Art Of Boring

How we approach finding new ideas in the widest investment universe. Highlights Eagles and vultures mental model—why idea generation is better enabled by one shared investment philosophy and knowledge base E.g., Novo Nordisk and Publicis What is the “Bathroom List” and its role in our investment process and ESG considerations—e.g., JDE Peet’s Why nuance matters when incorporating scuttlebutt—e.g., Publicis How we’re continuously refining and improving our processes Current emerging markets exposure A walk through our qualitative risk assessment checklist Recommended reads from Manar  

Unpacking one of our key mental models around investing and managing risk. Highlights: What we mean by “non-predictive decision making” Examining the question, “what’s your outlook and how you are positioned accordingly?” through a non-predictive decision-making lens The important difference between vulnerabilities and triggers Vulnerabilities we’re paying attention to

Market drivers that stood out this quarter, where inflation is at, and an asset mix update. Highlights: How markets have been climbing a “wall of worry” Recalling Cisco Systems and considering implications around the current concentration of tech stocks in the S&P 500 Our thoughts on the continuing rate hikes and “soft landing” scenario Holding cash: what’s changed?

Top highlights from the team’s recent research trips and a few business models we’re excited about.   Highlights: Insights from visiting Norway, the Netherlands, Kazakhstan, India and some holdings—Equinor, AutoStore™, Ahold Delhaize, Adyen, Genmab, Kaspi, Weir, HDFC Bank Why we’ve been reducing our weight in China and our current thinking around regional exposures The unique competitive advantages of Compass Group and Chugai Current and future implications of AI for the portfolio and different business models—NVIDIA, TSMC, ASML, Samsung, RELX, Wolters Kluwer, Teleperformance

A deep dive into key themes we’ve been focusing on, recent additions to the portfolio, and a few changes.   Highlights: Quick recap: What has changed with the portfolio since 2022? What we mean by “engaged owners” (and the difference they can make) Why we are looking for companies with lower duration How we try to find a variant perception from the market—and some examples Recent additions to the portfolio: Dermapharm, Donnelley Financial, Hikma, Ipsos, SoftwareONE, and Technogym Our new approach to the reverse roadshow process

Why management teams matter, energy companies rarely meet our investment criteria, and JPMorgan and State Street differ from many regional banks.   Highlights Potential implications of the recent advancements in generative AI U.S. regional banking challenges and our exposure Why we don’t currently own any energy sector companies in the portfolio A look at two holdings—one “old” and one new—Verisk and BorgWarner Our observations on broader earnings results

Why genuine knowledge building and the ability to learn effectively in investing is difficult, and how we try to work around those challenges.   Highlights: Context setting: What does “epistemology” mean, and why did we get excited about it in relation to investing? What is knowledge? How do you create it? The two founding blocks: Inductive and deductive reasoning A contrast in knowledge approaches and evolutions—e.g., the airline industry vs. astrology The resonance behind the learning, trying to “win by not losing” How we aim to build knowledge by “closing the loop” on inductive learning: Journaling, timestamping, governance (and the Mawer Lab) Forecasting tournaments and “adjacent games” Also: Learning isn’t cost free Drawing from the wisdom of crowds—what conditions help foster learning within an organization? ChatGPT and AI: Potential implications for the learning process in investing

The major themes of the quarter, where we are in the interest rate hike cycle, and our thoughts on the recent banking crisis.   Highlights: The slow-moving impacts of central bank policy on inflation Our banking exposure Why it’s important for investors not to fear recessions Asset mix update

This episode, we discuss our seven-point management assessment framework (with examples), our risk management approach, and overall thoughts on energy.   Highlights: Why it’s difficult to find energy companies with sustainable competitive advantages—and where we see some opportunities—e.g., Parex Resources and International Petroleum Corporation Another way to look at geographic diversification? Revenue profiles in the portfolio (e.g., Jamieson Wellness Inc.) Diving into our Management Assessment Framework (MAF) and how we use it to determine if a management team is effective—E.g., Uni-Select and Element Fleet Visiting each floor of “The Mawer Risk Elevator”—and why the decision-making environment is the foundational level How rising interest rates can impact wealth creation

Digging into last year’s performance drivers, the current opportunity set, and benefits of resuming boots-on-the-ground research.   Highlights: A review of the market and our strategy’s performance in 2022 and three key learnings Why we exited Kakao, and some of the new additions to the portfolio: Salik, Vesta Risks we’re monitoring—and managing: China-U.S. tensions over Taiwan and geographic exposure in the portfolio The power of pricing power (see: TSMC) and types of ESG considerations that we look for in our investments (Petro Rio) How a shared investment philosophy and process makes for better decision making—e.g., Lonza, Hikma

