Money Life With Chuck Jaffe Daily Podcast

Jeffrey Cleveland, chief economist at Payden & Rygel, says that inflation could begin dropping next year while unemployment remains low, conditions which run counter to the traditional recessionary playbook. He says that the reasons for inflation over the last few years could be unique to the Covid era -- fiscal stimulus, unusual supply chains, a shift in how people spend money moving from services to goods, war in Ukraine and more -- which could set up "a great scenario" and a potential soft landing. He sees the economy side-stepping recession until late next year or 2024, and sees strong potential investment opportunities in the interim. Also on the show, David Ellison, portfolio manager covering the financial services sector for the Hennessy Funds, says that Wall Street is in recession but the rest of the economy isn't, and while Wall Street wants that kind of pain -- because a recession is good for Wall Street -- he doesn't see that kind of downturn materializing right now, agreeing with Cleveland tha

Adam Ballantyne, senior analyst at Cambiar Investors, says the Federal Reserve needs to keep talking as if inflation is far from over because their job is to dare us into a recession or near recession to cure the economy's problems, but he notes that "The reality is we might be peaking right here." Half of the inInflation is driven by housing, energy and medicare costs, and Ballantyne says those items do appear to have topped or are near to it, meaning "It could very well be the case that the next Fed rate increase is the last one." Ballantyne believes that the economy can also post a reasonable recovery from the current troubles, because consumers are not overextended, so they will be ready to participate once they are certain that prices are again under control. Also on the show, Ted Rossman from CreditCards.com discusses the pitfalls that consumers have experienced and worry about when lending money to friends and family, David Trainer, of New Constructs revisits his troubling take on Shopify, which he put

Shep Perkins, chief investment officer for equities at Putnam Investments, says that once the Federal Reserve sees an uptick in unemployment and the economy slowing and cuts back on rate increases, the stock market will find a bottom and begin a sharp recovery once the all-clear is sounded. While investors will need to be patient waiting for that rebound to start, Perkins says there are plenty of compelling values for patient investors who are willing to wait for investments made into today's bad news to pay off in tomorrow's profits. Also talking about compelling values on today's show is John Cole Scott, chief investment officer at Closed-End Fund Advisors, who says that today's rate uncertainty has created attractive entry points for some municipal-bond funds because they are trading at big discounts and, in many cases, have gone through a dividend cut, which reduces the potential for another cut moving forward. Plus, Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says the market has reached a sweet

George Bory, chief investment strategist for fixed income at Allspring Global Investments, says that the Federal Reserve's forth jumbo rate hike of the year -- announced yesterday -- is not likely to trigger a deep inflation, but the central bank did leave consumers wondering just how effective the rate hikes will be at slowing and ending inflation. - hiking activity will end or, at least slow, the rise in consumer prices. Bory adds that while higher yields are not great for all financial assets, they do help fixed-income investors to generate a reasonable real return now. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi also delves into interest rates by making a short-duration bond fund his pick for ETF of the Week honors, andi n the Market Call, Simon Lack of SL Advisors returns to the show to discuss energy infrastructure and pipeline companies.

Scott Wren, senior global market strategist for the Wells Fargo Investment Institute, says the stock market is in for some dicey moments heading into 2023 and through the first few months of the year, but he is calling for the Standard & Poor's 500 to hit 4,400 -- roughly 15 percent higher than it is today -- by the end of next year, a recovery that is set up by solid economic underpinnings that he says will come to the fore once inflation is under better control. Also on the show, Anu Ganti of S&P Global discusses how the Dow Jones Industrial Average during October posted its best month in nearly 47 years, Jerome Clark of T. Rowe Price -- a pioneer of target-date investing -- discusses how and why target-date investors have performed by staying the course in market times tempting them into making portfolio changes, and Lin Ho of Zelros covers the site's recent survey on how consumers feel they are being gouged for insurance coverage and how to make sure you're getting the most for your insurance dola

