Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Markus Schomer, chief economist for PineBridge Investments, says in "The Big Interview" that he believes the U.S. economy can avoid recession, not just through the remainder of this year but into 2023 -- when many experts say recession will become official -- as well. Schomer says that people misunderstand the type of economy we're in and the type of inflation we are living through; he believes the Covid economy is still playing out, and that the supply-demand equation will find balance again, and soon enough to keep things rolling without a major market meltdown. That said, Schomer's optimism stood in contrast to Adam Grimes of Talon Advisors, whose take on the market's technical indicators suggests that the ongoing market rebound is nothing more than a bear-market rally, set up to rise high and then reverse sharply, which he thinks will happen in line with the economy slowing down further later this year. Also on the show, Andrew Wellington, co-founder and chief investment officer at Lyrical Asset Managemen

Joe Keefe, president of Impax Asset Management and the Pax World Funds, says that there are enough positives for the economy right now that he would bet against a hard landing and a protracted recession, although he acknowledges that wildcards like war in Ukraine, trade tensions with China, political issues and more to make him "barely optimistic" that a "soft-ish landing" lies ahead. Also on the show, David Trainer of New Constructs highlights Rivian Automotive as another "zombie stock," pushed to death's door by rising interest rates and higher borrowing costs that he expects can sink the company from here, and Eric Sterner, chief investment officer at Apollon Wealth Management, talks ETFs and stocks in the Market Call.

Ed Clissold, chief U.S. strategist at Ned Davis Research, says that the stock market's recent rebound looks and feels more like the start of a new bull market than it does the standard bear-market rally, though he is not saying that the rebound signals the start of something big. The economy still has a lot to work through, much of which will not come to roost until 2023, Clissold says, and the current strength may be more of a sign that any future decline won't last too long or go excessively deep. Clissold says the U.S. remains the best market in the world, even as expectations have been lowered given economic conditions. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question about hiring a fee-only adviser who charges by the hour, Alicia Munnell of the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College discusses new bi-partisan legislation that she says fails to achieve its goals of offering real assistance to the nation's retirees, and John Cole Scott of Closed-End Fund Advisors and the Active Investment Company Allian

Brad McMillan, chief investment officer for Commonwealth Financial Network, says thatthe bond market tends to have the most accurate message for investors, noting that the bond market tends to be the dog while the stock market is the tail. Thus, the market is reacting to headlines, but the bond market tends to be more steady in its actions. MacMillan says the bond market currently is signalling a coming recession, with the inverted yield curve signalling it could happen in the next 12 to 18 months. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi.com, talks about international cash-cows as he picks his ETF of the Week, Meredith Stoddard of Fidelity Investments discusses the high physical, emotional and financial costs of being a caregiver to  both special-needs children and aging parents, and discusses the need for appropriate planning. And Corie Wagner, senior industry analyst at Savings.com, talks about the rising costs of participating in bachelor and bachelorette parties, and how it's not necessarily

Stanley Teitelbaum, a clinical psychologist who authored a book on the "self-defeating patterns" that individual investors make says that the market's first-half losses has pushed many investors into a bad type of inaction, one where they don't want to make a move until their position gets back to break-even or recaptures a recent high, neither of which is guaranteed. While no one wants to accept losses, Teitelbaum says investors who evaluate securities on their prospects rather than on the price of purchase will be making smarter moves. Also on the show, Chuck answers a question from a fortunate investor who wants to figure out what to do with an oversized cash stash, and Chance Finucane, chief investment officer at Oxbow Advisors, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Brian Jacobsen, senior investment strategist at Allspring Global Investments, says that if the Federal Reserve knew in March what it knows now in terms of economic health, it would have moved more cautiously. Having acted as it did, he thinks the Fed is unlikely to pull off the hoped-for soft landing, but he believes the market will avoid a crash, leaving the economy with a rough landing, one that could see the stock market improve late in the year before it finds more trouble in 2023. Jacobsen notes that he favors domestic and emerging markets for riding out the trouble, feeling that the U.S. is best positioned, that emerging markets minus China and Russia are the best value and developed Europe -- where he is underweight -- is headed for the toughest troubles. Also on the show, Michael Hershfield, chief executive officer at Accrue Savings, discusses the firm's survey of customers using "Buy Now, Pay Later" programs and how one-third of borrowers are using credit cards to cover those "later payments," meanin

Sheldon Jacobson, a University of illinois professor who specializes in operations research, discusses shrinkflation -- where companies hold prices steady but reduce packaging sizes as a means of disguising rising costs -- and says that while the trend is prevalent right now, it works poorly in high-inflation markets because consumers are only caught unaware for a moment. While consumers wake up to the trend and focus on unit prices, Jacobson says that shrinkflation has heavy costs on society, increasing packaging costs, waste production and more that are largely ignored. The show today also looks at the latest "mind the Gap" study from Morningstar with Amy Arnott, portfolio strategist for the research firm, who says that consumers continue seeing their personal performance lag behind the results of the funds they own, a sign of chasing performance and having poor timing results. In the Danger Zone segment, investment analyst Kyle Guske focuses on Beyond Meat, another "zombie stock" being pushed to the edge o

