a broad-based, classic and deep recession akin to one triggered by the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. He's not alone in suggesting the economy can escape next year without a recession, as Charlie Bobrinskoy, vice chairman at Ariel Investments says in the Market Call that he believes the stock market and economy are strong enough to put off a widespread and meaningful downturn for another year. Plus, the show starts with Jamila Soufrant, discussing her new book "Your Journey to Financial Freedom: A Step-by-Step Guide to Achieving Wealth and Happiness" and she offers some advice for listeners, no matter where they are on their own journey toward financial independence.

John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says that both stocks and bonds are relatively cheap right now, noting that if you back out the companies that have led the market this year -- the so-called "Magnificent Seven" --  stocks are trading at about 14 times earnings, which is a discount to where the market has been since the 1950s. Petrides says the biggest issues for 2024 will be whether the Federal Reserve can stick the landing without throwing the economy into recession and the outcome of the presidential election, but he doesn't think either of those will necessarily derail the market, with trouble more likely to arrive later in the year. Also on the show, Robin Saks Frankel discusses a recent USA Today Blueprint study showing that parents are supporting adult children to the tune of $718, on average, per month, long-time options trader Tony Saliba of Liquid Mercury makes his debut on the show talking technical analysis, and Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi, talks E

Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab & Co., says the best situation for the economy and market is 'a continuation of the roll through,' where rolling recessions allow some sectors to rebound while current weakness plays out. Sonders notes that while others include the presidential election cycle into their thinking, she doesn't put much emphasis on the election especially when there are constraints -- like debt, deficit and interest costs -- that make it hard for politicians to make any needle-moving actions. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer looks at understated profits, and offers up a stock where investors are at risk of missing out on a strong buying opportunity. In the Market Call, Andrew Graham, founder / portfolio manager at Jackson Square Capital, talks stocks.

Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says that rolling recessions haven't eliminated the possibility of a true, classic recession but she doesn't think there will be anything more than a shallow downturn in 2024 as the economy continues slowing to resolve inflation and other headline issues. She expects stocks to deliver "a comfortable return" in 2024, but with volatility and a "healthy" move toward equilibrium. Don Vandenbord, chief investment officer at Revere Asset Management, makes his debut on the show talking technicals and notes that short-term trends are all strong and that the market's recent run shows that performance is broadening out, which is a bullish sign. He sees mostly positives, although the longest-term indicators he follows have not yet turned fully green. Axel Merk of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, says that gold prices are most tightly correlated to "the confidence the market has in the central bank to manage inflation over time," so gold's rally over the last six

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says that the stock market "is a couple of hundred points ahead of where we should be," which means there's not a lot of upside here, but he does expect the factors driving the market to keep shifting away from growth and more towards value stocks. He says value and international stocks move together, and he expects them to turn positive now as value, international and small-cap stocks have been oversold. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi says there is no place like home, and no sector like home builders. And in the Market Callm Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Investment Partners talks about using macro factors to guide asset-allocation decisions before applying fundamentals and a bottoms-up approach to pick actual investments.

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says the stock market currently is priced for perfection that is unlikely to happen, noting that there has never been a time when the economy has slowed down but earnings have increased, but with consensus earnings growth estimates running in double digits, something appears to be off-kilter now.  That makes Dover cautious on stocks, though he acknowledges that dividend-paying stocks and slow-and-steady stocks should be solid performers. Also on the show, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, discusses the firm's 40th annual Christmas Price Index, comparing inflation in the broad economy to the price hikes that someone faces if they try to buy all the gifts in "The 12 Days of Christmas." And in the Market Call, Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor talks about income-producers in utility and energy companies, REITs and more.

Two different analysts -- looking at the economy and market from varying viewpoints -- agree on today's show that there is trouble ahead for the stock market and economy in 2024, and that the election cycle -- which historically holds that presidential election years are good times for the market -- isn't going to be able to keep trouble at bay until 2025. Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investments, says that the Federal Reserve's actions have postponed recession and a reasonably soft landing into 2024, but notes that he is looking for safe havens in bonds -- where he is looking longer term despite the inverted yield curve -- to ride out troubles. Meanwhile, Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that he expects a few more months of solid markets, particularly in large-cap stocks, before things turn and start a widespread decline that should start late in 2024 and that could last into 2026. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about finding ways

It's Cyber Monday and Chuck offers an alternative to the usual gift-buying pattern by talking about how savers and investors can now give gifts of stock easily and efficiently, teaching children and young adults like-long lessons about saving and investing. Moreover, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com stops by and discusses gifts from the past that haven't worked out so well, based on the site's research showing that Americans routinely have gift cards they have not used. Plus, Jeffrey Hirsch of Hirsch Holdings returns to the show to discuss the latest edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac, and we revisit a recent conversation with Brad Lamensdorf of The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report.

Clyde McGregor, portfolio manager for the Oakmark Equity and Income fund -- who is retiring at the end of the year -- returns to Money life noting that one of his former partners liked to say that "The hardest time to invest is always right now." That's how he feels today, with stocks feeling expensive and with so much money piled into the top stocks in the big indexes -- because past times when there was that concentration have played out poorly for the broad market -- but he notes that his fund is moving out of growthier companies he bought on sale last year to stocks that have done poorly this year but which are positioned for good returns moving forward. Celebrating Black Friday the Money Life way, Chuck goes discount shopping in closed-end funds with John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors -- chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance -- examining three funds to determine whether big current discounts represent a real deal, an average play or a fake-out. Plus, Maya Corbic, author o