Jsedirect With Simon Brown

ff Capitec Results: Simon analyzes Capitec's recent financial results, highlighting strong metrics such as return on equity, active clients, and app usage. However, he notes concerns about the bank's expensive valuation compared to its competitors. SARB Monetary Policy Review: Simon discusses the South African Reserve Bank's recent review, indicating a reluctance for rate cuts in the near future due to inflationary pressures and economic uncertainties. Key takeaway from the bi-annual Monetary Policy Review of the @SAReserveBank: Don’t bet on a domestic interest rate cut this year. https://t.co/mhRS5vKIFQ pic.twitter.com/sc5p9GPcf5 — Adrian Saville (@AdrianSaville) April 24, 2024   Sasol Woes: Simon discusses Sasol's poor performance following a production update, expressing skepticism about its future prospects despite its low stock price. Other Market Updates: Simon touches on Tencent's positive performance, gold and oil price movements, and the potential impact on global markets * I hold ungeared

UK and Local Inflation: UK inflation surprises at 3.2%, lowest in over two years. US Fed unlikely to cut rates soon, waiting for FOMC meetings. South Africa's CPI data for March at 5.3%, showing a positive trend. Potential for SA rate cuts, depending on US decisions. [caption id="attachment_41866" align="aligncenter" width="849"] SA Inflation 5.3% for March 2024[/caption] China and Commodities: China's GDP surpasses expectations at 5.3%, amid concerns over Fitch downgrade. Export data reflects overstocking, driving prices down. Despite challenges, China's market appears interesting. [caption id="attachment_41867" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Chinese GDP YearONYear per quarter[/caption] PGMs, oil, gold, and other commodities. Gold remains strong, targeting $2500. Recent attack on Israel by Iran affects oil prices. WeBuyCars listing and potential market impact. Transaction Capital analysis and investor considerations. Purple Capital* Results: Purple Capital swings back to profit, surprising the mark

kk Sasol Secunda Reprieve Recap of Sasol's recent developments. Minister's agreement to Sasol's appeal regarding emissions at Secunda. Stock bounce and support level analysis. Target prices discussion and outlook for Sasol. PGM Miners' Performance Analysis of platinum group metal (PGM) miners' performance. Notable increases in stock prices. Consideration of factors affecting the industry, including production cuts and demand for catalytic converters. Exploration of whether the current uptrend indicates the beginning of a bull market. Discussion on supply and demand dynamics in the PGM market. Mention of Sibanye Stillwater's* CEO's forecast. Reflecting on year-to-date performance of PGMs. Insights into the future trajectory of PGM prices and potential risks. [caption id="attachment_41807" align="aligncenter" width="849"] PGM and miner moves for the month of April up to the 9th[/caption] Fitch Cuts China's Outlook to Negative Overview of Fitch's downgrade of China's outlook. Analysis of implications for

Commodity Market Analysis Oil prices are on the rise, currently trading around $89 per barrel, indicating both demand and supply factors at play. Factors affecting oil prices include supply disruptions from Russia and Saudi Arabia's production cuts through OPEC+. Concerns about inflation are reflected in the rising price of gold, which is currently trading at all-time highs above $2300 per ounce. Despite uncertainty, inflation is not expected to decrease soon, especially with increasing energy costs Discussion on the delayed rate cuts by the US Federal Reserve and the global outlook on inflation. Implications of Goldfield's Chilean Mine Production Goldfield's Chilean mine is expected to produce gold at significantly reduced costs in the coming years, potentially impacting global gold supply. Analysis of the time taken for new mines to commence production, highlighting the challenge of meeting future demand. Tax Collection Insights from SARS SARS reports an additional R10 billion in tax receipts, co

  Old Mutual Results: Surprisingly strong results from Old Mutual. Despite stagnant GDP growth and population decline, Old Mutual shows strong growth, indicating market share acquisition. Expansion into banking sector questioned due to market saturation. Stock analysis: Trading around 1184, showing potential support at 1150 and resistance at 1240-1280. Considered cheap with PE ratio around 7.7 and dividend yield over 7%. Market consensus predicts an average price target of 14.81. Skepticism remains regarding the bank launch and overall upside potential. MTN Results and Analysis: MTN's earnings affected by Naira devaluation in Nigeria. Earnings per share down 72%, impacted by tax issues and currency devaluation. Stock analysis: Chart showing positive signs, with potential for short-term growth. Market consensus includes three strong sells, five holds, and four buys. Telco sector struggles due to price pressures and constant capital expenditure. Limited upside potential for telco stocks, including MTN. ADv