Armando Senra, head of Americas ETF and Index business for BlackRock, says that the Federal Reserve's message this week cleared a path for a slower pace of tightening over the remainder of the year, but that investors must embrace volatility and sustained inflation to take advantage of the market environment. Senra says that weathering the current market storm requires investors with a long-term outlook willing to look past current events to see the industries that will be poised for a comeback when economic conditions improve. In The NAVigator segment, portfolio manager Tim Ryan from Nuveen covers the municipal bond market and how it is disconnected with the Treasury market's inverted yield curve to offer some bounce-back potential for the second half of the year. Also on the show, Jake Wujastyk of TrendSpider.com discusses the market's technicals and how it is trying hard to find a level and build a base for the next rally, and in the Market Call, Art Amador of Equbot talks about using artificial intelligen

Chun Wang,  senior analyst and portfolio manager at the Leuthold Group, says that the market has priced in a shallow recession -- a near soft landing -- but that the Federal Reserve's record of engineering such a smooth outcome is poor, leaving a strong chance that the central bank tightens too much and dramatically increases the risk and severity of recession. Wang believes that inflation has peaked or nearly peaked, but that it will likely settle in around 5 percent -- a level higher than the Fed wants -- eliminating the obvious moves and leaving much harder choices amid a damaged market in 2023. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi talks about two key factors in today's market -- high quality and low volatility -- in picking his ETF of the Week, Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM returns to help Chuck answer an audience member's question on trying to take advantage of changes in exchange rates around the strengthening dollar, and Charles Rotblut of the American Association of Individual Invest

Giles Coghlan, chief currency analyst at HYCM, says that the economy is reaching a turning point where the Federal Reserve must consider slowing interest rate hikes or risk that those increases will kill off economic growth. Coghlan notes that while all central banks are dealing with this now, the US economy will have the largest impact on the potential for a global recession. Also on the show, Dan DeYoung, portfolio manager for Columbia Threadneedle's floating rate and high-yield bond funds discusses how rate hikes are impacting the credit markets and whether higher rates will trigger significantly greater levels of corporate defaults, Matt Schulz discusses a LendingTree study of how consumers are changing back-to-school shopping habits in the face of higher prices, and Chuck talks about a way to get a win out of the upcoming $1 billion MegaMillions jackpot without even buying a ticket.

Marko Papic, chief strategist at the Clocktower Group, says that while inflation in the range of 3 to 6 percent "will not kill" consumers, it will kill the technology sector because any unprofitable tech companies can't keep borrowing at super low rates to keep the business rolling while they get to profitability. He believes other markets besides the United States are better positioned to support their technology businesses moving forward, which is part of a trend that will see investors want to own China and Japan and Europe during times while inflation remains high. Also on the show, Nathan Furr, author of "The Upside of Uncertainty: A Guide to Finding Possibility in the Unknown," discusses how consumers and savers can lean into the uncertainty of current times and markets to find a path to something better and more interesting, Christian Mitchell of Northwestern Mutual discusses the latest release from the firm's 2022 Planning and Progress Study, which showed how planning significantly improved investor s

Justin Fitzpatrick, co-founder of Income Lab, says that while investors and retirement savers are starting to freak out about what the market has done to their portfolio values, they should be considering instead whether recent declines have actually impacted their ability to afford the retirement lifestyle they're planning. Funding your lifestyle is what matters in retirement, Fitzpatrick says, while movements in the market are fleeting and may not have much impact on retirement income. Zoe Barry of Zingeroo looks at how investors on the platform have been changing their behaviors in current markets, noting that many younger investors have turned away from the things they know and are comfortable with -- which was pushing them toward meme stocks and popular names -- to broaden out their holdings now. Also on the show, Ken Simonson, chief economist for the Associated General Contractors of America discusses the National Association for Business Economics July 2022 Business Conditions Survey released today, an

Vincent Reinhart, chief economist and macro strategist for Dreyfus and Mellon, says there is "no safe place for an investor right now except cash" and inflation-protected securities, due to high inflation and the Federal Reserve's inability to this point to get prices under control. As a result, Reinhart says that the economy is either in or entering a shallow recession, with a recovery that could take a while to arrive and that might not be particularly robust when it gets here. Ed Moya, senior market analyst at OANDA, talks technical analysis and why investors are so cautious about risky assets now and why they're not likely to act differently to the market until there's a reason for optimism return until inflation is no longer the primary driver for markets; Timothy Reick, chief executive officer at Liberty Street Advisors -- advisor to the Private Shares Fund -- discusses why private equity is an asset class that is not correlated to the broad stock market that individual investors largely overlook in the

