Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Steve Rick, chief economist at CUNA Mutual Group says that while economic growth has slowed -- causing what might be considered a "growth recession" -- the economy itself should be able to avoid a full-blown recession, as inflation eases and consumers and investors realize "they kind of overreacted a bit" to current conditions. But there's also a second Big Interview with a guy named Steve on this show, as Steve Sosnick, chief market strategist at Interactive Brokers says that the market must first find stability in low-risk assets like short-term Treasury bonds before investors can accurately size up riskier assets like stocks. He sees selective opportunities for patient investors right now, while waiting for the Federal Reserve "to take the foot off the brakes," which he thinks will help the market set a bottom and move forward to a rebound. Also on the show, for the second consecutive week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com turns to a managed-futures, commodity-based fund as his "ETF of the Week."

Sam Stovall, chief market strategist for CFRA Research, says that there's more pain ahead for the stock market, but that the end of the year is likely to see a bounce-back that serves as the start of a recovery. Stovall expects the Standard & Poor's 500 to hit roughly 3,200 -- which would be a 33 percent decline, and an average bear market -- before the turnaround starts around the December holidays. Thus, he says, the market will end up down for the year, but positioned for 2023 to be a big gainer, with the sectors that have suffered the most during the downturn taking the lead during the rebound. "Those things that were beaten up are the ones that offer the greatest opportunity," Stovall says. Also on the show, Chuck talks about robo-call scams where consumers are told there has been an unauthorized purchase to their Amazon.com account -- and plays four different times he got such calls -- and Kevin Miller, chief investment officer at the E-valuator Funds talks funds and ETFs in the Market Call.

Paula Pant, host of the Afford Anything podcast says that high inflation certainly impacts consumers emotions and feelings about money but it hasn't had much impact on their ability to achieve their financial goals, noting that people can still 'afford anything, but not everything,' with some stepped up planning to help deal with higher prices. Also on the show, journalism professor Chris Roush discusses his new book, "The Future of Business Journalism: Why It Matters for Wall Street and Main Street," noting that the business journalism community has changed to where it doesn't serve most investors and consumers particularly well; in the Market Call, Salem Abraham, founder of Abraham Trading Co. and manager of Abraham Fortress fund makes his debut talking top-down stock-picking.

With the stock market off to its worst first-half start to a year since 1962, Anu Ganti, senior director of index investment strategy at S&P Global, points to her firm's analysis showing that there is "no correlation between first half of the year performance and second half of the year performance." That doesn't mean that a rally is in the offing -- with 10 of 11 sectors and roughly 90 percent of the S&P 500 stocks down this year -- but it means one is possible. That sentiment also was clear in a Talking Technicals interview with Matt Fox, president of Ithaca Wealth Management, who says the downturn this year is getting to the point where people might want to start investing into it, not expecting a rapid rally but recognizing that conditions will be changing and improving as we get toward the end of the year. Also on the show, Ben McCulloch, managing director and general counsel at XA Investments, discusses developments in interval funds and tender-offer funds, and John Sullivan of the Olstein All C

Darrell Cronk, chief investment officer for Wells Fargo Wealth and Investment Management, says that investors have endured the toughest start to a year for stocks and bonds in decades, but the mounting troubles should culminate in a recession in the second half of the year, with the downturn going deeper before a real recovery occurs. Cronk says that he thinks if the Standard & Poor's 500 were to hit 3,300, valuations will be so compelling that he will be "pounding the table" to get clients to buy. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi.com makes a managed-futures fund that has posted strong performance amid the market's troubles his ETF of the Week, John Boroff, vice president of youth investing at Fidelity Investments discusses the 2022 results from its "Teens and Money Study," and Chuck answers a listener's question about required minimum distributions for this year.

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at Bankrate.com, says that even though consumers are largely in better position than they were just a few years ago, they're not feeling it now as credit-card debt has been rising and savings levels shrinking in the face of inflation. As a result, the percentage of Americans saying they are uncomfortable financially has skyrocketed, with inflation as the cause because it doesn't just erode savings but it grates on confidence. Also on the show, David Elefant of Elefant Financial talks about the financial issues that the LGBTQIA community is worrying about as it considers the potential for political changes in the aftermath of the Supreme Court decision that reversed Roe vs. Wade. While Elefant is worried that financial rules affecting partners and same-sex marriages could change dramatically depending on which laws are passed or repealed, he says the situation is not as dire as scary headlines make it out to be. In the Market Call, Mark Travis of Intrepid Capital Managemen