Market Updates: Recent news on Markus Jooste's fine and tragic passing prompts reflection on justice and mental health awareness. Telkom's sale of its towers business for R6.75 billion highlights strategic shifts and potential opportunities in the telecom sector. Ongoing rise in oil prices raises concerns about inflationary pressures and global economic impacts. Market Analysis and Insights: Gold's Surge: Gold prices hit new all-time highs above $2200, reflecting investor concerns and market sentiment following Jerome Powell's recent statements on inflation and monetary policy. Gold mining companies show varied responses, with Pan-African, Goldfields, DRD, and Anglogold Ashanti experiencing gains. Interest Rates and Economic Outlook: Powell's announcement of no immediate rate cuts and a projected total of three cuts for the year signals a cautious approach towards inflation. Rising interest rates pose challenges for companies with significant debt burdens, while those with ample cash reserves stand to

Retire well, we're chatting with retirees about what they've learnt and any tricks they can pass on. US Inflation Trends: US inflation has remained stagnant at 3.2% since June of the previous year, defying expectations. Despite initial projections, inflation has not reached the anticipated 4% mark, staying just above 3%. Discussion on potential implications for the economy and monetary policy, including the possibility of a mid-year rate cut.   Local Property Market Concerns: Review of recent challenges facing Pick n Pay and its impact on property stocks and landlords. Analysis of Hyprop's trading update and its implications for the broader property sector. Discussion on potential strategies for landlords facing challenges from tenant closures and renegotiations. Quantum Food and Market Speculation: Examination of recent market speculation surrounding Quantum Foods and its stakeholders. Evaluation of market reactions to news events and projections for future stock performance. Get 10% off your firs

  Shoprite* Results and Market Comparison Discusses the recent Shoprite results, emphasising excellent performance against a high base. Highlights Shoprite's significant CapEx spending, customer savings, and market share gains. Compares market cap of Pick n Pay and Shoprite, pointing out the latter's cash reserves. Reflects on the historical revenue comparison between Shoprite and Pick n Pay over the past 20 years. Shoprite's Competitive Position and Stock Analysis Questions whether Shoprite is always destined to be an expensive stock. Analyzes the current PE ratio, forward PE, and 10-year mean, suggesting that the stock may not be as expensive as perceived. Shares consensus forecasts and target prices for Shoprite, indicating a potential undervaluation. Expresses the belief that Shoprite at ±R270 might not be as expensive as it appears, drawing parallels with the valuation of Nvidia. Shoprite's Success Factors and Pick n Pay's Struggles Explores the factors contributing to Shoprite's success, including cent

Nikkei 225 reached a new all-time high after 35 years Historical context: peaked in December 1989, 82% drawdown by March 2009. Factors contributing to the 80s crash: Yen protection, low rates, speculative bubble. Current challenges: aging population, economic complexities, recent inflation. Investment options: Sygnia JP (SYGJP) - JSE-traded, and Investec's structured product. Warren Buffett's Annual Letter Warren Buffett's annual letter to shareholders released. AGM scheduled for May 4th, details about screening yet to be announced. Historical and informative; available on BerkshireHathaway.com. City Lodge Results City Lodge results: Revenue up 10%, dividend up 20%, HEPS up 10%. Occupancy at 61%, pricing power at 65%. Challenges in margins due to increased focus on food and beverage. Comparison with other hospitality stocks: Sun International, Southern Sun. MultiChoice Canal+ Offer Canal+ acquires 35.01% of MultiChoice voting rights, triggering a mandatory offer. Takeover Regulation Panel ruling. Specu

Budget 2024 panel. For the last many years AJM Tax has done a post budget panel which includes Simon Brown and this year was no different. Hosted in Cape Town the panel was; Karyn Maughan, senior legal journalist at News24 Dr Albertus Marias, Director AJM Tax Azhar Varachhia, Managing director Alpha plus Capital Simon Brown, Just one Lap and MonewebNOW Below is the AJM Tax one pager of budget highlights. 

Pick n Pay* Chart Analysis Resistance zone around 26, potential to touch 26.70 Higher highs, higher lows, horizontal resistance Target: 30 bucks to fill the gap Comments on Pick n Pay's potential under Sean Summers No need for a rights issue, potential market spook if it happens Simon's position: Started building, considering more Current status: Down 1.7%, trading at 25.30 Pick n Pay close 13Feb24 (daily) Transaction Capital and WeBuyCars Transaction Capital planning to list WeBuyCars Unbundling process expected in March Valuation: 7.5 billion rand Key information: Founders' put option on Transaction Capital is off the table WeBuyCar's strong performance in January with a record 14,000 cars sold Market Cap of Transaction Capital: R6.5 billion Opportunities and challenges in SA Taxi business Overall assessment: Looking not too bad Current stock level: 850c Expectation of pro rata shares for Transaction Capital holders Timing details expected in the circular Gold Price Movement Gold weaker despite US an