Greg Valliere, chief U.S. policy strategist for AGF Investments, says that while there is no sugar-coating the problems of the economy -- inflation, rising interest rates, a rough housing market and more -- the likely recession that lies ahead will be shallow, and will have a reasonable recovery once the Federal Reserve proves that the bitter medicine it is providing to quash inflation won't go overboard and kill the patient. Also on the show, Mark Hulbert discusses his recent column on MarketWatch where he added his own flair to some new academic research showing that the classic "4 percent rule" on retirement withdrawals is leading savers astray and that the proper spending amount to ensure that someone not outlive their money may be less than half of what most people are planning for. Plus Chuck talks about his annual cash-or-candy, trade-or-treat Halloween event and the choices his neighborhood kids went for when they came to his home Tuesday night.

Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says that the stock market has been signaling a coming recession -- albeit not likely to be "a deep scary one" -- but the key will be the speed of recovery, and that may hinge on how and when the Federal Reserve eases up on or reverses interest-rate hikes. Crosby notes that one thing that will help the recovery is that the dollar should weaken once the Fed makes it clear that the cycle of rate hikes is ending; she pointed to multi-national companies like Apple and Microsoft as examples of firms who saw global revenue growth hindered by the strength of the dollar. Also on the show: Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a four-star mutual fund into "The Danger Zone," noting that it's filled with dangerous stocks and that past performance isn't likely to dictate future success; Greg Jenkins, head of institutional defined contribution for Invesco, examines the firm's recent survey showing that employees feel alone -- and unsupported by their employers -- in try

Karl Mills, president of Jurika Mills & Kiefer, says that negative investor sentiment is a precondition of a rebound, but he's looking for more signals that the economy and stock market is bottoming out. For example, Mills says that earnings haven't declined much yet, but he expects them to because of the squeeze that current conditions are putting on profits. The result is that Mills is taking a cautious, "shelter from the storm" approach, noting that there is still a lot of downside risk even though the market can see and already price in the coming recession he sees as arriving as the calendar turns. In The NAVigator segment, Mark Milner of Parametric Portfolio Associates, says that a lot of closed-end fund asset classes have now reached double-digit discount territory, "which historically has been a good opportunity to buy closed-end funds," although he worries about a coming boom in year-end tax-loss selling -- larger than in years past as a result of the market's 2023 downturn -- could impact closed

Matt Freund, co-chief investment officer at Calamos Investments, says that the market has taken the pain of higher rates but is watching that work its way through the economy and corporate earnings while facing wildcards like Covid-19, war in Ukraine and more that could extend current troubles. Still, despite an "epically bad" start to the year for the bond market -- coupled with hard times in equities -- Freund says that it is "not a foregone conclusion" that what lies ahead is a crash, and he expects the downturn to pass from here with a more limited amount of financial pain. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice-chairman at VettaFi, focuses on free cash-flow and quality domestic companies with his pick for "ETF of the Week," and Michael Campagna, senior investment analyst at Moerus Capital Management returns to the Market Call to discuss deep-value investing and just how messy he is willing to get in a market where the global valuation picture has been changing rapidly.  

Christopher Davis, chairman and portfolio manager at Davis Advisors and the Davis Funds, says that "the bubble has been pricked" on the "crazy, hyper-speculative" growth companies, but that has put some names into the stock market's sweet spot, especially for investors with long time horizons and a value-investing bent. A year ago on the show , Davis said that a hybrid value style that encompassed "undervalued growth companies and value stocks that can grow" would be well positioned for whatever the market could dish out, and he now says the strategy has proven its worth; while the markets have bloodied all investors, Davis believes it has positioned investors to be long-term winners by staying the course. Also on the show, Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's latest survey showing that inflation concerns are making investors even more nervous that their retirement savings are falling behind, and Chuck talks about his annual Halloween "cash or candy" giveaway and how he w