Mark Newton, global head of technical strategy, Fundstrat Global Advisors, says that a healthy consumer and a market that has solid economic footing should lead to "a recession with a small R and not a capital R." Newtons says his models show a market bottoming out in July before turning significantly higher in September, thanks largely to higher interest rates already being baked into the market's expectations.  Newton says that the bear market has been in process for months, even if it was only just recognized by the media; the result is that a lot of damage was done before the headlines were made, increasing the likelihood that we are closer to the bottom than the start of trouble. Also on the show, Peter Crane of Crane Data -- publisher of Money Fund Intelligence -- talks about how rising interest rates have made money-market funds more attractive than they have been in over a decade, despite yields in the 1 percent range, Catherine Collinson discusses the Transamerica Center for Retirement Studies 2022 R

Adam Peck, co-founder of Riverwater Partners, says it's a buyer's market right now, especially in the small-cap space with stock prices having fallen to where there are more compelling values and real long-term opportunities. At the same time, he says in the Market Call interview that those conditions put a premium on sifting through the many potential buys to hone in on the right ones. Also on the show, Jim Cullen, founder of Schaefer Cullen Capital Management makes "The Case for Long-Term Value Investing'' -- which is the title of his new book, Kyle Guske from New Constructs talks about three zombie stocks with cash-flow issues so bad that their stocks could be headed to $0, and Megan Sanctorum discusses a recent study showing that people would need a surprisingly large win in the lottery before they would call it quits on their jobs. 

Jeffrey Bierman, chief market technician for TheoTrade and founder of TheQuantGuy.com, says that "much of the dirty work is behind us," with the market now reaching a point "where the values are the most compelling I have seen in 25 years." Bierman last appeared on Money Life in December of 2021, and was extremely cautious, expecting the market to hit a low of between 3,600 and 3,800 on the Standard & Poor's 500 within six months.  Bierman's model projects the S&P to drop to the 3,300-3,400 range, before building a base for recovery. "If interest rates can peak at some point and if money managers can get beyond staring at charts and start looking at value ... they are going to find that this is where millionaires are made, in these kinds of markets," Bierman says. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors answers questions from listeners, Catherine Yoshimoto of FTSE Russell discusses the "Russell Reconstitution" that changes the firm's benchmark indexes at

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the market's drawdown and valuations have performed in line with expectations for a typical recession, and while the third key component of a slowdown --  a big decline in earnings -- hasn't happened yet, he says the market is closer to having fully discounted current events, meaning that "We are closer to the end" of the downturn than the beginning. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a China ETF that has broken above its 50-day moving average -- but is still below longer-term measures -- his pick for ETF of the Week, Danetha Doe of Clever Real Estate discusses a survey looking at how ready homeowners are to accept and work with iBuyers, and Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor talks stocks in the Market Call.

Noted value investor Vitaliy Katsenelson, chief investment officer of Investment Management Associates -- who was on Tuesday's show discussing his new book, "Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life" -- returns to the show for a discussion of current market conditions and notes that investors in bull markets see their time horizons lengthen, but that time becomes shorter when investors are facing a downturn and see their assets shrinking. He warns against allowing the current market troubles and the market's short-term gyrations to influence long-term plans. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest CreditCards.com survey showing some surprising trends in how consumers are tipping in the post-pandemic environment, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to help Chuck answer a listener's question about setting up a tax-advantaged savings account for a newborn grandchild, and Jordan Kahn, chief investment officer of the ACM Funds -- manager of the ACM Dynamic Opportunity Fund -- makes his debut talking s

Ben Hunt, chief investment officer at Second Foundation Partners and the publisher of Epsilon Theory, says investors need to reduce their debts and balance sheet and to "reconnect with the real economy wherever you can" in order to ride out the coming storm that he sees playing out while the stock market digests interest-rate hikes and measures designed to curtail inflation. While Hunt says he is rooting for the scenario where there's a quick recovery after "a nasty recession," he says investors need to prepare for something that's longer-lasting and worse. Also on the show, money-manager Vitaliy Katsenelson discusses his new book "Soul in the Game: The Art of a Meaningful Life", and Jason Browne of Alexis Investment Partners discusses ETF investing in the Market Call. 

Veteran market observer Ralph Acampora, who helped develop market analytics and who is recognized as a pioneer in technical analysis, says the stock market had been setting up major tops for a while,  with the charts implying that the downturn would be roughly 30 percent from top to bottom. With that in mind, Acampora foresees "at least another 10, 12, 15 percent for the Dow and the S&P 500 on the down side," before any real recovery can start. Also on the show, Larry Holzenthaler, investment strategist and analyst for Nuveen, says that senior loans have been one of the few places to avoid the pain in the fixed-income markets, and they feel like a safer haven and a surprisingly good value right now compared to most parts of the credit market, and portfolio manager Gary Bradshaw of the Hodges Funds talks blue-chip stocks and dividend-payers in the Market Call.