Disney results: Last week's big story was about tech, starting with Disney, a stock recommended here back in September at ±$80. Key financials: Linear networks revenue up 9%, Direct-to-consumer up 12%, Parks up 16% Direct-to-consumer still incurred a loss of $400 million Consumer products, content sales licensing, and ESPN performance discussed Overall, not a knockout result but not terrible; I remain a satisfied shareholder Big move in streaming sports! ⚾️

Breaking News: Canal+ Offer for MultiChoice: Canal+, French TV business, offers 105 rand per share for MultiChoice minorities. Synergies between the two businesses. Legal considerations regarding foreign media ownership. MultiChoice closed at 75 rand; market likely to respond positively. Market Updates: Hyprop reports positive festive trading for its tenants. Transaction Capital plans to list WeBuyCars in March; potential value unlock. Evergrande declared bankrupt with over 300 billion dollars in debt. Hong Kong economy expanded 3.2% in 2023. China overtakes Japan as the world's top car exporter. Cristal Challenge Stock Picks: Richemont*: Luxury brand with potential in a recovering economy. [caption id="attachment_41062" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Richemont weekly chart close 31Jan24[/caption] Calgro M3*: Debt under control, potential dividend, well-managed company. [caption id="attachment_41063" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Calgro M3 weekly chart close 31Jan24[/caption] AngloGold Ashanti*: Gold

dd Introduction: JSE Direct Episode 571 for January 25, hosted by Simon Brown. Simon introduces the idea of transitioning the podcast to a live format using Riverside, allowing viewers to see charts and interact during recordings. Market Updates: Richemont*: Stock surged 10% on better-than-expected trading update. Identified as an opportunity last year when it pulled back to R2,500. Trading at R2,653 at the time of the recording. AVI: AVI delivered a strong update, but struggling with I&J. AVI focuses on defending margins, willing to lose volumes for profitability. Potential sale or listing of INJ discussed. Woolies*: Mixed trading update. Struggles in Australia, especially with David Jones, while food segment remains strong. Concerns about the performance of the clothing segment. Clicks: Mostly a strong update, struggles in UDP (wholesale drug distribution). Selling price inflation averaged 7.5%, higher than the previous period. Clicks achieved highest-ever daily sales in late December. Econom

In this episode of JSE Direct, Simon Brown discusses various market topics, including the bleak outlook of the Hang Seng Index due to Chinese GDP results. Positive news for Grindrod with the Maputo Port Development Company's impressive performance. The rise in uranium prices driven by increasing demand for nuclear power plants, he found two US listed ETFs benefiing from this trend. [caption id="attachment_40966" align="aligncenter" width="849"] Spot uranium price[/caption] The approval of 11 Bitcoin ETFs by the SEC. When does the JSE get a crypto ETF? Do elections matter for markets? Upcoming elections in 2024 across 70 countries. Simon explores the question of whether elections truly matter for investors, emphasising historical examples where market reactions were short-term and highlighting the importance of focusing on long-term investment strategies amid political volatility.

Now for the eleventh year in a row, we kick off the new year with a prediction show. Marc Ashton, Keith McLachlan and Simon Brown put their heads on the block with three wild and woolly predictions for the markets for 2024 followed by a call on the Top40 and ZAR for the year ahead. Importantly we start each show with a review of the previous year’s predictions and you’ll find the 2023 predictions show here.  

Position your portfolio for 2024. Top local ETFs for 2023. Simon Shares Transaction Capital (JSE code:TCP) results swung into a massive loss, no surprise. SA Taxi loss making but overall H2 was better then H1 in all three divisions. Purple Group* (JSE code: PPE) results also swung into a loss. But as a discretionary consumer business, why is everybody so surprised? Average client has 1.45 products. This seems low, very low. Philippines not yet regulated, but they not giving up. Project delays. Tigerbrands (JSE code: TBS) show a tough environment and RFG (JSE code: RFG) may offer better value. Local Q3 GDP at -0.2%. Gold at all-time highs. Charts by KoyFin. Get 15% off a two-year subscription * I hold ungeared positions. Simon Brown

Share buybacks and stock compensation, the bad and the ugly Share buybacks are good right? The company uses their free cash to buyback shares which reduces the number of remaining shares such that each share has a higher claim over future profits which adds to their value. Further they're tax efficient in that paying dividends results in dividend tax. BUT; Firstly, in cyclical stocks you need to be buying back at lows, not highs and the companies usually have no free cash at lows, so either they don't buy back or they do so at highs when they have the cash. Horrid value destruction. Secondly, some companies are buying back but also issuing new shares to staff, at times at a rate faster or similar to what they're buying back. This is then effectively an underhand salary to staff. This is especially an issue with large tech stocks, see examples below. Thirdly, new share issues are considered non-cash, but ultimately they are cash as you gave somebody real shares that have future claim on profits. Fourthly, oft