Erik Weisman, chief economist at MFS Investments, says the macro environment is headed lower and weaker and will take the stock market with it, and while he does not expect this to lead to "a horrible outcome," but with the Federal Reserve likely to raise interest rates above ts comfort level in order to combat inflation, he has little doubt that a recession is coming. Weisman expects current challenges to last into 2023, but he is hopeful that the recession will come quickly to help it pass; he notes that if the recession doesn't happen until later in 2023, "it will be that much more difficult to achieve a soft landing." In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com looks at the long bonds and says they belong on investors' watch lists if trend lines keep moving in improving directions; in the Market Call, Gerry Frigon, chief investment officer at Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about growth investing and how the market's slow start to the year has put a lot of good businesses down to where they ar

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton -- head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says that the current stock market and economic situation is not going to play out exactly like some scenario from the past, so that experts are wasting their time harkening back to the 1970s or any other period to draw their forecasts. While many experts will say there's a mild recession in the offing, Dover says that anyone making that prediction needs to consider that there is the potential for something worse. In searching for safe havens, Dover notes that fixed income "now makes more sense than it did at the peak of the market," due to relative price differences caused by the stock and bond markets falling simultaneously through the first half of the year. Also on the show, Jeff Ptak, chief ratings officer at Morningstar, talks about research showing that star ratings -- which were always described as being backward-looking and not good predictors of future results -- actually have benefi

Michele Schneider, director of trading education at MarketGauge.com, says she has limited exposure to the stock market right now because technical analysis shows the market as being "stuck in a range," that she thinks is likely to end with a downward move, which could last until inflation problems are resolved. Schneider says the dollar could be peaking right now, which could create a prolonged boost for precious metals, "which we think haven't really woken up right now." Also on the show, Marketwatch columnist and editor Rex Nutting discusses his recent period about why Americans are so grumpy about the economy in a period where a deep dive through the numbers proves that conditions aren't as bad as angry investors and consumers are making them out to be. In the Market Call, Andrey Kutusov, portfolio manager at Seven Canyons Advisors, talks about being a growth-stock investor at a time when the market is showing signs of limited growth.

George Milling-Stanley, chief gold strategist at State Street Global Advisors, says that the Federal Reserve's signals that it will do whatever it takes to get inflation under control has created conditions in which all markets -- stocks, bonds, commodities and more -- suffer. While Milling-Stanley doesn't think the Fed wants to create a recession, but he says it will take that step if that's what's needed to "knock out any sense that inflationary expectations have become embedded" in the economy. Also on the show, John Petrides, portfolio manager at Tocqueville Asset Management, says the market is at a crossroads, where it could rally before year-end or where 2022 ends painfully. Petrides says the market is closer to the bottom than it was at the start of the year, but he expects three months of volatility before the market gets to where it can sort things out on inflation and set a path forward. And while the entire market might feel troubled right now, Kyle Guske of New Constructs sidesteps the "Danger Zon

Barry Ritholtz, chairman and chief investment officer at Ritholtz Wealth Management, says that the best way to manage volatility is to "Stop looking at the week-to-week, month-to-month numbers and you focus on five-, 10 and 20-year returns because, really, if you're an investor, that's what you re putting your money away for." Ritholtz says that some of the market's current meltdown is "just mean reversion," with the stock market giving back the above-average returns it had during the bull market run, but the bulk of the problem is rising interest rates, rising costs of capital and credit and more that is crimping consumer spending, business economics and slowing the growth of revenues and profits in Corporate America. Also on the show, David Keller, chief market strategist at StockCharts.com, says he could see the stock market heading much lower -- down another 15 percent or more from here -- before rallying, though he sees big-name stocks finding some stability soon and helping to set up a base for a recove

Joseph Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM, says while supply-chain induced inflation will ease up, housing inflation will require much more action on the part of policy-makers and he thinks it will be 2024 or '25 before home inflation stabilizes to something close to the Federal Reserve's targets. Brusuelas says there's "a 45 percent probability of a recession in the next 12 months,"  and he expects the market to move sideways until the Fed looks like it has resolved the inflation problem. In the interim, he says that investors may have to throw out the old saws and platitudes of money management to find industries poised to thrive regardless of market conditions. Also on the show, Tom Lydo of VettaFi.com discusses an ESG-based version of a standard broad-market index fund as the proverbial better mousetrap for investors to consider, and Louis Navellier of Navellier and Associates returns to the Market Call for the first time since the start of the pandemic to chat stocks and growth.

Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says he's concerned that Tether, the world's largest stablecoin, is a "fraud" and running out of money. He worries that if Tether crashes "the entire crypto sector goes with it ... and you don't want to invest in a sector where there's a 50-50 chance you'll lose half your money in a matter of days." Tilson talks extensively about what he does trust and is buying in current market conditions, noting that he is maintaining a balance between value stocks trading below their intrinsic value and companies with superior long-term growth characteristics. Also on the show, Bryan Armour, director of passive strategies research at Morningstar, discusses the firm's new survey on mutual fund fees, showing that consumers saved billions of dollars last year by investing in low-cost funds, bringing down the average expense ratio being paid even further, down to roughly 0.4 percent. And in the Market Call, Mike Larson, senior analyst at Weiss Ratings and e