Michael Gayed, portfolio manager for the tactically managed ATAC Funds says the Federal Reserve should have raised rates even more than it did Wednesday -- when the central bank made its biggest rate hike in almost 30 years -- because market and economic pain is inevitable and could be long-lasting, but there is growth potential once the market passes the troubles and starts a new recovery. This show also features Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi.com, making a brand new fund his ETF of the Week, Jill Gonzalez of WalletHub.com discussing the site's latest survey which shows that consumers are looking at rewards cards as a way to deal with inflation, and Rob Lutts, president of Cabot Wealth Management, talks growth investing in the Market Call.

Victoria Greene, chief investment officer at G Squared Private Wealth, says that investors should look at where they can be best off given current global economic conditions, and says that will bring investors to large-cap domestic value stocks, and she notes that investors may not want to pursue broad diversification because the strategy tends to struggle during times of stress. "It only works when the market is working," she says, "and right now the market isn't working." She expects a recession in short order, though she believes most investors should stick with their plans rather than making moves in response to market conditions and headlines driven by volatility. Also on the show, Ed Carson, news editor at Investor's Business Daily, discusses the latest IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, which showed that economic optimism is at its lowest point in over a decade, and the personal financial outlook has never been lower since the index was created in 2001. Mike Hunstad, global head of equity and quantitati

Dan Zanger, founder of Chartpattern.com, says "The 1970s are here again," bringing the dangers of persistent inflation back into play, creating long-term financial pain and putting the stock market in jeopardy of falling "50 to 65 percent before this is over." Zanger expects a protracted downturn, with no quick snap-back because the Federal Reserve can't prime the pump by lowering interest rates. "The sooner you get out and stay in cash," he says, "the better off you are going to be." Also on the show, author Eric Balchunas, discusses his recent book "The Bogle Effect: How John Bogle and Vanguard Turned Wall Street Inside Out and Saved Investors Trillions," and Scott Bennett, founder of Invest With Rules -- a service that tracks and reacts to the actions of big-time mutual fund managers -- talks stocks in the Market Call.

Victoria Fernandez, chief market strategist at Crossmark Global Investments, says that a recession is coming, but it's not imminent due to the economy's underlying strengths, including active consumers, corporate balance sheets and the labor market. While waiting for a recession to arrive late next year, Fernandez says investors should be taking advantage of down days in the market to buy up names that are on sale and better balance a portfolio to get through trouble. Also on the show, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com talks about whether the market's slow start to the year has made 2022 a particularly good time to consider converting traditional retirement accounts into Roth IRAs, Sara Foster of Bankrate.com discusses the site's recent survey on the emotions and financial stresses that consumers are living with now, and Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a mutual fund that gets a good rating from Morningstar into the Danger Zone, noting that the fund's holdings have it headed for trouble.

Michael Mullaney, director of global markets research at Boston Partners says that consumer demand should support the economy for the remainder of 2022 "without significant dire consequences," but he notes that 2023 is "another whole can of worms" and the Federal Reserve's plans to squash inflation is likely to have side effects that create a recession in 2023. Mullaney talks about the market's fundamental and technical sides, identifies segments and sectors he expects to lead and lag, and more in a wide-ranging Big Interview. In the NAVigator segment, Sam Brothwell, director of research at Energy Income Partners, says that the current cycle of under-investment in capital spending has made it harder for energy producers to respond to the current supply-demand imbalance; that has pushed energy prices -- for oil, natural gains, electricity and alternatives -- dramatically higher, where they are likely to stay for awhile. In the Market Call, Jonathan Browne, portfolio manager for the Robinson Funds, discusses in

Catherine Stienstra, head of municipal bond investments at Columbia Threadneedle Investments, says that the sharp sell-off that set bonds off to a bad start to the year -- and scared many investors out of the bond space -- has reached a pivot point, so that investors are now looking at "a rare opportunity" to get back in with higher yields and attractive valuations. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, makes a play on the dollar recently hitting a two-decade high against global currencies with his ETF of the Week, Chuck answers a listener's question about how to pay for/finance a big expense, and Rob Spivey, director of research for Valens Securities, talks stocks in the Market Call.

Paul Gruenwald, chief economist for S&P Global Ratings, says that despite the gloom being caused by high inflation, war and more, "If you step back, we're not in a terrible place." He notes that if inflation can be controlled and the labor market stays at current levels of full employment, that should lead to a good outcome once tensions ease. Gruenwald says that a big market decline, recession or proverbial day of reckoning is not a foregone conclusion; if the economy can be guided to a path where inflation reduces to Federal Reserve targets -- and growth hits those targets too -- he believes there is a reasonable glide path to better days ahead. Also on the show, money manager and author Adam Seessell discusses the continuing evolution of value investing and his book, "Where the Money Is: Value Investing in a Digital Age," plus Clark Kendall, president and chief executive officer at Kendall Capital discusses stock investing in the Market Call.