Tom Siomades, chief investment officer at AE Wealth Management and Advisors Excel, says that he believes the economy has been in recession for much of this year, and that he sees that ending as soon as the Federal Reserve gets inflation under control, which he expects to happen by early next year. He notes that the pundits calling for recession next year are late to the game; meanwhile, that time frame makes it easier for investors to stay the course with the investment portfolios built during the bull market. Also on the show, Matt Brannon of Clever Real Estate discusses the site's new survey showing that inflation is forcing roughly 40 percent of Americans to change buying habits on everyday goods, but which also highlights ways in which consumers misunderstand how inflation works and how bad the current situation is relative to the past. And in the Market Call, portfolio manager Adam Coons of Winthrop Capital Management discusses exchange-traded funds and the difficulty of finding issues that can be produc

Scott Knapp, chief market strategist at CUNA Mutual Group, says that central bankers are engineering a recession in order to kill inflation, and that investors are asking the wrong questions when they wonder how deep and how long a recession will be instead of wondering whether the mild recession most people expect will be enough to get the job done and fix the problem. Knapp believes that inflation is stubborn enough -- and that core inflation is accelerating -- to force a "more meaningful recession" that creates a longer downturn. Despite that forecast, Knapp says he is sticking with current asset allocations to ride things out, noting that a lot of the recession is already priced into the market. Also on the show, Kyle Guske of New Constructs revisits Tesla in "The Danegr Zone," discussing whether Elon Musk's distractions are adding pressure to a tenuous market position, Jenn Tracy discusses an IPX1031 survey in which half of Americans say that their dream home is "unattainable" in today's rising-rate, hig

Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union, says he thinks there is at least a 50 percent chance of a recession, but says that the whole idea that the Federal Reserve can "engineer a soft landing is a fairy tale," noting that a perfect ending to today's economic troubles isn't impossible, but "if it happens, it's just going to happen because it happened," not because the Fed actions caused it.  Frick notes "a mild recession could be a tonic to a lot of what ails the economy right now." Also on the show, Gretchen Lam, senior portfolio manager at Octagon Credit Investors talks about how rising interest rates are helping the credit market now -- minimizing losses compared to most fixed-income investments -- and how loans have performed during periods of rate hikes in the past; Anna Mabry of Calvert Impact Capital discusses "community investment notes," direct investments that individuals can buy for as little as $50 that function as a fixed-income alternative while also trying to make a posit

Michael Sincere, author of the Michael Sincere's Long-Term Trader column on MarketWatch.com, says that there are nine stages to a bear market and that the recent rallies are proving that this downturn isn't quite halfway through those steps, making the road to recovery long. He expects the bear market to last for at least another 12 months, and while he sees some potential rallies in there -- and even sees potential for a significant spike higher -- he suggests investors should be wary about taking the bait and should maintain a slug of cash (money market funds and short-duration Treasury funds) in their asset allocation until the technicals support that the recovery is on. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of Vetta Fi puts a happy face on a brand new fund in the "ETF of the Week," Jaime Dunaway-Seale of Clever Real Estate discusses a recent survey showing that a surprising number of Americans would be willing to buy a haunted house in order to get a home in these competitive, higher-cost times for the real estate

Craig Callahan, founder and chief executive officer at the ICON Funds -- who correctly called the bottom of the pandemic-driven bear market in March 2020 -- says that there are signs that the stock market has been through the ringer, but it's not yet showing enough signs that it has reached a bottom. Callahan says the market is roughly at fair value, not nearly beaten up enough to create the kind of widespread bargains normally found at a market bottom. the way it typically would be in As a result, he is holding maximum cash, waiting for inflation to start to ease, which should key the market reaction that puts him back in a buying mood. Also on the show, Rich Compson, head of managed accounts at Fidelity Investments talks about "direct indexing" or personalized indexing, and how it is now available to average investors with much smaller account balances; and in the Market Call, Scott Davies, founder and chief investment officer at CDAM, talks about international value investing now.

Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist for the Carson Group, says that while investors are suffering with the struggling market, he does not see a deep, protracted recession, and he says that investors who have priced in a much bigger downturn have created a buying opportunity that people may struggle to take advantage of because of the emotions of the downturn; he cites a number of data points that have him overweight to equities relative to fixed income now, which is a contrary position to many money managers now. Also on the show,  Bob Pisani, senior markets correspondent for CNBC discusses his new book out today, "Shut Up and Keep Talking: Lessons on Life and Investing from the Floor of the New York Stock Exchange," and Nicholas Bohnsack, chief executive officer at Strategas Asset Management discusses "macro thematic opportunities" and the stocks that represent those opportunities now.

David Goerz, chief executive officer at Strategic Frontier Management, says that some well-known blue-chip companies are trading at single-digit price-earnings ratios lower than in the last two decades, creating opportunities for investors, but we are in an environment where investors could sell stocks and buy bonds expecting a better return, and the only asset class that he thinks can generate a positive return is cash. Goerz defends holding more cash right now despite an inflation rate that ultimately gives cash investments a negative real return, noting that losing a little ground to inflation is still a better outcome than losing a lot of ground in stocks and bonds. Also on the show, Matt Schulz, chief credit analyst at LendingTree, discusses a survey showing that nearly everyone across the country is planning to celebrate Halloween and plans to spend more money doing it, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a stock in The Danger Zone that he says was not rescued by a white knight recently but was instead pu

Warren Pierson, co-chief investment officer at the Baird Funds, says that after a long period where bond payouts were so low that investors had no choice and no alternative but to invest in stocks, things have now moved to where investors should be looking at bond yields because that's where they can find good values now.  Pierson says that odds of a recession have risen, and while he does not expect a particularly long or difficult economic downturn, he believes investors should focus on investment-grade, quality bonds to ride it out. Also on the show, Duncan Farley, portfolio manager for the BlueBay Destra International Event-Driven Credit Fund, talks about alternative fixed-income opportunities, Zach Gildehaus of Edward Jones discusses charitable giving and making donations go farther and do more, and Nancy Prial, co-chief executive officer at Essex Investment Management, makes her debut in the Market Call talking about small-cap stocks.  

Nick Sargen, senior economic advisor at Fort Washington Investment Advisors, says that investors didn't expect the Federal Reserve to let troubling times linger, but now the central bank can't make a change on a dime, so investors should  now be waiting for the Fed to pivot on its strategy, a change he does not think will happen soon.  Sargen expects a recession that is "not that long and not that deep," though he acknowledges there is enough uncertainty to make it last longer before those weak spots can be shored up. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi looks to an international fund that hedges currency risk -- a hot topic in today's markets -- for his ETF of the Week, Maria Feller of SurePayroll talks about a survey showing that nearly 40 percent of Americans find that subscription services -- managing them and getting the most out of their money -- is adding to their financial stress, and in the Market Call, Justin Carbonneau, vice president at Validea.com discusses the ways in which legendary investors

Anwiti Bahuguna, head of multi-asset strategy at Columbia Threadneedle Investments -- senior portfolio manager of the Columbia Thermostat Fund -- says that the sell-off in stocks has not been the result of bad earnings reports, but rather has been driven by multiple compression, and until investors are willing to pay more for earnings, the stock and bond markets will be muted at best. Investors won't likely come around until the Federal Reserve signals its intentions on whether it will continue or halt its program of interest rates hikes; until that is clear, Bahuguna says there's too much uncertainty to be anything more than neutral about current conditions. Also on the show, Dave Sekera,  chief U.S. market strategist at Morningstar, says in the Market Call segment that the market's woes have pushed a lot of stock valuations attractively below fair-value estimates, making stocks like Meta Platforms, Google, the communications industry and much more into attractive buying ranges, noting that while investors m