The nuanced impacts of inflation to companies’ balance sheets that investors might be missing.   Highlights: How inflation can present major challenges to businesses Why investors need to look more closely at maintenance capital expenditures and depreciation expenditures—e.g., Dollar General A return to accounting basics and monitoring inventory balances—e.g., Johnson & Johnson

Chief Investment Officer Paul Moroz shares takeaways from the Research team's annual post-mortem discussions.   Highlights: The cyclical—and long-term—aspect to investment learnings Why interest rake hikes were a big factor and topic of conversation “Fishtailing” and the difficulties of trying to right-size information How emotional intelligence makes for better decision making “Simplify, clarify, focus” and offsetting the toll of complexity in processes

Portfolio Manager Crista Caughlin walks listeners through the tumultuous bond market experiences of 2022 and outlines three main economic scenarios the team is monitoring for 2023.   Highlights: Are reports of the 60/40 portfolio’s death greatly exaggerated? 2022 recap: What happened in bond markets? How can the yield curve un-invert? Key takeaways from researching Canadian household debt levels Adjustments to the portfolio: What changes have we made?

Some of the main challenges facing the continent, what we gleaned from visiting over 45 companies, and ESG considerations that are front of mind for major European investment firms. Highlights: Our thoughts on the prevailing macro concerns—e.g., inflation energy crisis “Collective corporate memory” and why the history of Europe is an important and unique context—particularly seen from a bottom-up perspective (e.g., Kuehne+Nagel, Lonza, Givaudan, SGS, Reckitt, Anglo American, Roche) Differentiation and operational effectiveness—what makes our European holdings competitive (e.g., Anglo American, Kuehne+Nagel) Germany’s longer-term energy outlook and potential implications for energy transition and infrastructure in Europe (e.g., Iberdrola, Shell, Equinor) ESG conference takeaways—the importance (and difficulty) of parsing and aggregating unstructured data, particularly for social considerations, and how we incorporate this into our investment process

A review of last quarter, the major themes and takeaways from 2022, and what’s on the horizon for the new year. Highlights: How we did—and what factors impacted relative performance Why 2022 was difficult for Balanced investors Discount rates have gone up…where are valuations at? Inflation expectations, interest rates, labour markets, earnings, and economic growth—what’s being monitored in 2023 Asset mix update

What investors can learn from the s-curves of technologies both old and new. Highlights How S-curves relate to TAM (total addressable market)—and what piqued our interest about them in the first place Types of S-curves Where different technologies fall into an S-curve: E.g., cars, refrigerators, landlines, TVs, Kindles, USB ports, and biologic drugs Are S-curves getting steeper?

What we think about the newly proposed tax on share buybacks in Canada, a balanced take on the energy theme, and where we’ve trimmed, exited, and added in the portfolio.   Highlights: Which sectors may be most affected by the buyback tax Holdings that showed strong fundamentals throughout this year’s volatility—e.g., Canadian Natural Resources, Suncor, Loblaws, Dollarama, and more Canadian real estate recap—e.g., Choice Properties and Granite REIT How we approach assessing big C-suite changes (CN Rail, Suncor, Bank of Nova Scotia) Major themes the team is thinking about for 2023

How do investors figure out what a company is worth? (Especially in a higher inflationary and interest rate environment?)   Highlights Why doing a qualitative assessment of each company is our first filter How we try to determine valuations without missing the actual fundamentals (e.g., Trisura and Kinsale) and why valuation is only one input in the investment decision-making process When DCF modelling can actually help us better understand the drivers of the business—e.g., Colliers—and also some of its pitfalls Choosing the right discount rate—why it’s more art than science and how we try to ensure consistency across the platform

A deep dive—right to the atomic level—of how semiconductors work and the potential implications for the industry when Moore’s Law comes to an end.   Highlights The transistor—a brief history What is a semiconductor? Why are they special? (Hint: atomic-level, laser precision manufacturing) HSMC, ASML, Amazon, KLA, Samsung—what the end of Moore’s Law might mean for various businesses in the semiconductor value chain Potential impacts to global productivity Will Rob continue to be underwhelmed by iPhone upgrades?

The deglobalization shift, long-term opportunities we’re seeing in utilities, and what’s interesting about gravel. Highlights: Impacts of currency swings and a strong U.S. dollar at the portfolio and company level Why we’re shifting to more domestic companies: E.g., Texas Instruments, Martin Marietta, Paychex The long-term runway potential for utilities—and renewables: E.g., Southern Company, AEP, Amphenol, and Linde How we’re adding resiliency to prepare for any scenario: E.g., AmerisourceBergen, Hershey, Intuit, Verisk